Sport Picks

Tanzania

Ligi Kuu Bara 2023/2024 Benjamin Mkapa National Stadium

Geita Gold

Our Tip

Summary Win Prob Goals Form H2H Tactics Players Indices Predictions Timeline Heatmaps Accuracy Compare

AI Match Summary

Simba play Geita Gold in the Ligi Kuu Bara 2023/2024. Simba are favorites here. Recently, Simba averaged 1.98 goals scored and 0.45 conceded. Geita Gold averaged 0.63 goals scored and 1.33 conceded. In past meetings, Simba won 4, Geita Gold won 0, and they drew 1. Their last match on May 21, 2024 ended 4:1. Our numbers estimate xG of 1.50 for Simba and 0.75 for Geita Gold. This points to a Simba double chance or over markets.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

60%

Simba

25%

Draws

15%

Geita Gold

Draw rate projection: 25% Favored: Simba

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

91% / Very High Confidence

Simba picked up more points recently compared to Geita Gold.
Model forecasts higher goal threat for the host (1.50 vs 0.75 xG).
Past meetings show a clear pattern favoring the home side.
Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 91%

Over 1.5 Goals 63%

Over 2.5 Goals 47%

Over 3.5 Goals 28%

Over 4.5 Goals 14%

Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 37%

Simba Clean Sheet 27%

Geita Gold Clean Sheet 10%

First Half Goal 57%

Second Half Goal 60%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric	Simba	Geita Gold
Matches Played	40	30
Wins	30	5
Draws	10	9
Losses	0	16
Goals Scored	1.98	0.63
Goals Conceded	0.45	1.33
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA)	0.50	1.00

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

May 21, 2024 Ligi Kuu Bara

Simba vs Geita Gold

Possession: 41% - 53% Cards: 2 - 1

4:1

Feb 12, 2024 Ligi Kuu Bara

Geita Gold vs Simba

Possession: 46% - 54% Cards: 2 - 3

0:1

Dec 18, 2022 Ligi Kuu Bara

Geita Gold vs Simba

Possession: 47% - 51% Cards: 3 - 1

0:5

Aug 17, 2022 Ligi Kuu Bara

Simba vs Geita Gold

Possession: 50% - 48% Cards: 2 - 3

3:0

May 22, 2022 Ligi Kuu Bara

Geita Gold vs Simba

Possession: 45% - 53% Cards: 2 - 2

1:1

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Simba Compare

Top Goalscorer Chasambi L.

2 Goals

Assists Leader Ntibazonkiza S.

1 Ast

Avg xG / game 1.54

Avg xA / game 1

Geita Gold Compare

Top Goalscorer Luzendaze G.

1 Goals

Avg xG / game 0

Avg xA / game 0

Sokapicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Simba 59 / 100

Geita Gold 16 / 100

How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

Simba Geita Gold

Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Simba Win (1)

Secondary Pick Simba & Under 3.5

First Half Result Home Win (HT)

BTTS Outcome No (NG)

Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

Value Bet Detector (+EV)

Matches where our model probability exceeds implied bookmaker odds

1X2 Home Win

Value Edge +15.2%

1.92

Goals Over/Under Over 2.5 Goals

Value Edge +14.7%

2.44

*EV represents Expected Value. A positive value edge means the bookmaker has priced the selection significantly below its true statistical likelihood.

Attacking Heatmaps & Shot Locations

Dynamic heat overlays computed from tactical zone entries

Simba attacking → ← attacking Geita Gold

Sokapicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Simba scored in 90% of their last 40 games.

Geita Gold let in goals in 67% of their last 30 matches.

Games between these two average 3.20 goals.

Simba went unbeaten in 5 of their last 5 games.

Geita Gold lost 4 of their last 5 games.

Interactive Team Comparison Slider

Side-by-side comparison of team metrics

100 Points in last 5 24

2.00 Goals expected (xG) 0.00

0.50 Goals conceded expected (xGA) 1.00

League Standings

Pos	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Young Africans	30	26	2	2	71:14	80
2	Azam	30	21	6	3	63:21	69
3	Simba	30	21	6	3	59:25	69
4	Coastal Union	30	11	10	9	22:19	43
5	Kinondoni MC	30	8	13	9	27:39	37
6	Namungo	30	8	12	10	27:29	36
7	Singida Black Stars	30	9	9	12	29:36	36
8	Mashujaa	30	9	8	13	30:33	35
9	Tanzania Prisons	30	7	13	10	29:35	34
10	Kagera Sugar	30	7	13	10	23:32	34
11	Fountain Gate	30	8	9	13	29:39	33
12	Dodoma Jiji	30	8	9	13	19:32	33
13	JKT Tanzania	30	6	14	10	21:30	32
14	TRA United	30	5	12	13	20:41	27
15	Geita Gold	30	5	10	15	18:38	25
16	Mtibwa Sugar	30	5	6	19	30:54	21