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Shakhtar vs Obolon

Ukraine Ukraine

Premier League 2025/2026 Arena Lviv, Lviv
Our Tip

Match Events

9' Event
Luca Meirelles
Assist: Pedrinho
14' Event
Ghram A.
Assist: Newerton
23'
Chekh M.

AI Match Summary

Shakhtar in this Premier League 2025/2026 matchup, with the score ending 3-1 — backing the pre-match view that favored Shakhtar.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

30%
Shakhtar
39%
Draws
31%
Obolon
Draw rate projection: 39% Favored: Draw

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

65% / Medium Confidence
  • Shakhtar have won more games recently than Obolon.
  • Model puts this one close, with a 39% draw probability.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).
  • These two have met 5 times recently and Shakhtar have taken 5 of them.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 50.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 23%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 33.2%
Shakhtar Clean Sheet 68%
Obolon Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Shakhtar Obolon
Matches Played 27 28
Wins 19 7
Draws 3 12
Losses 5 9
Goals Scored 2.25 1.25
Goals Conceded 1 1
Expected Goals (xG) 2.25 1.25
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.00 1.00

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

May 13, 2026 Premier League
Shakhtar vs Obolon
3:1
Nov 22, 2025 Premier League
Obolon vs Shakhtar
0:6
Mar 29, 2025 Premier League
Obolon vs Shakhtar
0:2
Sep 23, 2024 Premier League
Shakhtar vs Obolon
4:0
Mar 30, 2024 Premier League
Obolon vs Shakhtar
0:3

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Shakhtar Compare

Top Goalscorer Luca Meirelles
1 Goals
Assists Leader Ghram A.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.73
Avg xA / game 1.13

Obolon Compare

Top Goalscorer Chekh M.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.14
Avg xA / game 0.69

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Shakhtar 41 / 100
Obolon 30 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Shakhtar Obolon

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick SHA Win (1)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals & BTTS No
Correct Score 3:0
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Shakhtar found the back of the net in 93% of recent matches (27 games).

H2H data points to 3.80 goals as a typical output.

Obolon has conceded goals in 75% of their last 28 outings.

Recent resilience: Shakhtar stayed unbeaten in 4 of the last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Shakhtar VS Obolon
2.25 Goals Scored 1.25
1 Goals Conceded 1
75% Over 1.5 63%
75% Over 2.5 38%
63% Over 3.5 38%

Recent Form & Match History

Shakhtar

(Home)
21 Jul
Slaven Belupo
2 : 2
Shakhtar
19 Jul
Rudes
0 : 5
Shakhtar
21 May
Shakhtar
0 : 1
Kolos Kovalivka
17 May
Kryvbas
2 : 3
Shakhtar
13 May
Shakhtar
3 : 1
Obolon
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Obolon

(Away)
21 Jul
Livyi Bereg
2 : 2
Obolon
18 Jul
Obolon
3 : 1
Kolos Kovalivka 2
15 Jul
Obolon
3 : 2
FC Chernihiv
10 Jul
Obolon
0 : 0
UCSA
07 Jul
Obolon
0 : 0
Lokomotyv Kyiv
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League Standings

PosTeamPWDLGDPts
1Shakhtar30226271:2172
2LNZ Cherkasy30186639:1760
3Polissya Zhytomyr30185751:2159
4Dynamo Kyiv30176766:3657
5FC Kharkiv301312536:1951
6Kolos Kovalivka301310730:2549
7Kryvbas30139853:4648
8Zorya301210842:3646
9Karpaty Lviv301011940:3141
10Epitsentr30881436:4532
11Veres Rivne307101326:4031
12Obolon307101328:4931
13Kudrivka30771632:4828
14Rukh Lviv30632120:5121
15Oleksandriya30381924:5817
16SC Poltava30272123:7413
Promotion - Europa League (Qualification)
Promotion - Champions League (League phase)
Promotion - Conference League (Qualification)
Relegation - Premier League 2025/2026 (Relegation)
Relegation - Persha Liga (Main)