Sport Picks
Simba vs Mtibwa Sugar
Tanzania
Ligi Kuu Bara 2025/2026 KMC Stadium, Dar es Salaam 
Match Events
12'
12'
Sub
Bajaber M. In: Kibu D.
Out: Bajaber M.
20'
20'
Mpanzu E.
Assist: Kapombe S.
32'
32'
Datius P.
AI Match Summary
Neither side could be separated in this Ligi Kuu Bara 2025/2026 matchup, with the score ending 1-1.
Win Probability Meter
Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles
85%
15%
0%
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: Simba
Model Confidence
Aggregate indicator score
85%
/ Very High Confidence
- Mtibwa Sugar haven't matched Simba's recent run of results.
- Simba are the model's pick here, at 90%.
- Regular Ligi Kuu Bara 2025/2026 form gives a decent read on both sides.
- High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).
- These two have met 5 times recently and Simba have taken 4 of them.
Goal Probability Engine
Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories
Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 19%
Over 4.5 Goals 9%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 28.400000000000002%
Simba Clean Sheet 68%
Mtibwa Sugar Clean Sheet 10%
Recent Team Form Analysis
Averages per match over historical game filters
| Metric | Simba | Mtibwa Sugar |
|---|---|---|
| Matches Played | 31 | 30 |
| Wins | 25 | 6 |
| Draws | 5 | 9 |
| Losses | 1 | 15 |
| Goals Scored | 1.97 | 0.83 |
| Goals Conceded | 0.39 | 1.6 |
| Expected Goals (xG) | 2.19 | 0.32 |
| Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) | 1.10 | 1.40 |
H2H
Historical prediction success rates across key markets
Jun 24, 2026 Ligi Kuu Bara
Mtibwa Sugar vs Simba
0:3
Jan 18, 2026 Ligi Kuu Bara
Simba vs Mtibwa Sugar
1:1
May 3, 2024 Ligi Kuu Bara
Simba vs Mtibwa Sugar
2:0
Aug 17, 2023 Ligi Kuu Bara
Mtibwa Sugar vs Simba
2:4
Mar 11, 2023 Ligi Kuu Bara
Mtibwa Sugar vs Simba
0:3
Key Player Impact Analysis
Key performers and expected goal involvement factors
Simba Compare
Top Goalscorer Mpanzu E.
1 Goals Avg xG / game 1.68
Avg xA / game 1.09
Mtibwa Sugar Compare
Top Goalscorer Magata F.
1 Goals Avg xG / game 0.29
Avg xA / game 0.18
SokaPicks Momentum Index
Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)
Simba 95 / 100
Mtibwa Sugar 10 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).
Attack & Defence Capability Index
Simba Mtibwa Sugar
AI Prediction Engine Forecast
Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets
Primary Pick Simba Win (1)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 3:0
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5
SokaPicks Smart Insights
Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system
Simba's goal record stands at 87% scoring rate across 31 recent games.
Mtibwa Sugar's defensive record shows goals conceded in 80% of 30 matches.
H2H data points to 3.20 goals as a typical output.
Simba went unbeaten in 5 of their last 5 games.
Scoring Trends
Simba VS Mtibwa Sugar
1.63 Goals Scored 0.5
0.13 Goals Conceded 2.75
50% Over 1.5 100%
38% Over 2.5 100%
13% Over 3.5 25%
Recent Form & Match History
Simba
(Home) 16 Sept
Azam
0 : 2 Simba
13 Sept
Simba
6 : 1 Mighty Wanderers FC
06 Sept
Mighty Wanderers FC
0 : 1 Simba
31 Aug
Simba
2 : 0 Geita Gold
27 Aug
Simba
1 : 0 Coastal Union
Page 1 of 7
13 Sept
Simba
6 : 1 Mighty Wanderers FC
31 Aug
Simba
2 : 0 Geita Gold
27 Aug
Simba
1 : 0 Coastal Union
12 Aug
Simba
0 : 1 Young Africans
25 Jul
Simba
0 : 0 Mogadishu City
Page 1 of 4
Mtibwa Sugar
(Away) 30 Jun
Namungo
2 : 1 Mtibwa Sugar
27 Jun
Tanzania Prisons
2 : 1 Mtibwa Sugar
24 Jun
Mtibwa Sugar
0 : 3 Simba
18 Jun
Pamba
4 : 0 Mtibwa Sugar
13 Jun
Mbeya City
1 : 0 Mtibwa Sugar
Page 1 of 6
30 Jun
Namungo
2 : 1 Mtibwa Sugar
27 Jun
Tanzania Prisons
2 : 1 Mtibwa Sugar
18 Jun
Pamba
4 : 0 Mtibwa Sugar
13 Jun
Mbeya City
1 : 0 Mtibwa Sugar
20 May
TRA United
2 : 1 Mtibwa Sugar
Page 1 of 3
League Standings
| Pos | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Young Africans | 30 | 23 | 6 | 1 | 71:9 | 75 |
| 2 | Simba | 30 | 22 | 7 | 1 | 54:11 | 73 |
| 3 | Azam | 30 | 18 | 10 | 2 | 46:12 | 64 |
| 4 | Singida Black Stars | 30 | 15 | 5 | 10 | 47:35 | 50 |
| 5 | TRA United | 30 | 11 | 10 | 9 | 33:28 | 43 |
| 6 | JKT Tanzania | 30 | 10 | 12 | 8 | 30:33 | 42 |
| 7 | Pamba | 30 | 9 | 9 | 12 | 32:35 | 36 |
| 8 | Coastal Union | 30 | 9 | 9 | 12 | 31:37 | 36 |
| 9 | Dodoma Jiji | 30 | 8 | 11 | 11 | 25:36 | 35 |
| 10 | Namungo | 30 | 7 | 13 | 10 | 25:32 | 34 |
| 11 | Mashujaa | 30 | 7 | 12 | 11 | 15:27 | 33 |
| 12 | Fountain Gate | 30 | 9 | 6 | 15 | 25:44 | 33 |
| 13 | Tanzania Prisons | 30 | 9 | 5 | 16 | 23:41 | 32 |
| 14 | Mbeya City | 30 | 7 | 9 | 14 | 24:41 | 30 |
| 15 | Mtibwa Sugar | 30 | 6 | 9 | 15 | 25:48 | 27 |
| 16 | Kinondoni MC | 30 | 2 | 3 | 25 | 16:53 | 9 |
Promotion - CAF Champions League (Qualification)
Promotion - CAF Confederation Cup (Qualification)
Relegation - Ligi Kuu Bara 2025/2026 (Relegation)
