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Skovde vs AFC Malmo

Sweden Sweden

Division 1 - Södra Södermalms IP
Our Tip

AI Match Summary

Skovde play AFC Malmo in the Division 1 - Södra. It looks like a close match. Recently, Skovde averaged 1.13 goals scored and 2.13 conceded. AFC Malmo averaged 2.63 goals scored and 1.38 conceded. In past meetings, Skovde won 0, AFC Malmo won 1, and they drew 2. Their last match on May 23, 2026 ended 0:4. Our numbers estimate xG of 1.25 for Skovde and 2.38 for AFC Malmo. This points to a AFC Malmo double chance or over markets.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

4%
Skovde
6%
Draws
90%
AFC Malmo
Draw rate projection: 6% Favored: AFC Malmo

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

95% / Very High Confidence
  • AFC Malmo has accumulated more wins in recent fixtures compared to Skovde.
  • Model forecasts a 90% win probability edge for AFC Malmo.
  • League standings and seasonal metrics in Division 1 - Södra provide steady trend data.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 99%
Over 1.5 Goals 88%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 50%
Over 4.5 Goals 23%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 78%
Skovde Clean Sheet 10%
AFC Malmo Clean Sheet 11%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Skovde AFC Malmo
Matches Played 30 30
Wins 11 15
Draws 9 4
Losses 10 11
Goals Scored 1.13 2.63
Goals Conceded 2.13 1.38
Expected Goals (xG) 1.13 2.63
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 2.13 1.38

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

May 23, 2026 Division 1 - Södra
Skovde vs AFC Malmo
0:4
Sep 7, 2025 Division 1 - Södra
AFC Malmo vs Skovde
1:1
May 10, 2025 Division 1 - Södra
Skovde vs AFC Malmo
2:2

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Skovde Compare

Avg xG / game 0.87
Avg xA / game 0.56

AFC Malmo Compare

Top Goalscorer Sener C.
3 Goals
Assists Leader Reinholdsson A.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 2.39
Avg xA / game 1.46

Sokapicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Skovde 10 / 100
AFC Malmo 83 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Skovde AFC Malmo

Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick AFC Win (2)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals & BTTS Yes
Correct Score 1:2
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

Sokapicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Skovde scored in 67% of their last 30 games.

AFC Malmo let in goals in 80% of their last 30 matches.

Games between these two average 3.33 goals.

Skovde went unbeaten in 2 of their last 5 games.

AFC Malmo lost 1 of their last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Skovde VS AFC Malmo
1.13 Goals Scored 2.63
2.13 Goals Conceded 1.38
88% Over 1.5 88%
63% Over 2.5 75%
50% Over 3.5 50%

League Standings

PosTeamPWDLGDPts
1Trelleborg1495033:1232
2AFC Malmo1483328:1627
3Atvidaberg1475230:1826
4Lunds Bois1475226:1626
5Rosengard1464423:1922
6Hassleholms IF1463527:2221
7Tvaaker1463517:1921
8Eskilsminne1562725:2820
9Olympic1461722:2419
10Jonkoping1453620:1518
11Angelholm1437422:2216
12Skovde1437411:2016
13Kristianstad1535716:2414
14Laholms1441921:2913
15Trollhattan1427518:2613
16Utsikten14111210:394