Sport Picks

Tanzania

Ligi Kuu Bara Airtel Stadium

Mtibwa Sugar

Our Tip

Summary Win Prob Goals Form H2H Tactics Players Indices Predictions Timeline Heatmaps Accuracy Compare

AI Match Summary

Singida Black Stars play Mtibwa Sugar in the Ligi Kuu Bara. Singida Black Stars are favorites here. Recently, Singida Black Stars averaged 1.58 goals scored and 1.09 conceded. Mtibwa Sugar averaged 0.83 goals scored and 1.6 conceded. In past meetings, Singida Black Stars won 5, Mtibwa Sugar won 0, and they drew 0. Their last match on May 9, 2026 ended 4:0. Our numbers estimate xG of 2.44 for Singida Black Stars and 0.88 for Mtibwa Sugar. This points to a Singida Black Stars double chance or over markets.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

61%

Singida Black Stars

15%

Draws

24%

Mtibwa Sugar

Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: Singida Black Stars

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

87% / Very High Confidence

Singida Black Stars picked up more points recently compared to Mtibwa Sugar.
Model forecasts higher goal threat for the host (2.44 vs 0.88 xG).
Past meetings show a clear pattern favoring the home side.
High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 56%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 89%

Over 1.5 Goals 72%

Over 2.5 Goals 56%

Over 3.5 Goals 34%

Over 4.5 Goals 17%

Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 51%

Singida Black Stars Clean Sheet 25%

Mtibwa Sugar Clean Sheet 10%

First Half Goal 65%

Second Half Goal 68%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric	Singida Black Stars	Mtibwa Sugar
Matches Played	33	30
Wins	17	6
Draws	4	9
Losses	12	15
Goals Scored	1.58	0.83
Goals Conceded	1.09	1.6
Expected Goals (xG)	2.38	0.88
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA)	0.88	2.50

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

May 9, 2026 Ligi Kuu Bara

Singida Black Stars vs Mtibwa Sugar

Possession: 46% - 60% Cards: 2 - 3

4:0

Feb 22, 2026 Ligi Kuu Bara

Mtibwa Sugar vs Singida Black Stars

Possession: 52% - 51% Cards: 2 - 2

1:3

May 28, 2024 Ligi Kuu Bara

Singida Black Stars vs Mtibwa Sugar

Possession: 58% - 46% Cards: 0 - 0

5:1

Feb 12, 2024 Ligi Kuu Bara

Mtibwa Sugar vs Singida Black Stars

Possession: 47% - 45% Cards: 4 - 4

2:3

Dec 24, 2022 Ligi Kuu Bara

Singida Black Stars vs Mtibwa Sugar

Possession: 40% - 50% Cards: 0 - 2

3:1

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Singida Black Stars Compare

Top Goalscorer Nduwumwe M.

2 Goals

Assists Leader Jarjou L.

2 Ast

Avg xG / game 1.83

Avg xA / game 1.19

Mtibwa Sugar Compare

Avg xG / game 0.8

Avg xA / game 0.49

Sokapicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Singida Black Stars 60 / 100

Mtibwa Sugar 24 / 100

How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

Singida Black Stars Mtibwa Sugar

Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Singida Black Stars Win (1)

Secondary Pick Singida Black Stars & Over 2.5

First Half Result Home Win (HT)

BTTS Outcome No (NG)

Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

Value Bet Detector (+EV)

Matches where our model probability exceeds implied bookmaker odds

1X2 Home Win

Value Edge +15.3%

1.89

Goals Over/Under Over 2.5 Goals

Value Edge +12%

2.00

*EV represents Expected Value. A positive value edge means the bookmaker has priced the selection significantly below its true statistical likelihood.

Attacking Heatmaps & Shot Locations

Dynamic heat overlays computed from tactical zone entries

Singida Black Stars attacking → ← attacking Mtibwa Sugar

Sokapicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Singida Black Stars scored in 76% of their last 33 games.

Mtibwa Sugar let in goals in 80% of their last 30 matches.

Games between these two average 4.60 goals.

Singida Black Stars went unbeaten in 3 of their last 5 games.

Mtibwa Sugar lost 5 of their last 5 games.

Interactive Team Comparison Slider

Side-by-side comparison of team metrics

55 Points in last 5 27

2.38 Goals expected (xG) 0.88

0.88 Goals conceded expected (xGA) 2.50

League Standings

Pos	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Young Africans	30	23	6	1	71:9	75
2	Simba	30	22	7	1	54:11	73
3	Azam	30	18	10	2	46:12	64
4	Singida Black Stars	30	15	5	10	47:35	50
5	TRA United	30	11	10	9	33:28	43
6	JKT Tanzania	30	10	12	8	30:33	42
7	Pamba	30	9	9	12	32:35	36
8	Coastal Union	30	9	9	12	31:37	36
9	Dodoma Jiji	30	8	11	11	25:36	35
10	Namungo	30	7	13	10	25:32	34
11	Mashujaa	30	7	12	11	15:27	33
12	Fountain Gate	30	9	6	15	25:44	33
13	Tanzania Prisons	30	9	5	16	23:41	32
14	Mbeya City	30	7	9	14	24:41	30
15	Mtibwa Sugar	30	6	9	15	25:48	27
16	Kinondoni MC	30	2	3	25	16:53	9