Sport Picks
Shinnik Yaroslavl vs Arsenal Tula - H2H Analysis, Preview & Predictions
Russia
FNL Stadion Shinnik, Yaroslavl 
Match Events
20'
20'
Azyavin I.
21'
21'
Sub
Antonov A. In: Martovoy D.
Out: Antonov A.
28'
28'
Golubev A.
AI Match Summary
Neither side could be separated in this FNL matchup, with the score ending 2-2.
Win Probability Meter
Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles
30%
35%
35%
Draw rate projection: 35% Favored: Draw
Model Confidence
Aggregate indicator score
30%
/ Low Confidence
- Form's been kind to Shinnik Yaroslavl lately — more wins on the board than Arsenal Tula.
- Win probability leans Shinnik Yaroslavl's way, sitting at 40%.
- Regular FNL form gives a decent read on both sides.
- Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.
Goal Probability Engine
Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories
Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 69%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 22%
Over 4.5 Goals 10%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 34.400000000000006%
Shinnik Yaroslavl Clean Sheet 68%
Arsenal Tula Clean Sheet 10%
Recent Team Form Analysis
Averages per match over historical game filters
| Metric | Shinnik Yaroslavl | Arsenal Tula |
|---|---|---|
| Matches Played | 28 | 30 |
| Wins | 10 | 6 |
| Draws | 15 | 11 |
| Losses | 3 | 13 |
| Goals Scored | 1.25 | 1.1 |
| Goals Conceded | 0.82 | 1.7 |
| Expected Goals (xG) | 1.38 | 0.88 |
| Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) | 1.10 | 1.40 |
H2H
Historical prediction success rates across key markets
Aug 8, 2026 FNL
Shinnik Yaroslavl vs Arsenal Tula
2:2
Apr 18, 2026 FNL
Shinnik Yaroslavl vs Arsenal Tula
2:0
Jul 25, 2025 FNL
Arsenal Tula vs Shinnik Yaroslavl
1:1
Apr 20, 2025 FNL
Shinnik Yaroslavl vs Arsenal Tula
2:1
Oct 26, 2024 FNL
Arsenal Tula vs Shinnik Yaroslavl
1:1
Key Player Impact Analysis
Key performers and expected goal involvement factors
Shinnik Yaroslavl Compare
Top Goalscorer Azyavin I.
1 Goals Avg xG / game 1.06
Avg xA / game 0.69
Arsenal Tula Compare
Top Goalscorer Gorbunov I.
1 Goals Assists Leader Glushkov N.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 0.8
Avg xA / game 0.49
SokaPicks Momentum Index
Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)
Shinnik Yaroslavl 50 / 100
Arsenal Tula 26 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).
Attack & Defence Capability Index
Shinnik Yaroslavl Arsenal Tula
AI Prediction Engine Forecast
Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets
Primary Pick Shinnik Yaroslavl Win (1)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 1:0
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5
SokaPicks Smart Insights
Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system
Arsenal Tula has conceded goals in 87% of their last 30 outings.
Shinnik Yaroslavl found the back of the net in 79% of recent matches (28 games).
These sides typically produce 2.60 goals when they meet.
Shinnik Yaroslavl went unbeaten in 4 of their last 5 games.
Scoring Trends
Shinnik Yaroslavl VS Arsenal Tula
1 Goals Scored 1.13
0.63 Goals Conceded 1.75
50% Over 1.5 88%
25% Over 2.5 63%
25% Over 3.5 38%
Recent Form & Match History
Shinnik Yaroslavl
(Home) 27 Sept
Shinnik Yaroslavl
0 : 0 SKA Khabarovsk
18 Sept
Shinnik Yaroslavl
0 : 1 Kamaz
14 Sept
Shinnik Yaroslavl
1 : 1 Ural
10 Sept
Shinnik Yaroslavl
2 : 0 Torpedo Moscow
05 Sept
Shinnik Yaroslavl
2 : 2 R. Volgograd
Page 1 of 6
27 Sept
Shinnik Yaroslavl
0 : 0 SKA Khabarovsk
18 Sept
Shinnik Yaroslavl
0 : 1 Kamaz
14 Sept
Shinnik Yaroslavl
1 : 1 Ural
10 Sept
Shinnik Yaroslavl
2 : 0 Torpedo Moscow
05 Sept
Shinnik Yaroslavl
2 : 2 R. Volgograd
Page 1 of 3
Arsenal Tula
(Away) 09 Oct
Arsenal Tula
3 : 2 S. Kostroma
04 Oct
CSKA Moscow
3 : 1 Arsenal Tula
26 Sept
Lokomotiv Moscow
0 : 2 Arsenal Tula
16 Sept
Yenisey
3 : 1 Arsenal Tula
13 Sept
Arsenal Tula
2 : 2 SKA Khabarovsk
Page 1 of 6
04 Oct
CSKA Moscow
3 : 1 Arsenal Tula
26 Sept
Lokomotiv Moscow
0 : 2 Arsenal Tula
16 Sept
Yenisey
3 : 1 Arsenal Tula
08 Sept
Tekstilshtik
1 : 0 Arsenal Tula
05 Sept
Ulyanovsk
3 : 0 Arsenal Tula
Page 1 of 4
League Standings
| Pos | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Pari Nizhny Novgorod | 12 | 10 | 1 | 1 | 36:14 | 31 |
| 2 | Ural | 12 | 7 | 4 | 1 | 20:6 | 25 |
| 3 | S. Kostroma | 13 | 7 | 3 | 3 | 18:13 | 24 |
| 4 | PFC Sochi | 12 | 7 | 2 | 3 | 21:14 | 23 |
| 5 | Veles Moscow | 13 | 7 | 2 | 4 | 17:16 | 23 |
| 6 | Torpedo Moscow | 12 | 6 | 3 | 3 | 21:9 | 21 |
| 7 | Ufa | 12 | 4 | 6 | 2 | 16:13 | 18 |
| 8 | R. Volgograd | 12 | 5 | 2 | 5 | 20:14 | 17 |
| 9 | Arsenal Tula | 13 | 4 | 4 | 5 | 15:24 | 16 |
| 10 | Shinnik Yaroslavl | 12 | 3 | 7 | 2 | 15:13 | 16 |
| 11 | Chelyabinsk | 13 | 4 | 3 | 6 | 17:21 | 15 |
| 12 | Yenisey | 12 | 3 | 5 | 4 | 15:20 | 14 |
| 13 | Ulyanovsk | 13 | 4 | 2 | 7 | 16:19 | 14 |
| 14 | Leningradets | 12 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 10:20 | 13 |
| 15 | Neftekhimik | 13 | 4 | 0 | 9 | 9:19 | 12 |
| 16 | Kamaz | 12 | 2 | 3 | 7 | 11:19 | 9 |
| 17 | Tekstilshtik | 12 | 1 | 4 | 7 | 8:19 | 7 |
| 18 | SKA Khabarovsk | 12 | 1 | 3 | 8 | 11:23 | 6 |
Promotion - Premier League 2027/2028 (Main)
Promotion - Premier League (Relegation)
