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Shimal vs Mingachevir

Azerbaijan Azerbaijan

I Liqa 2025/2026
Our Tip

Match Events

15' Event
Safarov M.
65' Event
Haziyev B.
(Penalty)
82' Event
Kalunga K.

AI Match Summary

The I Liqa 2025/2026 game between Shimal and Mingachevir finished 0-3, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Mingachevir.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

38%
Shimal
20%
Draws
42%
Mingachevir
Draw rate projection: 20% Favored: Mingachevir

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

42% / Medium Confidence
  • Look at the last few games and Mingachevir come out ahead of Shimal on wins alone.
  • Hard to split these two; draw probability sits at 39%.
  • Regular I Liqa 2025/2026 form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).
  • These two have met 3 times recently and Mingachevir have taken 3 of them.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 19%
Over 4.5 Goals 9%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 32%
Shimal Clean Sheet 11%
Mingachevir Clean Sheet 68%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Shimal Mingachevir
Matches Played 30 31
Wins 6 17
Draws 5 6
Losses 19 8
Goals Scored 0.25 2.38
Goals Conceded 1.25 1.25
Expected Goals (xG) 0.25 2.38
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.25 1.25

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Apr 9, 2026 I Liqa
Shimal vs Mingachevir
0:3
Feb 7, 2026 I Liqa
Shimal vs Mingachevir
0:3
Oct 16, 2025 I Liqa
Mingachevir vs Shimal
3:1

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Shimal Compare

Avg xG / game 0.19
Avg xA / game 0.13

Mingachevir Compare

Top Goalscorer Safarov M.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Kalunga K.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 2.16
Avg xA / game 1.32

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Shimal 30 / 100
Mingachevir 41 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Shimal Mingachevir

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick MIN Win (2)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals & BTTS No
Correct Score 0:3
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

H2H data points to 3.33 goals as a typical output.

Defensive concern: Mingachevir conceded in 71% of 31 recent games.

Shimal went unbeaten in 4 of their last 5 games.

Attacking prowess: Shimal scored in 47% of their last 30 outings.

Scoring Trends

Shimal VS Mingachevir
0.25 Goals Scored 2.38
1.25 Goals Conceded 1.25
38% Over 1.5 88%
25% Over 2.5 63%
13% Over 3.5 25%

Recent Form & Match History

Shimal

(Home)
27 May
Shimal
2 : 1
Lokbatan
21 May
Cebrayil
2 : 3
Shimal
14 May
Shimal
0 : 1
Difai Agsu
06 May
Shimal
1 : 1
MOIK Baku
29 Apr
Safa Baku
0 : 0
Shimal
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Mingachevir

(Away)
28 May
Gabala
2 : 0
Mingachevir
22 May
Mingachevir
4 : 1
Sabail
15 May
Mingachevir
3 : 1
MOIK Baku
05 May
Sahdag Qusar
2 : 0
Mingachevir
29 Apr
Mingachevir
7 : 1
Zaqatala PFK
Page 1 of 7

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Safa Baku 27 16 9 2 52:21 57
2 Mingachevir 27 15 6 6 55:27 51
3 Sabail 27 14 8 5 46:21 50
4 Baku Sporting 27 13 10 4 40:23 49
5 Sahdag Qusar 27 12 7 8 36:27 43
6 MOIK Baku 27 9 6 12 33:40 33
7 Zaqatala PFK 27 8 4 15 27:44 28
8 Cebrayil 27 7 3 17 40:56 24
9 Shimal 27 5 5 17 23:61 20
10 Difai Agsu 27 4 6 17 28:60 18
Promotion - Premier League (Main)
Promotion - Premier League 2025/2026 (Relegation)
Relegation - I Liqa 2025/2026 (Relegation)