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Shaanxi Northwest vs Chongqing Tonglianglong

China China

FA Cup 2025
Our Tip

AI Match Summary

Shaanxi Northwest play Chongqing Tonglianglong in the FA Cup 2025. Shaanxi Northwest are favorites here. Recently, Shaanxi Northwest averaged 2 goals scored and 1 conceded. Chongqing Tonglianglong averaged 1.13 goals scored and 1 conceded. In past meetings, Shaanxi Northwest won 0, Chongqing Tonglianglong won 1, and they drew 0. Their last match on Apr 19, 2025 ended 0:1. Our numbers estimate xG of 0.92 for Shaanxi Northwest and 1.36 for Chongqing Tonglianglong. This points to a Shaanxi Northwest double chance or over markets.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

60%
Shaanxi Northwest
25%
Draws
15%
Chongqing Tonglianglong
Draw rate projection: 25% Favored: Shaanxi Northwest

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

91% / Very High Confidence
  • Shaanxi Northwest picked up more points recently compared to Chongqing Tonglianglong.
  • Model forecasts higher goal threat for the host (0.92 vs 1.36 xG).
  • Past meetings show a clear pattern favoring the home side.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 91%
Over 1.5 Goals 58%
Over 2.5 Goals 36%
Over 3.5 Goals 22%
Over 4.5 Goals 11%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 39%
Shaanxi Northwest Clean Sheet 18%
Chongqing Tonglianglong Clean Sheet 16%
First Half Goal 52%
Second Half Goal 55%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Shaanxi Northwest Chongqing Tonglianglong
Matches Played 2 30
Wins 1 14
Draws 0 8
Losses 1 8
Goals Scored 2 1.13
Goals Conceded 1 1

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Apr 19, 2025 FA Cup
Shaanxi Northwest vs Chongqing Tonglianglong
0:1

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Shaanxi Northwest Compare

Avg xG / game 0
Avg xA / game 0

Chongqing Tonglianglong Compare

Top Goalscorer Ruan Qilong
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.48
Avg xA / game 0.91

Sokapicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Shaanxi Northwest 58 / 100
Chongqing Tonglianglong 17 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Shaanxi Northwest Chongqing Tonglianglong

Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Shaanxi Northwest Win (1)
Secondary Pick Shaanxi Northwest & Under 3.5
First Half Result Home Win (HT)
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

Value Bet Detector (+EV)

Matches where our model probability exceeds implied bookmaker odds

1X2 Home Win
Value Edge +15.2%
1.92
Goals Over/Under Over 2.5 Goals
Value Edge +19.9%
3.33
*EV represents Expected Value. A positive value edge means the bookmaker has priced the selection significantly below its true statistical likelihood.

Attacking Heatmaps & Shot Locations

Dynamic heat overlays computed from tactical zone entries

Shaanxi Northwest attacking → ← attacking Chongqing Tonglianglong

Sokapicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Shaanxi Northwest scored in 50% of their last 2 games.

Chongqing Tonglianglong let in goals in 53% of their last 30 matches.

Games between these two average 1.00 goals.

Shaanxi Northwest went unbeaten in 1 of their last 5 games.

Chongqing Tonglianglong lost 2 of their last 5 games.

Interactive Team Comparison Slider

Side-by-side comparison of team metrics

3 Points in last 5 50
0.00 Goals expected (xG) 1.63
0.00 Goals conceded expected (xGA) 0.63