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Shamakhi vs Qarabag Agdam

Azerbaijan Azerbaijan

Azerbaijan Cup Shamakhi City Stadium
Our Tip

Match Events

13'
Rossi K.
26' Event
Rossi K.
42' Event
Rossi K.

AI Match Summary

The Azerbaijan Cup game between Shamakhi and Qarabag Agdam finished 2-1, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Shamakhi.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

18%
Shamakhi
22%
Draws
60%
Qarabag Agdam
Draw rate projection: 22% Favored: Qarabag Agdam

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

82% / Very High Confidence
  • Shamakhi haven't matched Qarabag Agdam's recent run of results.
  • Win probability leans Qarabag Agdam's way, sitting at 60%.
  • It's a cup tie, so expect more urgency than a normal Azerbaijan Cup game.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 99%
Over 1.5 Goals 94%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 32.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 15%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 69.4%
Shamakhi Clean Sheet 10%
Qarabag Agdam Clean Sheet 11%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Shamakhi Qarabag Agdam
Matches Played 31 38
Wins 10 21
Draws 9 5
Losses 12 12
Goals Scored 1.2 2.13
Goals Conceded 2.2 1.38
Expected Goals (xG) 1.20 2.13
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 2.20 1.38

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Apr 11, 2026 Premier League
Shamakhi vs Qarabag Agdam
0:0
Mar 4, 2026 Azerbaijan Cup
Qarabag Agdam vs Shamakhi
3:1
Feb 10, 2026 Premier League
Shamakhi vs Qarabag Agdam
1:2
Feb 5, 2026 Azerbaijan Cup
Shamakhi vs Qarabag Agdam
2:1
Oct 26, 2025 Premier League
Qarabag Agdam vs Shamakhi
0:0

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Shamakhi Compare

Top Goalscorer Rossi K.
2 Goals
Avg xG / game 0.92
Avg xA / game 0.6

Qarabag Agdam Compare

Top Goalscorer Qurbanly M.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.94
Avg xA / game 1.18

Sokapicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Shamakhi 18 / 100
Qarabag Agdam 56 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Shamakhi Qarabag Agdam

Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick QAR Win (2)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals & BTTS Yes
Correct Score 1:2
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

Sokapicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Shamakhi found the back of the net in 61% of recent matches (31 games).

Qarabag Agdam has conceded goals in 63% of their last 38 outings.

Historical meetings average 2.00 goals per match.

Recent resilience: Shamakhi stayed unbeaten in 2 of the last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Shamakhi VS Qarabag Agdam
1.2 Goals Scored 2.13
2.2 Goals Conceded 1.38
100% Over 1.5 88%
80% Over 2.5 75%
40% Over 3.5 25%

Tournament Bracket & Draw

1/16-finals
Sabail0
Shamakhi1
Goygol0
Baku Sporting2
Qarabag Agdam-
TBD-
Karvan3
Sheki City1
Lokbatan2
Imisli FK3
TBD-
Sabah Baku-
Gabala5
Mingachevir1
Cebrayil0
Safa Baku3
Shimal0
Sahdag Qusar2
Dinamo Baki0
Turan5
Araz PFK-
TBD-
Kapaz6
Agstafa Gencleri1
FC Khankendi1
Difai Agsu2
Zaqatala PFK0
SumQayit FK3
Zira FK-
TBD-
Neftci Baku6
MOIK Baku2
1/8-finals
Shamakhi1
Baku Sporting0
Qarabag Agdam3
Karvan0
Imisli FK1
Sabah Baku2
Gabala2
Safa Baku1
Sahdag Qusar1
Turan2
Araz PFK0
Kapaz1
Difai Agsu1
SumQayit FK3
Zira FK1
Neftci Baku0
Quarter-finals
Shamakhi3
Qarabag Agdam4
Sabah Baku4
Gabala3
Turan3
Kapaz0
SumQayit FK0
Zira FK2
Semi-finals
Qarabag Agdam3
Sabah Baku4
Turan0
Zira FK2
Final
Sabah Baku2
Zira FK1