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Shumen 2007 vs Ustrem Donchevo

Bulgaria Bulgaria

Third League - North-East 2023/2024
Sat, Sep 23, 2023
VS
02:00 PM
Our Tip

AI Match Summary

Shumen 2007 host Ustrem Donchevo in the Third League - North-East 2023/2024. Recent form is the clearest guide to this one. Recent numbers: Shumen 2007 at 0.8 goals for, 2.87 against; Ustrem Donchevo at 2.08 for, 2.14 against. Past meetings favor Ustrem Donchevo slightly — 1-2-2 in wins/losses/draws. They last met on Sep 23, 2023, ending 0:0. xG projections (1.60 - 1.36) back Ustrem Donchevo to edge this. AI prediction: Home (1) Win — correct score tipped at 2-1.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

85%
Shumen 2007
15%
Draws
0%
Ustrem Donchevo
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: Shumen 2007

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

85% / Very High Confidence
  • Form's been kind to Ustrem Donchevo lately — more wins on the board than Shumen 2007.
  • 85% — that's where the model lands on Shumen 2007 taking it.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 31.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 14%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 76.2%
Shumen 2007 Clean Sheet 18%
Ustrem Donchevo Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Shumen 2007 Ustrem Donchevo
Matches Played 15 36
Wins 3 16
Draws 1 5
Losses 11 15
Goals Scored 0.8 2.08
Goals Conceded 2.87 2.14
Expected Goals (xG) 1.60 1.36
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Sep 23, 2023 Third League - North-East
Shumen 2007 vs Ustrem Donchevo
0:0
Apr 30, 2023 Third League - North-East
Ustrem Donchevo vs Shumen 2007
4:1
Oct 23, 2022 Third League - North-East
Shumen 2007 vs Ustrem Donchevo
4:0
May 28, 2022 Third League - North-East
Shumen 2007 vs Ustrem Donchevo
2:4
Dec 5, 2021 Third League - North-East
Ustrem Donchevo vs Shumen 2007
0:0

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Shumen 2007 85 / 100
Ustrem Donchevo 10 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Shumen 2007 Ustrem Donchevo

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Shumen 2007 Win (1)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Ustrem Donchevo has conceded goals in 86% of their last 36 outings.

Away concern: Ustrem Donchevo has suffered 5 losses in 5 recent matches.

Games between these two average 3.00 goals.

Shumen 2007 went unbeaten in 3 of their last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

- VS Ustrem Donchevo
0 Goals Scored 1.63
0 Goals Conceded 2
0% Over 1.5 88%
0% Over 2.5 75%
0% Over 3.5 63%

Recent Form & Match History

Shumen 2007

(Home)
03 Jun
Chernolomets
8 : 0
Shumen 2007
21 May
Shumen 2007
3 : 2
Botev Novi Pazar
14 May
Dunav Ruse II
0 : 1
Shumen 2007
06 May
Shumen 2007
0 : 0
Dorostol
30 Apr
Ustrem Donchevo
4 : 1
Shumen 2007
Page 1 of 3

Ustrem Donchevo

(Away)
12 Sept
Ustrem Donchevo
2 : 4
Volov Shumen
05 Sept
FK Riltzi
4 : 1
Ustrem Donchevo
29 Aug
Ustrem Donchevo
2 : 3
Svetkavitsa 2014
26 Aug
Botev Novi Pazar
5 : 1
Ustrem Donchevo
22 Aug
Ustrem Donchevo
3 : 4
Olympic Varna
Page 1 of 8

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Ludogorets III 26 19 4 3 69:16 61
2 Fratria 26 19 4 3 71:20 61
3 Septemvri Tervel 26 18 4 4 52:19 58
4 Cherno More II 26 16 8 2 49:17 56
5 Chernolomets 26 17 2 7 54:31 53
6 Spartak Varna II 26 16 2 8 66:27 50
7 Benkovski 26 11 2 13 48:45 35
8 Dorostol 26 10 4 12 36:50 34
9 FK Riltzi 26 9 6 11 40:45 33
10 Ustrem Donchevo 26 7 4 15 36:58 25
11 Svetkavitsa 26 4 7 15 26:54 19
12 Dunav Ruse II 26 4 4 18 26:64 16
13 Lokomotiv Ruse 26 2 5 19 22:73 11
14 Kubrat 26 2 0 24 10:86 6
15 Shumen 2007 0 0 0 0 0:0 0
16 Sportist Toshevo 0 0 0 0 0:0 0
Promotion - Vtora liga 2024/2025 (Main)