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Shamrock Rovers vs Derry City

Ireland Ireland

Premier Division Tallaght Stadium
Our Tip

AI Match Summary

Shamrock Rovers play Derry City in the Premier Division. It looks like a close match. Recently, Shamrock Rovers averaged 1.57 goals scored and 0.82 conceded. Derry City averaged 1.32 goals scored and 1.21 conceded. In past meetings, Shamrock Rovers won 1, Derry City won 3, and they drew 1. Their last match on Jun 22, 2026 ended 1:1. Our numbers estimate xG of 1.31 for Shamrock Rovers and 1.19 for Derry City. This points to a Shamrock Rovers double chance or over markets.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

45%
Shamrock Rovers
26%
Draws
29%
Derry City
Draw rate projection: 26% Favored: Shamrock Rovers

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

76% / High Confidence
  • Shamrock Rovers picked up more points recently compared to Derry City.
  • Model forecasts higher goal threat for the host (1.31 vs 1.19 xG).
  • Past meetings show a clear pattern favoring the home side.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 66%
Over 2.5 Goals 46%
Over 3.5 Goals 28%
Over 4.5 Goals 14%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 56%
Shamrock Rovers Clean Sheet 20%
Derry City Clean Sheet 10%
First Half Goal 59%
Second Half Goal 63%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Shamrock Rovers Derry City
Matches Played 28 28
Wins 17 8
Draws 5 11
Losses 6 9
Goals Scored 1.57 1.32
Goals Conceded 0.82 1.21
Expected Goals (xG) 1.38 1.38
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.00 1.25

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Jun 22, 2026 Premier Division
Shamrock Rovers vs Derry City
1:1
Apr 24, 2026 Premier Division
Derry City vs Shamrock Rovers
1:0
Mar 6, 2026 Premier Division
Shamrock Rovers vs Derry City
1:0
Jan 31, 2026 Super Cup
Shamrock Rovers vs Derry City
0:1
Oct 26, 2025 Premier Division
Derry City vs Shamrock Rovers
2:1

Sokapicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Shamrock Rovers 45 / 100
Derry City 28 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Shamrock Rovers Derry City

Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Double Chance: Shamrock Rovers or Draw (1X)
Secondary Pick Under 3.5 Goals
First Half Result Home Win (HT)
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

Value Bet Detector (+EV)

Matches where our model probability exceeds implied bookmaker odds

1X2 Home Win
Value Edge +21.5%
2.70
Goals Over/Under Over 2.5 Goals
Value Edge +15%
2.50
*EV represents Expected Value. A positive value edge means the bookmaker has priced the selection significantly below its true statistical likelihood.

Attacking Heatmaps & Shot Locations

Dynamic heat overlays computed from tactical zone entries

Shamrock Rovers attacking → ← attacking Derry City

Sokapicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Shamrock Rovers scored in 86% of their last 28 games.

Derry City let in goals in 75% of their last 28 matches.

Games between these two average 1.60 goals.

Shamrock Rovers went unbeaten in 5 of their last 5 games.

Derry City lost 2 of their last 5 games.

Interactive Team Comparison Slider

Side-by-side comparison of team metrics

56 Points in last 5 35
1.38 Goals expected (xG) 1.38
1.00 Goals conceded expected (xGA) 1.25

League Standings

PosTeam P W D L GD Pts
1Shamrock Rovers25155540:2250
2Bohemians25127640:2743
3St. Patricks23125638:1941
4Dundalk2398637:3435
5Shelbourne24810635:3534
6Derry City25611832:3129
7Galway United22661029:3724
8Drogheda23571127:4022
9Waterford23481132:4620
10Sligo Rovers23551318:3720