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Siena vs Montevarchi

Italy Italy

Serie D - Group E 2025/2026
Our Tip

AI Match Summary

The Serie D - Group E 2025/2026 game between Siena and Montevarchi finished 0-0.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

43%
Siena
30%
Draws
27%
Montevarchi
Draw rate projection: 30% Favored: Siena

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

43% / Low Confidence
  • Siena carry the better recent record into this one.
  • Hard to split these two; draw probability sits at 39%.
  • Regular Serie D - Group E 2025/2026 form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 31.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 14%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 65.8%
Siena Clean Sheet 20%
Montevarchi Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Siena Montevarchi
Matches Played 30 30
Wins 16 11
Draws 7 13
Losses 7 6
Goals Scored 1.9 0.83
Goals Conceded 1.17 0.57
Expected Goals (xG) 1.44 1.13
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Apr 19, 2026 Serie D - Group E
Siena vs Montevarchi
0:0
Dec 7, 2025 Serie D - Group E
Montevarchi vs Siena
1:0
Jan 12, 2025 Serie D - Group E
Montevarchi vs Siena
0:1
Sep 15, 2024 Serie D - Group E
Siena vs Montevarchi
1:0
Jan 22, 2023 Serie C - Group B
Montevarchi vs Siena
1:2

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Siena 31 / 100
Montevarchi 30 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Siena Montevarchi

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Siena Win (1)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Recent resilience: Siena stayed unbeaten in 5 of the last 5 games.

Attacking prowess: Siena scored in 77% of their last 30 outings.

Montevarchi's defensive record shows goals conceded in 43% of 30 matches.

Historical meetings average 1.20 goals per match.

Scoring Trends

Siena VS Montevarchi
2.13 Goals Scored 0.88
1.38 Goals Conceded 0.75
75% Over 1.5 38%
50% Over 2.5 25%
50% Over 3.5 13%

Recent Form & Match History

Siena

(Home)
12 Sept
Siena
3 : 0
Mezzolara
06 Sept
Scandicci
1 : 1
Siena
23 Aug
San Donato Tavarnelle
1 : 1
Siena
22 Aug
Pistoiese
0 : 1
Siena
19 Aug
Sansovino
1 : 3
Siena
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Montevarchi

(Away)
12 Sept
Montevarchi
4 : 1
Tau
06 Sept
Lucchese
2 : 1
Montevarchi
19 Aug
Montevarchi
0 : 0
Figline
13 Aug
Montevarchi
1 : 0
Grassina
05 Aug
Pianese
2 : 0
Montevarchi
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League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Grosseto 34 22 6 6 58:25 72
2 Tau 34 18 9 7 53:33 63
3 Prato 34 20 5 9 49:29 63
4 Siena 34 17 9 8 57:35 60
5 Seravezza Pozzi 34 15 12 7 42:29 57
6 Terranuova Traiana 34 14 9 11 28:30 51
7 Foligno 34 14 9 11 45:37 51
8 Scandicci 34 11 15 8 39:32 48
9 Montevarchi 34 10 16 8 28:32 46
10 Sporting Trestina 34 10 12 12 40:42 42
11 San Donato Tavarnelle 34 9 13 12 30:35 40
12 Ghiviborgo 34 10 10 14 42:44 40
13 Orvietana 34 9 11 14 33:37 38
14 Follonica Gavorrano 34 9 10 15 36:49 37
15 Camaiore Calcio 34 9 8 17 41:54 35
16 Poggibonsi 34 7 10 17 29:46 31
17 Cannara 34 6 8 20 24:59 26
18 Vivi Altotevere Sansepolcro 34 2 16 16 20:46 22
Promotion - Serie D - Group E 2025/2026 (Play Offs)
Relegation - Serie D - Group E 2025/2026 (Play Out)