Sport Picks

Stadium Background

Simba vs Stade Malien

Africa Africa

CAF Champions League 2025/2026 KMC Stadium, Dar es Salaam
Simba Logo

Simba

1 - 0
FT
Stade Malien Logo

Stade Malien

Our Tip

Match Events

4' Event
Oura A. A.
Assist: Mwalimu S.
12'
Bode A.
33'
Traore N.
Summary Win Prob Goals Form H2H Tactics Players Indices Predictions Timeline Accuracy Compare

AI Match Summary

Simba in this CAF Champions League 2025/2026 matchup, with the score ending 1-0 — backing the pre-match view that favored Simba.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

27%
Simba
35%
Draws
38%
Stade Malien
Draw rate projection: 35% Favored: Stade Malien

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

38% / Low Confidence
  • Simba have won more games recently than Stade Malien.
  • 38% — that's where the model lands on Stade Malien taking it.
  • European nights carry their own weight — this CAF Champions League 2025/2026 fixture won't be treated like a routine game.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 75%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 15%
Over 4.5 Goals 7%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 21.200000000000003%
Simba Clean Sheet 22%
Stade Malien Clean Sheet 68%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Simba Stade Malien
Matches Played 33 30
Wins 21 17
Draws 10 7
Losses 2 6
Goals Scored 1.64 1.33
Goals Conceded 0.42 0.57
Expected Goals (xG) 1.27 1.06
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Feb 14, 2026 CAF Champions League
Simba vs Stade Malien
1:0
Nov 30, 2025 CAF Champions League
Stade Malien vs Simba
2:1

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Simba Compare

Top Goalscorer Oura A. A.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 0.98
Avg xA / game 0.64

Stade Malien Compare

Avg xG / game 0.96
Avg xA / game 0.59

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Simba 16 / 100
Stade Malien 77 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Simba Stade Malien

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Stade Malien Win (2)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 0:1
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Attacking prowess: Simba scored in 76% of their last 33 outings.

These sides typically produce 2.00 goals when they meet.

Simba has registered 4 games unbeaten in their last 5 outings.

Stade Malien has conceded goals in 33% of their last 30 outings.

Scoring Trends

Simba VS Stade Malien
1.88 Goals Scored 2
0.13 Goals Conceded 0.67
50% Over 1.5 100%
38% Over 2.5 50%
13% Over 3.5 17%

Recent Form & Match History

Simba

(Home)
12 Aug
Simba
0 : 1
Young Africans
31 Jul
Singida Black Stars
1 : 2
Simba
28 Jul
Jamus
0 : 0
Simba
25 Jul
Simba
0 : 0
Mogadishu City
04 Jul
Simba
1 : 0
Azam
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Stade Malien

(Away)
13 Jun
Diarra
0 : 2
Stade Malien
09 Jun
Stade Malien
2 : 1
Binga
04 Jun
Bakaridjan
0 : 2
Stade Malien
31 May
Stade Malien
2 : 2
USFAS Bamako
24 May
Mali Coura
1 : 1
Stade Malien
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League Standings (Group 1)

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Pyramids 6 5 1 0 14:2 16
2 Berkane 6 3 1 2 8:6 10
3 Power Dynamos 6 2 1 3 4:7 7
4 Rivers United 6 0 1 5 2:13 1
Promotion - CAF Champions League 2025/2026 (Play Offs: 1/2-finals)

League Standings (Group 2)

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Al Ahly 6 2 4 0 8:3 10
2 FAR Rabat 6 2 3 1 3:2 9
3 Young Africans 6 2 2 2 5:4 8
4 Kabylie 6 0 3 3 1:8 3
Promotion - CAF Champions League 2025/2026 (Play Offs: 1/2-finals)

League Standings (Group 3)

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Al-Hilal Omdurman 6 3 2 1 9:7 11
2 Mamelodi Sundowns 6 2 3 1 9:6 9
3 MC Alger 6 2 1 3 5:6 7
4 St Eloi Lupopo 6 1 2 3 4:8 5
Promotion - CAF Champions League 2025/2026 (Play Offs: 1/2-finals)

League Standings (Group 4)

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Stade Malien 6 3 2 1 5:2 11
2 Esperance Tunis 6 2 3 1 6:4 9
3 Petro Atletico 6 1 3 2 3:6 6
4 Simba 6 1 2 3 5:7 5
Promotion - CAF Champions League 2025/2026 (Play Offs: 1/2-finals)