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Shinnik Yaroslavl vs S. Kostroma - H2H Analysis, Preview & Predictions

Russia Russia

FNL Stadion Shinnik, Yaroslavl
Mon, Oct 26, 2026
VS
04:30 PM
Our Tip

AI Match Summary

Shinnik Yaroslavl host S. Kostroma in the FNL. Don't expect fireworks — both sides lean defensive. Shinnik Yaroslavl have averaged 1.24 scored and 0.9 conceded recently, against S. Kostroma's 1.24 scored and 1 conceded. Past meetings favor Shinnik Yaroslavl slightly — 2-0-2 in wins/losses/draws. They last met on Mar 22, 2026, ending 1:1. The numbers (0.76 xG vs 1.13) point toward Shinnik Yaroslavl. The model tips Under 2.5 goals in this one.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

29%
Shinnik Yaroslavl
20%
Draws
51%
S. Kostroma
Draw rate projection: 20% Favored: S. Kostroma

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

51% / Medium Confidence
  • S. Kostroma carry the better recent record into this one.
  • Model puts this one close, with a 39% draw probability.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 50.5%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 19%
Over 4.5 Goals 9%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 30.8%
Shinnik Yaroslavl Clean Sheet 21%
S. Kostroma Clean Sheet 68%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Shinnik Yaroslavl S. Kostroma
Matches Played 29 29
Wins 10 13
Draws 16 8
Losses 3 8
Goals Scored 1.24 1.24
Goals Conceded 0.9 1
Expected Goals (xG) 0.76 1.13
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Mar 22, 2026 FNL
S. Kostroma vs Shinnik Yaroslavl
1:1
Oct 25, 2025 FNL
Shinnik Yaroslavl vs S. Kostroma
2:2
Jul 4, 2017 Club Friendly
S. Kostroma vs Shinnik Yaroslavl
0:2
Jun 29, 2016 Club Friendly
Shinnik Yaroslavl vs S. Kostroma
1:0

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Shinnik Yaroslavl 32 / 100
S. Kostroma 41 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Shinnik Yaroslavl S. Kostroma

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick S. Kostroma Win (2)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 0:1
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Attacking prowess: Shinnik Yaroslavl scored in 76% of their last 29 outings.

S. Kostroma let in goals in 66% of their last 29 matches.

Historical meetings average 2.25 goals per match.

Solid form: Shinnik Yaroslavl remains unbeaten in 3 of 5 recent matches.

Scoring Trends

Shinnik Yaroslavl VS S. Kostroma
0.88 Goals Scored 1.25
1 Goals Conceded 0.63
63% Over 1.5 38%
25% Over 2.5 25%
25% Over 3.5 13%

Recent Form & Match History

Shinnik Yaroslavl

(Home)
18 Oct
Veles Moscow
1 : 1
Shinnik Yaroslavl
14 Oct
Pari Nizhny Novgorod
4 : 0
Shinnik Yaroslavl
10 Oct
Shinnik Yaroslavl
2 : 0
Tekstilshtik
27 Sept
Shinnik Yaroslavl
0 : 0
SKA Khabarovsk
18 Sept
Shinnik Yaroslavl
0 : 1
Kamaz
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S. Kostroma

(Away)
17 Oct
S. Kostroma
2 : 0
Leningradets
13 Oct
S. Kostroma
1 : 0
Chelyabinsk
09 Oct
Arsenal Tula
3 : 2
S. Kostroma
26 Sept
S. Kostroma
1 : 2
Ural
18 Sept
Ulyanovsk
0 : 1
S. Kostroma
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League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Pari Nizhny Novgorod 14 12 1 1 43:15 37
2 PFC Sochi 14 9 2 3 23:14 29
3 Torpedo Moscow 14 8 3 3 26:11 27
4 Veles Moscow 15 8 3 4 20:18 27
5 S. Kostroma 14 8 3 3 20:13 27
6 Ural 14 7 4 3 22:10 25
7 Ufa 14 5 6 3 18:14 21
8 Shinnik Yaroslavl 14 4 8 2 18:14 20
9 R. Volgograd 14 5 3 6 22:17 18
10 Ulyanovsk 15 5 3 7 20:22 18
11 Arsenal Tula 14 4 4 6 15:26 16
12 Chelyabinsk 14 4 3 7 18:23 15
13 Yenisey 14 3 5 6 16:27 14
14 Kamaz 14 3 4 7 16:23 13
15 Leningradets 14 3 4 7 11:25 13
16 Neftekhimik 14 4 0 10 10:21 12
17 Tekstilshtik 14 2 4 8 10:22 10
18 SKA Khabarovsk 14 1 4 9 15:28 7
Promotion - Premier League 2027/2028 (Main)
Promotion - Premier League (Relegation)