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Stadium Background

Seychelles vs Lesotho

Africa Africa

Africa Cup of Nations Toyota Stadium (Free State), Bloemfontein
Our Tip

AI Match Summary

First leg ended 2-1. This leg finished 0-0.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

12%
Seychelles
30%
Draws
58%
Lesotho
Draw rate projection: 30% Favored: Lesotho

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

58% / Medium Confidence
  • Lesotho have won more games recently than Seychelles.
  • 58% — that's where the model lands on Lesotho taking it.
  • Lesotho arrive in better shape, but cup ties don't always follow form.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 97%
Over 1.5 Goals 87%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 22%
Over 4.5 Goals 10%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 26.4%
Seychelles Clean Sheet 10%
Lesotho Clean Sheet 68%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Seychelles Lesotho
Matches Played 30 35
Wins 1 10
Draws 5 9
Losses 24 16
Goals Scored 0.4 0.77
Goals Conceded 2.9 1.49
Expected Goals (xG) 1.14 2.52
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Mar 29, 2026 Africa Cup of Nations
Lesotho vs Seychelles
2:1
Mar 26, 2026 Africa Cup of Nations
Seychelles vs Lesotho
0:0
Jun 28, 2024 COSAFA Cup
Lesotho vs Seychelles
1:1
Mar 27, 2022 Africa Cup of Nations
Lesotho vs Seychelles
3:1
Mar 23, 2022 Africa Cup of Nations
Seychelles vs Lesotho
0:0

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Seychelles 10 / 100
Lesotho 95 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Seychelles Lesotho

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Lesotho Win (2)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 0:1
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Defensive concern: Lesotho conceded in 69% of 35 recent games.

H2H data points to 1.80 goals as a typical output.

Seychelles's goal record stands at 33% scoring rate across 30 recent games.

Recent resilience: Seychelles stayed unbeaten in 1 of the last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Seychelles VS Lesotho
0.14 Goals Scored 0.75
4.29 Goals Conceded 2.13
86% Over 1.5 88%
86% Over 2.5 75%
71% Over 3.5 25%

Recent Form & Match History

Seychelles

(Home)
29 Mar
Lesotho
2 : 1
Seychelles
26 Mar
Seychelles
0 : 0
Lesotho
14 Oct
Seychelles
0 : 7
Gambia
10 Oct
Seychelles
0 : 7
Ivory Coast
09 Sept
Kenya
5 : 0
Seychelles
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Lesotho

(Away)
07 Jun
Kenya
4 : 0
Lesotho
04 Jun
Lesotho
1 : 1
Kenya
29 Mar
Lesotho
2 : 1
Seychelles
26 Mar
Seychelles
0 : 0
Lesotho
18 Nov
Lesotho
0 : 1
Malawi
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Tournament Bracket & Draw

Final
Djibouti 1
South Sudan 4
Chad 0
Burundi 8
Somalia 1
Mauritius 0
Seychelles 1
Lesotho 2
Eritrea 4
Eswatini 1
Sao Tome and Principe 0
Ethiopia 4