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Shams Azar Qazvin vs Fajr Sepasi

Iran Iran

Persian Gulf Pro League Sardar Azadegan Stadium
Our Tip

Match Events

46'
Sub
Zare S. In: Moradi M.
Out: Zare S.
51' Event
Bozorg S.
60'
Sub
Shojaeian D. In: Nesaei A.
Out: Shojaeian D.

AI Match Summary

The Persian Gulf Pro League game between Shams Azar Qazvin and Fajr Sepasi finished 0-1, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Fajr Sepasi.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

31%
Shams Azar Qazvin
39%
Draws
30%
Fajr Sepasi
Draw rate projection: 39% Favored: Draw

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

65% / Medium Confidence
  • Fajr Sepasi carry the better recent record into this one.
  • 39% chance of a draw — the model doesn't see a clear favorite.
  • Regular Persian Gulf Pro League form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.
  • These two have met 4 times recently and Fajr Sepasi have taken 3 of them.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 50%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 6.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 3%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 28.400000000000002%
Shams Azar Qazvin Clean Sheet 26%
Fajr Sepasi Clean Sheet 68%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Shams Azar Qazvin Fajr Sepasi
Matches Played 27 28
Wins 4 9
Draws 13 7
Losses 10 12
Goals Scored 0.63 1.13
Goals Conceded 0.5 1.25
Expected Goals (xG) 0.63 1.13
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 0.50 1.25

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Feb 20, 2026 Persian Gulf Pro League
Fajr Sepasi vs Shams Azar Qazvin
1:0
Oct 18, 2025 Persian Gulf Pro League
Shams Azar Qazvin vs Fajr Sepasi
0:1
Feb 25, 2023 Azadegan League
Shams Azar Qazvin vs Fajr Sepasi
3:1
Sep 28, 2022 Azadegan League
Fajr Sepasi vs Shams Azar Qazvin
1:0

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Shams Azar Qazvin Compare

Avg xG / game 0.48
Avg xA / game 0.32

Fajr Sepasi Compare

Top Goalscorer Bozorg S.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.03
Avg xA / game 0.63

Sokapicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Shams Azar Qazvin 33 / 100
Fajr Sepasi 41 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Shams Azar Qazvin Fajr Sepasi

Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick FAJ Win (2)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals & BTTS No
Correct Score 0:1
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

Sokapicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Fajr Sepasi's defensive record shows goals conceded in 71% of 28 matches.

These sides typically produce 1.75 goals when they meet.

Fajr Sepasi's recent record shows 3 losses from the last 5 matches.

Attacking prowess: Shams Azar Qazvin scored in 44% of their last 27 outings.

Scoring Trends

Shams Azar Qazvin VS Fajr Sepasi
0.63 Goals Scored 1.13
0.5 Goals Conceded 1.25
25% Over 1.5 75%
13% Over 2.5 63%
13% Over 3.5 0%

League Standings

PosTeamPWDLGDPts
1Esteghlal TEH22118329:1641
2Tractor22109330:1239
3Sepahan22116524:1339
4Gol Gohar23106724:2436
5Chadormalu2298527:1935
6Persepolis2297623:1934
7Foolad22710521:1631
8Fajr Sepasi2386925:2730
9Kheybar Khorramabad2378822:2429
10Malavan2278713:2129
11Esteghlal Khuzestan2267916:2325
12Paykan2359915:2124
13Shams Azar Qazvin23313715:1922
14Aluminium Arak22571014:2122
15Zob Ahan21310812:1919
16Mes Rafsanjan22361313:2915