Sport Picks

Poland

III Liga - Group IV 2025/2026

Match Events

50'

Tomczyk P.

60'

Okoniewski K.

Summary Win Prob Goals Form H2H Tactics Players Indices Predictions Timeline Accuracy Compare

AI Match Summary

Siarka Tarnobrzeg host Chelmianka Chelm in the III Liga - Group IV 2025/2026. Neither defense has been convincing lately, which should mean goals. Siarka Tarnobrzeg have averaged 1.25 scored and 1.88 conceded recently, against Chelmianka Chelm's 2.25 scored and 1.13 conceded. Past meetings favor Chelmianka Chelm slightly — 2-3-0 in wins/losses/draws. They last met on Mar 21, 2026, ending 0:2. Model xG sits at 1.19 vs 2.06, favoring Chelmianka Chelm. Over markets look the better angle than the result itself.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

27%

Siarka Tarnobrzeg

33%

Draws

40%

Chelmianka Chelm

Draw rate projection: 33% Favored: Chelmianka Chelm

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

70% / Medium Confidence

Chelmianka Chelm has accumulated more wins in recent fixtures compared to Siarka Tarnobrzeg.
Model forecasts a 40% win probability edge for Chelmianka Chelm.
League standings and seasonal metrics in III Liga - Group IV 2025/2026 provide steady trend data.
High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%

Over 1.5 Goals 82%

Over 2.5 Goals 78%

Over 3.5 Goals 31.5%

Over 4.5 Goals 14%

Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 78%

Siarka Tarnobrzeg Clean Sheet 10%

Chelmianka Chelm Clean Sheet 12%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric	Siarka Tarnobrzeg	Chelmianka Chelm
Matches Played	28	27
Wins	9	15
Draws	9	7
Losses	10	5
Goals Scored	1.25	2.25
Goals Conceded	1.88	1.13
Expected Goals (xG)	1.25	2.25
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA)	1.88	1.13

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Mar 21, 2026 III Liga - Group IV

Siarka Tarnobrzeg vs Chelmianka Chelm

Possession: 60% - 52% Cards: 2 - 2

0:2

Aug 31, 2025 III Liga - Group IV

Chelmianka Chelm vs Siarka Tarnobrzeg

Possession: 41% - 47% Cards: 1 - 2

2:0

Apr 19, 2025 III Liga - Group IV

Chelmianka Chelm vs Siarka Tarnobrzeg

Possession: 57% - 54% Cards: 4 - 0

5:4

Sep 21, 2024 III Liga - Group IV

Siarka Tarnobrzeg vs Chelmianka Chelm

Possession: 49% - 49% Cards: 2 - 0

2:1

Apr 6, 2024 III Liga - Group IV

Siarka Tarnobrzeg vs Chelmianka Chelm

Possession: 49% - 41% Cards: 1 - 1

5:3

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Siarka Tarnobrzeg Compare

Avg xG / game 0.96

Avg xA / game 0.63

Chelmianka Chelm Compare

Top Goalscorer Tomczyk P.

1 Goals

Assists Leader Okoniewski K.

1 Ast

Avg xG / game 2.05

Avg xA / game 1.25

Sokapicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Siarka Tarnobrzeg 26 / 100

Chelmianka Chelm 38 / 100

How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

Siarka Tarnobrzeg Chelmianka Chelm

Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick CHE Win (2)

Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals & BTTS Yes

Correct Score 1:2

BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)

Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

Sokapicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Siarka Tarnobrzeg scored in 79% of their last 28 games.

Chelmianka Chelm let in goals in 67% of their last 27 matches.

Games between these two average 4.80 goals.

Siarka Tarnobrzeg went unbeaten in 2 of their last 5 games.

Chelmianka Chelm lost 1 of their last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Siarka Tarnobrzeg VS Chelmianka Chelm

1.25 Goals Scored 2.25

1.88 Goals Conceded 1.13

63% Over 1.5 75%

50% Over 2.5 63%

25% Over 3.5 38%

League Standings

Pos	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Avia Swidnik	34	23	8	3	84:35	77
2	Ostrowiec Swietokrzyski	34	22	8	4	66:30	74
3	Chelmianka Chelm	34	21	9	4	65:31	72
4	Korona Kielce II	34	18	4	12	66:59	58
5	Star Starachowice	34	15	10	9	51:43	55
6	Czarni Polaniec	34	16	5	13	59:49	53
7	Biala Podlaska	34	14	10	10	60:48	52
8	Pogon-Sokol Lubaczow	34	14	9	11	61:45	51
9	Wislanie Skawina	34	15	6	13	52:51	51
10	Wisla II	34	15	4	15	67:58	49
11	Wisloka Debica	34	12	12	10	37:35	48
12	Siarka Tarnobrzeg	34	11	10	13	59:52	43
13	Naprzod Jedrzejow	34	11	5	18	45:55	38
14	Kolbuszowa Dolna	34	11	4	19	36:54	37
15	Stal Krasnik	34	9	7	18	42:52	34
16	Cracovia II	34	9	6	19	44:71	33
17	Swidniczanka Swidnik	34	5	4	25	35:80	19
18	Sparta Kazimierza Wielka	34	4	1	29	29:110	13