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Shabab Baalbeck vs Bourj

Lebanon Lebanon

Premier League 2024/2025
Our Tip

Match Events

87' Event
Ibrahima S.

AI Match Summary

Bourj in this Premier League 2024/2025 matchup, with the score ending 0-1 — backing the pre-match view that favored Bourj.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

43%
Shabab Baalbeck
15%
Draws
42%
Bourj
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: Shabab Baalbeck

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

15% / Low Confidence
  • Bourj have won more games recently than Shabab Baalbeck.
  • 40% chance of a draw — the model doesn't see a clear favorite.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.
  • These two have met 5 times recently and Bourj have taken 4 of them.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 38%
Over 3.5 Goals 16.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 7%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 66.6%
Shabab Baalbeck Clean Sheet 10%
Bourj Clean Sheet 18%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Shabab Baalbeck Bourj
Matches Played 30 32
Wins 4 17
Draws 6 4
Losses 20 11
Goals Scored 0.7 1.22
Goals Conceded 2.27 1.19
Expected Goals (xG) 0.78 1.89
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Jul 1, 2025 Premier League
Shabab Baalbeck vs Bourj
0:3
Jun 1, 2025 Premier League
Shabab Baalbeck vs Bourj
0:1
May 1, 2025 Premier League
Bourj vs Shabab Baalbeck
0:2
Feb 19, 2025 Premier League
Shabab Baalbeck vs Bourj
1:3
Mar 22, 2024 Lebanese Cup
Shabab Baalbeck vs Bourj
0:3

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Shabab Baalbeck Compare

Avg xG / game 0.6
Avg xA / game 0.39

Bourj Compare

Top Goalscorer Ibrahima S.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.72
Avg xA / game 1.05

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Shabab Baalbeck 30 / 100
Bourj 30 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Shabab Baalbeck Bourj

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Draw (X)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 1:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Defensive concern: Bourj conceded in 66% of 32 recent games.

Historical meetings average 2.60 goals per match.

Difficult form: Bourj registered 3 defeats in their last 5 games.

Attacking prowess: Shabab Baalbeck scored in 53% of their last 30 outings.

Scoring Trends

Shabab Baalbeck VS Bourj
0.8 Goals Scored 1.38
2.4 Goals Conceded 0.75
80% Over 1.5 63%
80% Over 2.5 63%
20% Over 3.5 13%

Recent Form & Match History

Shabab Baalbeck

(Home)
05 Jul
Al Sahel
5 : 1
Shabab Baalbeck
01 Jul
Shabab Baalbeck
0 : 3
Bourj
25 Jun
Shabab Baalbeck
1 : 0
Racing
19 Jun
Al Ghazieh
1 : 2
Shabab Baalbeck
14 Jun
Al Riyadi Abbasiyah
3 : 0
Shabab Baalbeck
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Bourj

(Away)
30 Dec
Al Ansar
4 : 1
Bourj
25 Dec
Bourj
1 : 4
Al Ahed
19 Dec
Bourj
1 : 0
Al Riyadi Abbasiyah
12 Dec
Bourj
2 : 1
Racing
06 Dec
Al Sahel
1 : 0
Bourj
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