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Sestri Levante vs Lucchese - H2H Analysis, Preview & Predictions

Italy Italy

Serie C - Group A 2024/2025 Giuseppe Sivori, Sestri Levante
Our Tip

Match Events

19' Event
Brunet J.
36' Event
Nunziatini F.
43'
Visconti E.

AI Match Summary

Sestri Levante in this Serie C - Group A 2024/2025 tie, finishing 2-1. One-off knockout football delivers a decisive result.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

23%
Sestri Levante
20%
Draws
57%
Lucchese
Draw rate projection: 20% Favored: Lucchese

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

57% / Medium Confidence
  • Attack-wise there's a gap: Lucchese at 1.75 per game, Sestri Levante at 1.39.
  • Win probability leans Lucchese's way, sitting at 90%.
  • Both sides arrive with similar form. In a knockout tie, that makes this genuinely unpredictable.
  • Historical meetings favor Sestri Levante, who have won 1 of the last 5 encounters.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 91%
Over 1.5 Goals 81.5%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 22%
Over 4.5 Goals 10%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 35.6%
Sestri Levante Clean Sheet 11%
Lucchese Clean Sheet 68%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Sestri Levante Lucchese
Matches Played 31 28
Wins 12 12
Draws 7 8
Losses 12 8
Goals Scored 1.39 1.75
Goals Conceded 1.19 1.68
Expected Goals (xG) 1.38 1.81
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

May 17, 2025 Serie C - Group A
Lucchese vs Sestri Levante
1:0
May 10, 2025 Serie C - Group A
Sestri Levante vs Lucchese
2:1
Feb 23, 2025 Serie C - Group B
Sestri Levante vs Lucchese
1:1
Oct 11, 2024 Serie C - Group B
Lucchese vs Sestri Levante
0:0
Jan 14, 2024 Serie C - Group B
Lucchese vs Sestri Levante
1:3

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Sestri Levante Compare

Top Goalscorer Brunet J.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Nunziatini F.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.06
Avg xA / game 0.69

Lucchese Compare

Top Goalscorer Saporiti E.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.65
Avg xA / game 1.01

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Sestri Levante 10 / 100
Lucchese 95 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Sestri Levante Lucchese

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Lucchese Win (2)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 0:1
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Sestri Levante's goal record stands at 71% scoring rate across 31 recent games.

Defensive concern: Lucchese conceded in 71% of 28 recent games.

H2H data points to 2.00 goals as a typical output.

Sestri Levante went unbeaten in 2 of their last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Sestri Levante VS Lucchese
1.38 Goals Scored 2
1.63 Goals Conceded 1.38
100% Over 1.5 63%
63% Over 2.5 63%
25% Over 3.5 50%

Recent Form & Match History

Sestri Levante

(Home)
04 Oct
Borgosesia Calcio
0 : 1
Sestri Levante
27 Sept
Sestri Levante
1 : 2
AS Biellese
20 Sept
GSD Lascaris
1 : 1
Sestri Levante
16 Sept
Sestri Levante
0 : 3
Fezzanese
13 Sept
Alessandria
2 : 1
Sestri Levante
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Lucchese

(Away)
04 Oct
Grassina
3 : 6
Lucchese
27 Sept
Lucchese
3 : 2
Siena
20 Sept
Rondinella
0 : 0
Lucchese
16 Sept
Lucchese
5 : 0
SCD Progresso
12 Sept
Seravezza Pozzi
5 : 0
Lucchese
Page 1 of 6

Tournament Bracket & Draw

Final
Caldiero Terme 0
Triestina 0
Pro Patria 1
Pro Vercelli 1
AC Milan U23 1
Spal 2
Sestri Levante 2
Lucchese 2
ACR Messina 0
Foggia 1