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Shabab Baalbeck vs Al Ahed Prediction & H2H Stats

Lebanon Lebanon

Premier League 2024/2025
Our Tip

Match Events

11' Event
Samih M.
52' Event
Zbib M.
90' Event
Mansour N.

AI Match Summary

The Premier League 2024/2025 game between Shabab Baalbeck and Al Ahed finished 1-2, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Al Ahed.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

60%
Shabab Baalbeck
20%
Draws
20%
Al Ahed
Draw rate projection: 20% Favored: Shabab Baalbeck

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

20% / Low Confidence
  • Look at the last few games and Al Ahed come out ahead of Shabab Baalbeck on wins alone.
  • Model puts this one close, with a 39% draw probability.
  • Regular Premier League 2024/2025 form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).
  • History favors Al Ahed here — 5 wins from the last 5 head-to-heads.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 0%
Over 4.5 Goals 0%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 30.400000000000002%
Shabab Baalbeck Clean Sheet 24%
Al Ahed Clean Sheet 68%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Shabab Baalbeck Al Ahed
Matches Played 30 30
Wins 4 14
Draws 6 4
Losses 20 12
Goals Scored 0.7 1.43
Goals Conceded 2.27 1.33
Expected Goals (xG) 0.97 0.93
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Mar 2, 2025 Premier League
Shabab Baalbeck vs Al Ahed
1:2
Jan 25, 2019 Premier League
Al Ahed vs Shabab Baalbeck
1:0
Oct 7, 2018 Premier League
Shabab Baalbeck vs Al Ahed
0:1
Jan 20, 2018 Premier League
Al Ahed vs Shabab Baalbeck
4:1
Dec 9, 2017 Premier League
Shabab Baalbeck vs Al Ahed
0:2

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Shabab Baalbeck Compare

Top Goalscorer Samih M.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 0.75
Avg xA / game 0.48

Al Ahed Compare

Top Goalscorer Zbib M.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Mansour N.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 0.85
Avg xA / game 0.52

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Shabab Baalbeck 33 / 100
Al Ahed 41 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Shabab Baalbeck Al Ahed

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Al Ahed Win (2)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 0:3
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Al Ahed's defensive record shows goals conceded in 73% of 30 matches.

Games between these two average 2.40 goals.

Difficult form: Al Ahed registered 3 defeats in their last 5 games.

Shabab Baalbeck scored in 53% of their last 30 games.

Scoring Trends

- VS Al Ahed
0 Goals Scored 0.75
0 Goals Conceded 0.75
0% Over 1.5 38%
0% Over 2.5 25%
0% Over 3.5 0%

Recent Form & Match History

Shabab Baalbeck

(Home)
05 Jul
Al Sahel
5 : 1
Shabab Baalbeck
01 Jul
Shabab Baalbeck
0 : 3
Bourj
25 Jun
Shabab Baalbeck
1 : 0
Racing
19 Jun
Al Ghazieh
1 : 2
Shabab Baalbeck
14 Jun
Al Riyadi Abbasiyah
3 : 0
Shabab Baalbeck
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Al Ahed

(Away)
01 Aug
Al Ahed
2 : 2
Jwayya SC
28 Jul
Nejmeh SC
2 : 1
Al Ahed
24 Jul
Al Ahed
1 : 1
Al Ansar
20 Jul
Jwayya SC
2 : 0
Al Ahed
16 Jul
Al Ahed
0 : 2
Nejmeh SC
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League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Al Ansar 11 10 1 0 31:7 31
2 Safa 11 9 2 0 30:4 29
3 Al Ahed 11 9 1 1 34:11 28
4 Nejmeh SC 11 5 2 4 12:8 17
5 Al Hikma 11 4 4 3 12:11 16
6 Tadamon 11 4 2 5 13:14 14
7 Al Sahel 11 4 1 6 14:21 13
8 Racing 11 1 6 4 4:14 9
9 Al Riyadi Abbasiyah 11 1 5 5 7:15 8
10 Bourj 11 2 1 8 7:21 7
11 Al Ghazieh 11 1 3 7 5:18 6
12 Shabab Baalbeck 11 1 2 8 4:29 5
Promotion - Premier League 2024/2025 (Winners stage)
Relegation - Premier League 2024/2025 (Losers stage)