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Shimal vs MOIK Baku

Azerbaijan Azerbaijan

I Liqa 2025/2026
Shimal Logo

Shimal

1 - 1
FT
MOIK Baku Logo

MOIK Baku

Our Tip

Match Events

40' Event
Ange Gla D.
85' Event
Faracov S.
Summary Win Prob Goals Form H2H Tactics Players Indices Predictions Timeline Accuracy Compare

AI Match Summary

Neither side could be separated in this I Liqa 2025/2026 matchup, with the score ending 1-1.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

40%
Shimal
20%
Draws
40%
MOIK Baku
Draw rate projection: 20% Favored: Draw

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

40% / Low Confidence
  • MOIK Baku have won more games recently than Shimal.
  • Win probability leans MOIK Baku's way, sitting at 50%.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 31.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 14%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 72.2%
Shimal Clean Sheet 18%
MOIK Baku Clean Sheet 13%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Shimal MOIK Baku
Matches Played 31 30
Wins 6 10
Draws 6 7
Losses 19 13
Goals Scored 0.9 1.23
Goals Conceded 2.23 1.53
Expected Goals (xG) 1.13 1.31
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Sep 11, 2026 I Liqa
MOIK Baku vs Shimal
1:1
May 6, 2026 I Liqa
Shimal vs MOIK Baku
1:1
Dec 10, 2025 I Liqa
MOIK Baku vs Shimal
2:0
Sep 19, 2025 I Liqa
Shimal vs MOIK Baku
1:1
Oct 29, 2024 Azerbaijan Cup
MOIK Baku vs Shimal
3:1

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Shimal Compare

Top Goalscorer Ange Gla D.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 0.87
Avg xA / game 0.56

MOIK Baku Compare

Top Goalscorer Faracov S.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.19
Avg xA / game 0.73

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Shimal 23 / 100
MOIK Baku 48 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Shimal MOIK Baku

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick MOIK Baku Win (2)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 1:2
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Defensive concern: MOIK Baku conceded in 83% of 30 recent games.

Games between these two average 2.40 goals.

Shimal went unbeaten in 3 of their last 5 games.

Attacking prowess: Shimal scored in 52% of their last 31 outings.

Scoring Trends

Shimal VS MOIK Baku
0.63 Goals Scored 1.13
1.5 Goals Conceded 1.63
50% Over 1.5 75%
38% Over 2.5 63%
25% Over 3.5 38%

Recent Form & Match History

Shimal

(Home)
17 Sept
Shimal
1 : 4
Sahdag Qusar
11 Sept
MOIK Baku
1 : 1
Shimal
04 Sept
Shimal
1 : 2
Gancabasar
27 May
Shimal
2 : 1
Lokbatan
21 May
Gancabasar
2 : 3
Shimal
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MOIK Baku

(Away)
18 Sept
FC Khankendi
0 : 2
MOIK Baku
11 Sept
MOIK Baku
1 : 1
Shimal
03 Sept
MOIK Baku
0 : 1
Sahdag Qusar
21 May
MOIK Baku
4 : 0
Difai Agsu
15 May
Mingachevir
3 : 1
MOIK Baku
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League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Safa Baku 27 16 9 2 52:21 57
2 Mingachevir 27 15 6 6 55:27 51
3 Sabail 27 14 8 5 46:21 50
4 Baku Sporting 27 13 10 4 40:23 49
5 Sahdag Qusar 27 12 7 8 36:27 43
6 MOIK Baku 27 9 6 12 33:40 33
7 Zaqatala PFK 27 8 4 15 27:44 28
8 Gancabasar 27 7 3 17 40:56 24
9 Shimal 27 5 5 17 23:61 20
10 Difai Agsu 27 4 6 17 28:60 18
Promotion - Premier League (Main)
Promotion - Premier League 2025/2026 (Relegation)
Relegation - I Liqa 2025/2026 (Relegation)