Sport Picks

Stadium Background

Shamal vs Umm-Salal

Qatar Qatar

QSL 2025/2026 Al Bayt Stadium, Al Khor
Our Tip

Match Events

6' Event
Ebrahimi O.
(Penalty)
37'
Sub
Cristo In: Baidoo M.
Out: Cristo
44'
Khoder M.

AI Match Summary

Shamal in this QSL 2025/2026 matchup, with the score ending 3-2 — backing the pre-match view that favored Shamal.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

37%
Shamal
30%
Draws
33%
Umm-Salal
Draw rate projection: 30% Favored: Shamal

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

37% / Low Confidence
  • Form's been kind to Shamal lately — more wins on the board than Umm-Salal.
  • Shamal are the model's pick here, at 90%.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 80%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 99%
Over 1.5 Goals 94%
Over 2.5 Goals 80%
Over 3.5 Goals 56.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 25%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 75.4%
Shamal Clean Sheet 20%
Umm-Salal Clean Sheet 12%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Shamal Umm-Salal
Matches Played 30 29
Wins 14 11
Draws 6 4
Losses 10 14
Goals Scored 2 1.76
Goals Conceded 1.47 2.41
Expected Goals (xG) 1.20 1.00
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Apr 4, 2026 QSL
Shamal vs Umm-Salal
3:2
Nov 1, 2025 QSL
Umm-Salal vs Shamal
0:5
Sep 3, 2025 QSL Cup
Shamal vs Umm-Salal
1:3
May 13, 2025 Emir Cup
Umm-Salal vs Shamal
2:1
Jan 24, 2025 QSL
Shamal vs Umm-Salal
4:0

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Shamal Compare

Top Goalscorer Bounedjah B.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Collado A.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 0.92
Avg xA / game 0.6

Umm-Salal Compare

Top Goalscorer Mance A.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Jarrar Y.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 0.91
Avg xA / game 0.56

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Shamal 85 / 100
Umm-Salal 10 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Shamal Umm-Salal

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Shamal Win (1)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Shamal's goal record stands at 83% scoring rate across 30 recent games.

Defensive concern: Umm-Salal conceded in 86% of 29 recent games.

H2H data points to 4.20 goals as a typical output.

Shamal has registered 4 games unbeaten in their last 5 outings.

Scoring Trends

Shamal VS Umm-Salal
2.75 Goals Scored 0.88
2.38 Goals Conceded 2.5
100% Over 1.5 88%
88% Over 2.5 75%
75% Over 3.5 38%

Recent Form & Match History

Shamal

(Home)
22 Sept
Al Bidda
0 : 4
Shamal
14 Sept
Shamal
1 : 1
Al Ittihad
10 Sept
Shamal
1 : 1
Al Wakra
04 Sept
Shamal
4 : 2
Al-Shahaniya
01 Sept
Shamal
3 : 4
Al Rayyan
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Umm-Salal

(Away)
21 Sept
Umm-Salal
1 : 0
Al-Kharitiyath
07 Sept
Umm-Salal
1 : 5
Al Khor
30 Aug
Al Mesaimeer
1 : 2
Umm-Salal
25 Aug
Umm-Salal
1 : 1
Qatar U23
08 Aug
Sporting Lokeren
5 : 0
Umm-Salal
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League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Al-Sadd 22 14 3 5 56:30 45
2 Shamal 22 12 4 6 39:28 40
3 Al Rayyan 22 11 5 6 46:32 38
4 Al-Gharafa 22 11 3 8 36:36 36
5 Al-Duhail 22 9 6 7 40:27 33
6 Al Arabi (Qatar) 22 9 5 8 37:41 32
7 Al Wakra 22 8 6 8 36:34 30
8 Qatar SC 22 8 5 9 32:36 29
9 Al Ahli 22 8 2 12 34:43 26
10 Al Sailiya 22 6 4 12 25:38 22
11 Al-Shahaniya 22 6 3 13 22:39 21
12 Umm-Salal 22 6 2 14 37:56 20
Promotion - AFC Champions League (League phase)
Promotion - AFC Champions League (Qualification)
Promotion - AFC Champions League 2 (Main)
Relegation - QSL 2025/2026 (Relegation)
Relegation - QSL 2 (Main)