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Shire Endaselassie vs Arba Menche

Ethiopia Ethiopia

Premier League
Our Tip

Match Events

5' Event
Waleche S.

AI Match Summary

The Premier League game between Shire Endaselassie and Arba Menche finished 1-0, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Shire Endaselassie.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

50%
Shire Endaselassie
28%
Draws
22%
Arba Menche
Draw rate projection: 28% Favored: Shire Endaselassie

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

76% / High Confidence
  • Arba Menche carry the better recent record into this one.
  • Win probability leans Shire Endaselassie's way, sitting at 50%.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 62.5%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 13%
Over 4.5 Goals 6%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 24.4%
Shire Endaselassie Clean Sheet 68%
Arba Menche Clean Sheet 18%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Shire Endaselassie Arba Menche
Matches Played 30 30
Wins 6 7
Draws 12 10
Losses 12 13
Goals Scored 0.5 1
Goals Conceded 1.13 1.13
Expected Goals (xG) 0.50 1.00
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.13 1.13

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Jun 15, 2026 Premier League
Arba Menche vs Shire Endaselassie
2:0
Jan 21, 2026 Premier League
Shire Endaselassie vs Arba Menche
1:0
Apr 20, 2025 Premier League
Arba Menche vs Shire Endaselassie
0:0
Jan 18, 2025 Premier League
Shire Endaselassie vs Arba Menche
0:1

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Shire Endaselassie Compare

Top Goalscorer Waleche S.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 0.38
Avg xA / game 0.25

Arba Menche Compare

Avg xG / game 0.91
Avg xA / game 0.56

Sokapicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Shire Endaselassie 59 / 100
Arba Menche 23 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Shire Endaselassie Arba Menche

Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick SHI Win (1)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals & BTTS No
Correct Score 1:0
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

Sokapicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Arba Menche's defensive record shows goals conceded in 67% of 30 matches.

Recent resilience: Shire Endaselassie stayed unbeaten in 3 of the last 5 games.

Arba Menche's recent record shows 3 losses from the last 5 matches.

Shire Endaselassie's goal record stands at 40% scoring rate across 30 recent games.

Scoring Trends

Shire Endaselassie VS Arba Menche
0.5 Goals Scored 1
1.13 Goals Conceded 1.13
50% Over 1.5 75%
13% Over 2.5 38%
13% Over 3.5 13%

League Standings

PosTeamPWDLGDPts
1Sidama Bunna381911843:2368
2Negele Arsi Ketema FC381515837:3060
3Mechal SC381415944:3157
4Fasil Kenema3814131128:2855
5Ethio Electric S.C.3813151032:2654
6St. Georges3814121233:3154
7Welayta Dicha381118937:3151
8Ethiopia Bunna (Ethiopian Coffee)3813121340:3951
9Hawassa3812141237:3250
10Sheger Ketema FC3811171034:3150
11Bahir Dar Kenema38921828:2848
12Hadiya Hossana3811151231:3548
13Ethiopia Nigd Bank3811141345:4547
14Ethiopian Insurance3810161230:3146
15Adama City3810161235:3946
16Welwalo Adigrat3810161232:3646
17Shire Endaselassie389151424:3242
18Dire Dawa389151427:4142
19Mekelle 70 Enderta FC388161426:3840
20Arba Menche387141730:4635