Sport Picks

Stadium Background

Shkupi vs Vardar

North Macedonia North Macedonia

1. MFL 2025/2026
Our Tip

Match Events

10' Event
Zakaric G.
18'
Puleio I.
44' Event
Babunski D.

AI Match Summary

Vardar in this 1. MFL 2025/2026 matchup, with the score ending 0-7 — backing the pre-match view that favored Vardar.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

0%
Shkupi
15%
Draws
85%
Vardar
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: Vardar

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

85% / Very High Confidence
  • Form's been kind to Vardar lately — more wins on the board than Shkupi.
  • Model gives Vardar a 85% chance of winning this.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).
  • History favors Vardar here — 5 wins from the last 5 head-to-heads.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 96%
Over 1.5 Goals 85.5%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 54%
Over 4.5 Goals 24%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 67.4%
Shkupi Clean Sheet 10%
Vardar Clean Sheet 20%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Shkupi Vardar
Matches Played 29 30
Wins 0 18
Draws 2 4
Losses 27 8
Goals Scored 0.48 2.13
Goals Conceded 4.07 1
Expected Goals (xG) 0.46 3.60
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Apr 18, 2026 1. MFL
Shkupi vs Vardar
0:7
Nov 30, 2025 1. MFL
Vardar vs Shkupi
6:1
Aug 29, 2025 1. MFL
Shkupi vs Vardar
2:4
May 3, 2025 1. MFL
Shkupi vs Vardar
0:2
Nov 9, 2024 1. MFL
Vardar vs Shkupi
3:2

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Shkupi Compare

Avg xG / game 0.35
Avg xA / game 0.23

Vardar Compare

Top Goalscorer Zakaric G.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Babunski D.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 3.27
Avg xA / game 2

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Shkupi 10 / 100
Vardar 85 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Shkupi Vardar

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Vardar Win (2)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 1:2
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

H2H data points to 5.40 goals as a typical output.

Vardar lost 3 of their last 5 games.

Attacking prowess: Shkupi scored in 38% of their last 29 outings.

Defensive concern: Vardar conceded in 57% of 30 recent games.

Scoring Trends

Shkupi VS Vardar
0.17 Goals Scored 2.38
4.83 Goals Conceded 0.75
83% Over 1.5 88%
83% Over 2.5 50%
83% Over 3.5 25%

Recent Form & Match History

Shkupi

(Home)
24 May
Brera Strumica
6 : 0
Shkupi
16 May
Shkupi
0 : 7
Rabotnicki
09 May
Pelister
7 : 0
Shkupi
01 May
Shkupi
0 : 4
Makedonija GP
24 Apr
Arsimi
5 : 1
Shkupi
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Vardar

(Away)
09 Aug
Vardar
0 : 2
Shkendija Tetovo
28 Jul
Riga FC
5 : 2
Vardar
25 Jul
Vardar
2 : 0
Bregalnica Stip
22 Jul
Vardar
2 : 3
Riga FC
14 Jul
KuPS
2 : 3
Vardar
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Vardar 33 26 5 2 80:21 83
2 Shkendija Tetovo 33 23 5 5 67:30 74
3 Struga 33 19 5 9 68:28 62
4 Sileks 33 16 5 12 59:36 53
5 Tikves 33 14 6 13 59:47 48
6 Arsimi 33 13 7 13 50:53 46
7 Bashkimi 33 11 9 13 40:54 42
8 Pelister 33 10 10 13 41:42 40
9 Brera Strumica 33 10 10 13 46:56 40
10 Makedonija GP 33 9 7 17 42:57 34
11 Rabotnicki 33 9 6 18 45:58 33
12 Shkupi 33 0 1 32 15:130 1
Promotion - Conference League (Qualification)
Promotion - Champions League (Qualification)
Promotion - Conference League (Qualification)
Relegation - 1. MFL 2025/2026 (Relegation)
Relegation - 2. MFL (Main)