Sport Picks

Stadium Background

Sigma Olomouc vs MFK Karvina

Czech Republic Czech Republic

Chance Liga 2025/2026 Andruv stadion, Olomouc
Our Tip

Match Events

26' Event
Sturm D.
Assist: Barath P.
29' Event
Barath P.
Assist: Sylla A.
42'
Conde O.

AI Match Summary

Sigma Olomouc in this Chance Liga 2025/2026 tie, finishing 4-0. One-off knockout football delivers a decisive result.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

43%
Sigma Olomouc
15%
Draws
42%
MFK Karvina
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: Sigma Olomouc

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

43% / Low Confidence
  • Sigma Olomouc have won more games recently than MFK Karvina.
  • 43% chance of a draw — the model doesn't see a clear favorite.
  • Sigma Olomouc have the better recent form, but knockout football is a different beast — one bad day ends the campaign.
  • Historical meetings favor MFK Karvina, who have won 1 of the last 5 encounters.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 80%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 99%
Over 1.5 Goals 88%
Over 2.5 Goals 80%
Over 3.5 Goals 37.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 17%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 77.4%
Sigma Olomouc Clean Sheet 10%
MFK Karvina Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Sigma Olomouc MFK Karvina
Matches Played 29 27
Wins 16 15
Draws 4 1
Losses 9 11
Goals Scored 1.79 1.78
Goals Conceded 1.28 1.52
Expected Goals (xG) 1.50 1.88
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

May 23, 2026 Chance Liga
Sigma Olomouc vs MFK Karvina
4:0
May 16, 2026 Chance Liga
MFK Karvina vs Sigma Olomouc
1:3
Mar 15, 2026 Chance Liga
Sigma Olomouc vs MFK Karvina
2:2
Oct 18, 2025 Chance Liga
MFK Karvina vs Sigma Olomouc
1:1
Apr 5, 2025 Chance Liga
Sigma Olomouc vs MFK Karvina
1:2

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Sigma Olomouc Compare

Top Goalscorer Sturm D.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Barath P.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.15
Avg xA / game 0.75

MFK Karvina Compare

Avg xG / game 1.71
Avg xA / game 1.04

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Sigma Olomouc 29 / 100
MFK Karvina 30 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Sigma Olomouc MFK Karvina

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Sigma Olomouc Win (1)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Sigma Olomouc scored in 83% of their last 29 games.

MFK Karvina has conceded goals in 81% of their last 27 outings.

H2H data points to 3.40 goals as a typical output.

MFK Karvina's recent record shows 3 losses from the last 5 matches.

Scoring Trends

Sigma Olomouc VS MFK Karvina
2.13 Goals Scored 2.38
1.38 Goals Conceded 0.88
88% Over 1.5 88%
88% Over 2.5 75%
50% Over 3.5 25%

Recent Form & Match History

Sigma Olomouc

(Home)
20 Sept
Sigma Olomouc
0 : 3
Sparta Prague
13 Sept
Plzen
2 : 3
Sigma Olomouc
09 Sept
Prostejov
3 : 2
Sigma Olomouc
05 Sept
Sigma Olomouc
3 : 0
Bohemians 1905
29 Aug
Ostrava
1 : 0
Sigma Olomouc
Page 1 of 6

MFK Karvina

(Away)
18 Sept
MFK Karvina
3 : 2
Kromeriz
11 Sept
Trinec
3 : 2
MFK Karvina
04 Sept
MFK Karvina
2 : 0
SK Kladno
29 Aug
Pribram
2 : 1
MFK Karvina
26 Aug
FK Kozlovice
2 : 1
MFK Karvina
Page 1 of 6

Tournament Bracket & Draw

Semi-finals
Sigma Olomouc 4
Bohemians 1905 3
FK Pardubice 3
MFK Karvina 4
Final
Sigma Olomouc 7
MFK Karvina 1