Sport Picks

Japan

J2/J3 League Lemon Gas Stadium

Shonan Bellmare

2 - 1

Montedio Yamagata

Our Tip

Match Events

10'

Takeda S.

19'

Shibuya T.

Own Goal

29'

Terayama T.

Assist: Okamoto K.

Summary Win Prob Goals Form H2H Tactics Players Indices Predictions Timeline Accuracy Compare

AI Match Summary

The J2/J3 League game between Shonan Bellmare and Montedio Yamagata finished 2-1, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Shonan Bellmare.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

42%

Shonan Bellmare

20%

Draws

38%

Montedio Yamagata

Draw rate projection: 20% Favored: Shonan Bellmare

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

67% / Medium Confidence

Montedio Yamagata's 1.25 goals per match outpaces what Shonan Bellmare have produced (1).
Shonan Bellmare are the model's pick here, at 42%.
This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.
Montedio Yamagata have won 4 of the last 5 meetings between these two.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%

Over 1.5 Goals 82%

Over 2.5 Goals 38%

Over 3.5 Goals 22%

Over 4.5 Goals 10%

Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 75.4%

Shonan Bellmare Clean Sheet 17%

Montedio Yamagata Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric	Shonan Bellmare	Montedio Yamagata
Matches Played	29	30
Wins	14	14
Draws	2	3
Losses	13	13
Goals Scored	1	1.25
Goals Conceded	1.5	1.75
Expected Goals (xG)	1.00	1.25
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA)	1.50	1.75

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

May 24, 2026 J2/J3 League

Montedio Yamagata vs Shonan Bellmare

Possession: 47% - 48% Cards: 2 - 1

3:1

Mar 14, 2026 J2/J3 League

Shonan Bellmare vs Montedio Yamagata

Possession: 54% - 58% Cards: 1 - 2

2:1

Jul 22, 2017 J2 League

Montedio Yamagata vs Shonan Bellmare

Possession: 52% - 44% Cards: 2 - 4

3:0

May 27, 2017 J2 League

Shonan Bellmare vs Montedio Yamagata

Possession: 58% - 48% Cards: 3 - 4

0:1

Oct 3, 2015 J1 League

Shonan Bellmare vs Montedio Yamagata

Possession: 40% - 51% Cards: 2 - 0

0:1

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Shonan Bellmare Compare

Top Goalscorer Tamura S.

1 Goals

Avg xG / game 0.77

Avg xA / game 0.5

Montedio Yamagata Compare

Top Goalscorer Terayama T.

1 Goals

Avg xG / game 1.14

Avg xA / game 0.69

Sokapicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Shonan Bellmare 41 / 100

Montedio Yamagata 36 / 100

How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

Shonan Bellmare Montedio Yamagata

Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Draw (X)

Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals & BTTS Yes

Correct Score 1:1

BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)

Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

Sokapicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Montedio Yamagata let in goals in 87% of their last 30 matches.

Shonan Bellmare scored in 79% of their last 29 games.

Historical meetings average 2.40 goals per match.

Difficult form: Montedio Yamagata registered 4 defeats in their last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Shonan Bellmare VS Montedio Yamagata

1 Goals Scored 1.25

1.5 Goals Conceded 1.75

75% Over 1.5 75%

63% Over 2.5 63%

13% Over 3.5 38%

League Standings

Pos	Team	P	W	L	GD	Pts
1	Vegalta Sendai	18	16	2	37:15	43
2	Blaublitz	18	11	7	23:16	35
3	Shonan Bellmare	18	11	7	28:20	31
4	Yokohama FC	18	10	8	36:28	29
5	SC Sagamihara	18	9	9	33:36	28
6	Thespakusatsu Gunma	18	7	11	27:39	23
7	Montedio Yamagata	18	8	10	22:25	22
8	Tochigi City	18	7	11	22:35	21
9	Vanraure	17	5	12	16:23	18
10	Tochigi SC	17	5	12	24:31	17

Pos	Team	P	W	L	GD	Pts
1	Kofu	17	11	6	20:12	33
2	Hokkaido Consadole Sapporo	18	11	7	28:22	31
3	Iwaki	18	11	7	26:20	31
4	Omiya Ardija	18	10	8	39:29	30
5	Fujieda MYFC	18	9	9	24:23	30
6	Gifu	17	9	8	23:25	27
7	Matsumoto Yamaga	18	8	10	33:25	26
8	Iwata	18	9	9	20:25	25
9	Fukushima United	18	6	12	30:43	18
10	Nagano Parceiro	18	5	13	17:36	16

Pos	Team	P	W	L	GD	Pts
1	Toyama	18	13	5	40:26	38
2	Albirex Niigata	18	12	6	24:19	35
3	Tokushima	18	11	7	38:23	32
4	Kochi United	18	10	8	25:23	30
5	Ehime	18	9	9	26:20	28
6	Kanazawa	18	10	8	20:23	27
7	Nara Club	18	7	11	27:36	21
8	FC Osaka	18	6	12	18:23	20
9	Imabari	18	6	12	15:21	20
10	Kamatamare Sanuki	18	6	12	15:34	19

Pos	Team	P	W	L	GD	Pts
1	Tegevajaro Miyazaki	18	15	3	35:13	47
2	Kagoshima United	18	12	6	27:16	33
3	Sagan Tosu	18	10	8	26:18	32
4	Renofa Yamaguchi	18	10	8	27:24	29
5	Kumamoto	18	9	9	21:21	27
6	Gainare Tottori	18	10	8	24:25	27
7	Oita Trinita	18	7	11	19:20	22
8	Reilac Shiga	18	7	11	16:29	21
9	Ryukyu	18	6	12	17:28	17
10	Giravanz Kitakyushu	18	4	14	17:35	15