Sport Picks
Sertanense vs SB Castelo Branco
Portugal
Campeonato de Portugal - Group C 2024/2025 
Match Events
49'
49'
Picarra G.
49'
49'
Picarra G.
AI Match Summary
Neither side could be separated in this Campeonato de Portugal - Group C 2024/2025 matchup, with the score ending 0-0.
Win Probability Meter
Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles
20%
20%
60%
Draw rate projection: 20% Favored: SB Castelo Branco
Model Confidence
Aggregate indicator score
20%
/ Low Confidence
- Form's been kind to SB Castelo Branco lately — more wins on the board than Sertanense.
- Model puts this one close, with a 40% draw probability.
- Regular Campeonato de Portugal - Group C 2024/2025 form gives a decent read on both sides.
- Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.
Goal Probability Engine
Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories
Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 27%
Over 3.5 Goals 16.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 7%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 70.2%
Sertanense Clean Sheet 17%
SB Castelo Branco Clean Sheet 19%
Recent Team Form Analysis
Averages per match over historical game filters
| Metric | Sertanense | SB Castelo Branco |
|---|---|---|
| Matches Played | 30 | 31 |
| Wins | 5 | 17 |
| Draws | 11 | 4 |
| Losses | 14 | 10 |
| Goals Scored | 0.8 | 1.84 |
| Goals Conceded | 1.2 | 1.16 |
| Expected Goals (xG) | 0.74 | 1.43 |
| Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) | 1.10 | 1.40 |
H2H
Historical prediction success rates across key markets
Apr 13, 2025 Campeonato de Portugal - Group C
SB Castelo Branco vs Sertanense
1:0
Jan 5, 2025 Campeonato de Portugal - Group C
Sertanense vs SB Castelo Branco
0:0
Mar 24, 2024 Campeonato de Portugal - Group C
SB Castelo Branco vs Sertanense
1:1
Dec 10, 2023 Campeonato de Portugal - Group C
Sertanense vs SB Castelo Branco
1:2
Feb 26, 2023 Campeonato de Portugal - Group C
Sertanense vs SB Castelo Branco
1:1
SokaPicks Momentum Index
Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)
Sertanense 31 / 100
SB Castelo Branco 30 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).
Attack & Defence Capability Index
Sertanense SB Castelo Branco
AI Prediction Engine Forecast
Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets
Primary Pick Draw (X)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 1:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5
SokaPicks Smart Insights
Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system
SB Castelo Branco has conceded goals in 61% of their last 31 outings.
Historical meetings average 1.60 goals per match.
SB Castelo Branco's recent record shows 3 losses from the last 5 matches.
Sertanense scored in 53% of their last 30 games.
Scoring Trends
Sertanense VS SB Castelo Branco
0.6 Goals Scored 1.25
1.6 Goals Conceded 0.88
80% Over 1.5 75%
20% Over 2.5 25%
20% Over 3.5 13%
Recent Form & Match History
Sertanense
(Home) 27 Sept
O Elvas CAD
2 : 0 Sertanense
13 Sept
Sertanense
1 : 1 Malveira
30 Aug
Alcains
1 : 0 Sertanense
23 Aug
Sertanense
1 : 3 Mortagua FC
16 Aug
Nogueirense
1 : 1 Sertanense
Page 1 of 6
13 Sept
Sertanense
1 : 1 Malveira
23 Aug
Sertanense
1 : 3 Mortagua FC
06 Apr
Sertanense
3 : 1 Alcains
16 Mar
Sertanense
0 : 2 Mortagua FC
02 Mar
Sertanense
0 : 0 O Elvas CAD
Page 1 of 3
SB Castelo Branco
(Away) 13 Sept
SB Castelo Branco
2 : 3 Nogueirense
06 Sept
Alverca B
0 : 1 SB Castelo Branco
29 Aug
Fatima
3 : 1 SB Castelo Branco
23 Aug
SB Castelo Branco
1 : 4 Naval 1893
16 Aug
Oliveira Hospital
2 : 3 SB Castelo Branco
Page 1 of 7
06 Sept
Alverca B
0 : 1 SB Castelo Branco
29 Aug
Fatima
3 : 1 SB Castelo Branco
16 Aug
Oliveira Hospital
2 : 3 SB Castelo Branco
18 Apr
Fatima
4 : 1 SB Castelo Branco
04 Apr
GD Peniche
0 : 2 SB Castelo Branco
Page 1 of 4
League Standings
| Pos | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | O Elvas CAD | 26 | 20 | 5 | 1 | 41:10 | 65 |
| 2 | Fatima | 26 | 14 | 7 | 5 | 30:12 | 49 |
| 3 | Arronches Benfica | 26 | 13 | 9 | 4 | 27:17 | 48 |
| 4 | GD Peniche | 26 | 10 | 9 | 7 | 31:23 | 39 |
| 5 | Os Marialvas | 26 | 9 | 10 | 7 | 30:28 | 37 |
| 6 | Mortagua FC | 26 | 8 | 13 | 5 | 23:21 | 37 |
| 7 | Marinhense | 26 | 9 | 9 | 8 | 24:21 | 36 |
| 8 | Alverca B | 26 | 9 | 8 | 9 | 28:25 | 35 |
| 9 | SB Castelo Branco | 26 | 8 | 10 | 8 | 23:21 | 34 |
| 10 | SC Pombal | 26 | 8 | 8 | 10 | 29:34 | 32 |
| 11 | Uniao de Coimbra | 26 | 6 | 7 | 13 | 26:44 | 25 |
| 12 | Sertanense | 26 | 4 | 9 | 13 | 23:33 | 21 |
| 13 | Alcains | 26 | 4 | 6 | 16 | 17:36 | 18 |
| 14 | Pero Pinheiro | 26 | 2 | 6 | 18 | 12:39 | 12 |
Promotion - Campeonato de Portugal - Group A 2024/2025 (Promotion Group)
