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Sittard vs Excelsior - H2H Analysis, Preview & Predictions

Netherlands Netherlands

Eredivisie Fortuna Sittard Stadion, Sittard
Our Tip

Match Events

41'
Simons S.
46'
Sub
Naujoks N. In: Thorsteinsson A.
Out: Naujoks N.
46'
Sub
Simons S. In: Romeny O.
Out: Simons S.

AI Match Summary

Sittard in this Eredivisie matchup, with the score ending 1-0 — backing the pre-match view that favored Sittard.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

64%
Sittard
30%
Draws
6%
Excelsior
Draw rate projection: 30% Favored: Sittard

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

64% / High Confidence
  • Sittard have won more games recently than Excelsior.
  • 64% — that's where the model lands on Sittard taking it.
  • Regular Eredivisie form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 99%
Over 1.5 Goals 88%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 70%
Over 4.5 Goals 32%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 79.8%
Sittard Clean Sheet 14%
Excelsior Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Sittard Excelsior
Matches Played 28 28
Wins 13 12
Draws 4 5
Losses 11 11
Goals Scored 1.5 1.96
Goals Conceded 1.82 1.61
Expected Goals (xG) 1.88 1.63
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Oct 25, 2026 Eredivisie
Sittard vs Excelsior
1:0
Feb 20, 2026 Eredivisie
Sittard vs Excelsior
2:1
Oct 19, 2025 Eredivisie
Excelsior vs Sittard
1:0
Mar 3, 2024 Eredivisie
Sittard vs Excelsior
5:2
Aug 26, 2023 Eredivisie
Excelsior vs Sittard
2:2

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Sittard Compare

Top Goalscorer Guth R.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.45
Avg xA / game 0.94

Excelsior Compare

Avg xG / game 1.48
Avg xA / game 0.91

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Sittard 84 / 100
Excelsior 10 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Sittard Excelsior

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Sittard Win (1)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 6:4
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Attacking prowess: Sittard scored in 89% of their last 28 outings.

Defensive concern: Excelsior conceded in 82% of 28 recent games.

H2H data points to 3.20 goals as a typical output.

Sittard has registered 5 games unbeaten in their last 5 outings.

Scoring Trends

Sittard VS Excelsior
1.63 Goals Scored 1.38
1.88 Goals Conceded 2.13
88% Over 1.5 88%
63% Over 2.5 88%
50% Over 3.5 50%

Recent Form & Match History

Sittard

(Home)
25 Oct
Sittard
1 : 0
Excelsior
18 Oct
Nijmegen
2 : 2
Sittard
10 Oct
Sittard
1 : 1
Twente
03 Oct
Genk
1 : 2
Sittard
19 Sept
Willem II
0 : 1
Sittard
Page 1 of 6

Excelsior

(Away)
25 Oct
Sittard
1 : 0
Excelsior
16 Oct
Heerenveen
4 : 0
Excelsior
11 Oct
Excelsior
1 : 5
Groningen
19 Sept
Ajax
2 : 2
Excelsior
13 Sept
Excelsior
1 : 2
Utrecht
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Feyenoord 10 7 3 0 32:11 24
2 Ajax 10 6 3 1 29:13 21
3 PSV 10 6 2 2 28:13 20
4 Twente 10 6 2 2 19:10 20
5 AZ Alkmaar 10 6 2 2 20:12 20
6 Sittard 10 5 3 2 17:17 18
7 Heerenveen 10 4 3 3 18:13 15
8 Groningen 10 4 3 3 24:21 15
9 G.A. Eagles 10 3 5 2 23:23 14
10 Cambuur 10 3 3 4 19:22 12
11 Utrecht 10 3 3 4 17:27 12
12 Nijmegen 10 2 5 3 17:18 11
13 Excelsior 10 3 2 5 16:19 11
14 Sparta Rotterdam 10 2 3 5 17:24 9
15 Zwolle 10 2 2 6 11:23 8
16 Telstar 10 1 3 6 12:21 6
17 Den Haag 10 1 3 6 13:23 6
18 Willem II 10 0 2 8 10:32 2
Promotion - Champions League 2027/2028 (League phase)
Promotion - Champions League 2027/2028 (Qualification)
Promotion - Europa League 2027/2028 (Qualification)
Promotion - Eredivisie (Conference League - Play Offs)
Relegation - Eredivisie (Relegation - Play Offs)
Relegation - Eerste Divisie 2027/2028 (Main)