Sport Picks

Italy

Serie D - Group E

Siena

1 - 0

Follonica Gavorrano

Our Tip

Match Events

43'

Mastalli A.

(Penalty)

Summary Win Prob Goals Form H2H Tactics Players Indices Predictions Timeline Accuracy Compare

AI Match Summary

Siena in this Serie D - Group E matchup, with the score ending 1-0 — backing the pre-match view that favored Siena.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

40%

Siena

33%

Draws

27%

Follonica Gavorrano

Draw rate projection: 33% Favored: Siena

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

70% / Medium Confidence

Form's been kind to Siena lately — more wins on the board than Follonica Gavorrano.
Win probability leans Siena's way, sitting at 40%.
Regular Serie D - Group E form gives a decent read on both sides.
Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.
Siena have won 5 of the last 5 meetings between these two.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 85%

Over 1.5 Goals 75.5%

Over 2.5 Goals 25%

Over 3.5 Goals 22%

Over 4.5 Goals 10%

Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 32.400000000000006%

Siena Clean Sheet 68%

Follonica Gavorrano Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric	Siena	Follonica Gavorrano
Matches Played	30	30
Wins	13	8
Draws	8	9
Losses	9	13
Goals Scored	2.88	0.88
Goals Conceded	1.5	0.88
Expected Goals (xG)	2.88	0.88
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA)	1.50	0.88

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Feb 8, 2026 Serie D - Group E

Siena vs Follonica Gavorrano

Possession: 42% - 41% Cards: 3 - 4

1:0

Oct 5, 2025 Serie D - Group E

Follonica Gavorrano vs Siena

Possession: 43% - 51% Cards: 4 - 3

0:1

Apr 12, 2025 Serie D - Group E

Siena vs Follonica Gavorrano

Possession: 43% - 49% Cards: 2 - 4

3:1

Dec 1, 2024 Serie D - Group E

Follonica Gavorrano vs Siena

Possession: 46% - 49% Cards: 0 - 2

0:1

Apr 14, 2021 Serie D - Group E

Follonica Gavorrano vs Siena

Possession: 55% - 43% Cards: 3 - 3

0:1

Sokapicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Siena 50 / 100

Follonica Gavorrano 26 / 100

How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

Siena Follonica Gavorrano

Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick SIE Win (1)

Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals & BTTS No

Correct Score 1:0

BTTS Outcome No (NG)

Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

Sokapicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Follonica Gavorrano let in goals in 83% of their last 30 matches.

Siena's goal record stands at 67% scoring rate across 30 recent games.

These sides typically produce 1.60 goals when they meet.

Siena has registered 4 games unbeaten in their last 5 outings.

Scoring Trends

Siena VS Follonica Gavorrano

2.88 Goals Scored 0.88

1.5 Goals Conceded 0.88

88% Over 1.5 63%

75% Over 2.5 13%

75% Over 3.5 13%

League Standings

Pos	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Grosseto	34	22	6	6	58:25	72
2	Tau	34	18	9	7	53:33	63
3	Prato	34	20	5	9	49:29	63
4	Siena	34	17	9	8	57:35	60
5	Seravezza Pozzi	34	15	12	7	42:29	57
6	Terranuova Traiana	34	14	9	11	28:30	51
7	Foligno	34	14	9	11	45:37	51
8	Scandicci	34	11	15	8	39:32	48
9	Montevarchi	34	10	16	8	28:32	46
10	Sporting Trestina	34	10	12	12	40:42	42
11	San Donato Tavarnelle	34	9	13	12	30:35	40
12	Ghiviborgo	34	10	10	14	42:44	40
13	Orvietana	34	9	11	14	33:37	38
14	Follonica Gavorrano	34	9	10	15	36:49	37
15	Camaiore Calcio	34	9	8	17	41:54	35
16	Poggibonsi	34	7	10	17	29:46	31
17	Cannara	34	6	8	20	24:59	26
18	Vivi Altotevere Sansepolcro	34	2	16	16	20:46	22