Sport Picks

Stadium Background

Shamal vs Umm-Salal

Qatar Qatar

QSL 2025/2026 Al Bayt Stadium, Al Khor
Our Tip

Match Events

6' Event
Ebrahimi O.
(Penalty)
37'
Sub
Cristo In: Baidoo M.
Out: Cristo
44'
Khoder M.

AI Match Summary

Shamal in this QSL 2025/2026 matchup, with the score ending 3-2 — backing the pre-match view that favored Shamal.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

50%
Shamal
28%
Draws
22%
Umm-Salal
Draw rate projection: 28% Favored: Shamal

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

76% / High Confidence
  • Form's been kind to Shamal lately — more wins on the board than Umm-Salal.
  • Shamal are the model's pick here, at 50%.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 44%
Over 4.5 Goals 20%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 73.8%
Shamal Clean Sheet 20%
Umm-Salal Clean Sheet 12%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Shamal Umm-Salal
Matches Played 30 30
Wins 13 11
Draws 7 4
Losses 10 15
Goals Scored 1.63 2.38
Goals Conceded 1.13 1.63
Expected Goals (xG) 1.63 2.38
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.13 1.63

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Apr 4, 2026 QSL
Shamal vs Umm-Salal
3:2
Nov 1, 2025 QSL
Umm-Salal vs Shamal
0:5
Sep 3, 2025 QSL Cup
Shamal vs Umm-Salal
1:3
May 13, 2025 Emir Cup
Umm-Salal vs Shamal
2:1
Jan 24, 2025 QSL
Shamal vs Umm-Salal
4:0

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Shamal Compare

Top Goalscorer Bounedjah B.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Collado A.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.25
Avg xA / game 0.81

Umm-Salal Compare

Top Goalscorer Mance A.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Jarrar Y.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 2.16
Avg xA / game 1.32

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Shamal 49 / 100
Umm-Salal 22 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Shamal Umm-Salal

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick SHA Win (1)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals & BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Umm-Salal's defensive record shows goals conceded in 83% of 30 matches.

Historical meetings average 4.20 goals per match.

Difficult form: Umm-Salal registered 5 defeats in their last 5 games.

Attacking prowess: Shamal scored in 73% of their last 30 outings.

Scoring Trends

Shamal VS Umm-Salal
1.63 Goals Scored 2.38
1.13 Goals Conceded 1.63
75% Over 1.5 75%
63% Over 2.5 63%
25% Over 3.5 63%

Recent Form & Match History

Shamal

(Home)
01 May
Shamal
4 : 6
Al-Sadd
27 Apr
Al-Sadd
3 : 2
Shamal
13 Apr
Shamal
3 : 0
Qatar SC
08 Apr
Al-Shahaniya
2 : 0
Shamal
04 Apr
Shamal
3 : 2
Umm-Salal
Page 1 of 6

Umm-Salal

(Away)
01 May
Al-Gharafa
2 : 1
Umm-Salal
27 Apr
Umm-Salal
1 : 3
Al Ahli
08 Apr
Al Rayyan
3 : 0
Umm-Salal
04 Apr
Shamal
3 : 2
Umm-Salal
28 Mar
Al Rayyan
4 : 3
Umm-Salal
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

PosTeamPWDLGDPts
1Al-Sadd22143556:3045
2Shamal22124639:2840
3Al Rayyan22115646:3238
4Al-Gharafa22113836:3636
5Al-Duhail2296740:2733
6Al Arabi (Qatar)2295837:4132
7Al Wakra2286836:3430
8Qatar SC2285932:3629
9Al Ahli22821234:4326
10Al Sailiya22641225:3822
11Al-Shahaniya22631322:3921
12Umm-Salal22621437:5620
Promotion - AFC Champions League (League phase)
Promotion - AFC Champions League (Qualification)
Promotion - AFC Champions League 2 (Main)
Relegation - QSL 2025/2026 (Relegation)
Relegation - QSL 2 (Main)