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Shimal vs Mingachevir

Azerbaijan Azerbaijan

I Liqa 2025/2026
Our Tip

Match Events

15' Event
Safarov M.
65' Event
Haziyev B.
(Penalty)
82' Event
Kalunga K.

AI Match Summary

The I Liqa 2025/2026 game between Shimal and Mingachevir finished 0-3, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Mingachevir.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

51%
Shimal
20%
Draws
29%
Mingachevir
Draw rate projection: 20% Favored: Shimal

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

20% / Low Confidence
  • Look at the last few games and Mingachevir come out ahead of Shimal on wins alone.
  • Hard to split these two; draw probability sits at 40%.
  • Regular I Liqa 2025/2026 form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).
  • These two have met 3 times recently and Mingachevir have taken 3 of them.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 70%
Over 4.5 Goals 32%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 71.8%
Shimal Clean Sheet 10%
Mingachevir Clean Sheet 11%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Shimal Mingachevir
Matches Played 31 31
Wins 6 15
Draws 6 7
Losses 19 9
Goals Scored 0.9 1.9
Goals Conceded 2.23 1.26
Expected Goals (xG) 1.25 1.88
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Apr 9, 2026 I Liqa
Shimal vs Mingachevir
0:3
Feb 7, 2026 I Liqa
Shimal vs Mingachevir
0:3
Oct 16, 2025 I Liqa
Mingachevir vs Shimal
3:1

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Shimal Compare

Avg xG / game 0.96
Avg xA / game 0.63

Mingachevir Compare

Top Goalscorer Safarov M.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Kalunga K.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.71
Avg xA / game 1.04

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Shimal 30 / 100
Mingachevir 28 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Shimal Mingachevir

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Draw (X)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:2
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

H2H data points to 3.33 goals as a typical output.

Defensive concern: Mingachevir conceded in 71% of 31 recent games.

Shimal went unbeaten in 3 of their last 5 games.

Difficult form: Mingachevir registered 3 defeats in their last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Shimal VS Mingachevir
1 Goals Scored 2.38
1.38 Goals Conceded 1.5
63% Over 1.5 100%
50% Over 2.5 75%
25% Over 3.5 50%

Recent Form & Match History

Shimal

(Home)
17 Sept
Shimal
1 : 4
Sahdag Qusar
11 Sept
MOIK Baku
1 : 1
Shimal
04 Sept
Shimal
1 : 2
Gancabasar
27 May
Shimal
2 : 1
Lokbatan
21 May
Gancabasar
2 : 3
Shimal
Page 1 of 7

Mingachevir

(Away)
17 Sept
Mingachevir
0 : 3
Gancabasar
10 Sept
Sabail
2 : 1
Mingachevir
04 Sept
Mingachevir
2 : 2
Zaqatala PFK
28 May
Gabala
2 : 0
Mingachevir
22 May
Mingachevir
4 : 1
Sabail
Page 1 of 7

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Safa Baku 27 16 9 2 52:21 57
2 Mingachevir 27 15 6 6 55:27 51
3 Sabail 27 14 8 5 46:21 50
4 Baku Sporting 27 13 10 4 40:23 49
5 Sahdag Qusar 27 12 7 8 36:27 43
6 MOIK Baku 27 9 6 12 33:40 33
7 Zaqatala PFK 27 8 4 15 27:44 28
8 Gancabasar 27 7 3 17 40:56 24
9 Shimal 27 5 5 17 23:61 20
10 Difai Agsu 27 4 6 17 28:60 18
Promotion - Premier League (Main)
Promotion - Premier League 2025/2026 (Relegation)
Relegation - I Liqa 2025/2026 (Relegation)