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SL Benfica W vs Arsenal W

Europe Europe

Champions League Women 2025/2026 Estádio da Luz
Our Tip

AI Match Summary

SL Benfica W play Arsenal W in the Champions League Women 2025/2026. It looks like a close match. Recently, SL Benfica W averaged 2.33 goals scored and 0.93 conceded. Arsenal W averaged 2.32 goals scored and 0.61 conceded. In past meetings, SL Benfica W won 0, Arsenal W won 1, and they drew 0. Their last match on Oct 16, 2025 ended 0:2. Our numbers estimate xG of 1.72 for SL Benfica W and 1.78 for Arsenal W. This points to a Arsenal W double chance or over markets.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

39%
SL Benfica W
15%
Draws
46%
Arsenal W
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: Arsenal W

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

72% / Medium Confidence
  • SL Benfica W picked up more points recently compared to Arsenal W.
  • Model forecasts higher goal threat for the host (1.72 vs 1.78 xG).
  • Past meetings show a clear pattern favoring the visitors.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 53%
Over 3.5 Goals 32%
Over 4.5 Goals 16%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 44%
SL Benfica W Clean Sheet 11%
Arsenal W Clean Sheet 10%
First Half Goal 74%
Second Half Goal 78%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric SL Benfica W Arsenal W
Matches Played 30 31
Wins 21 24
Draws 4 3
Losses 5 4
Goals Scored 2.33 2.32
Goals Conceded 0.93 0.61
Expected Goals (xG) 2.57 3.00
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 0.57 0.88

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Oct 16, 2025 Champions League Women
SL Benfica W vs Arsenal W
0:2

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

SL Benfica W Compare

Avg xG / game 1.98
Avg xA / game 1.28

Arsenal W Compare

Top Goalscorer Mead B.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Russo A.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 2.73
Avg xA / game 1.67

Sokapicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

SL Benfica W 37 / 100
Arsenal W 43 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
SL Benfica W Arsenal W

Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Double Chance: Arsenal W or Draw (X2)
Secondary Pick Under 3.5 Goals
First Half Result Draw (HT)
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

Value Bet Detector (+EV)

Matches where our model probability exceeds implied bookmaker odds

1X2 Home Win
Value Edge +26%
3.23
Goals Over/Under Over 2.5 Goals
Value Edge +12.9%
2.13
*EV represents Expected Value. A positive value edge means the bookmaker has priced the selection significantly below its true statistical likelihood.

Attacking Heatmaps & Shot Locations

Dynamic heat overlays computed from tactical zone entries

SL Benfica W attacking → ← attacking Arsenal W

Sokapicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

SL Benfica W scored in 90% of their last 30 games.

Arsenal W let in goals in 45% of their last 31 matches.

Games between these two average 2.00 goals.

SL Benfica W went unbeaten in 5 of their last 5 games.

Arsenal W lost 1 of their last 5 games.

Interactive Team Comparison Slider

Side-by-side comparison of team metrics

67 Points in last 5 75
2.57 Goals expected (xG) 3.00
0.57 Goals conceded expected (xGA) 0.88

League Standings

PosTeam P W D L GD Pts
1Barcelona W651020:316
2Lyon W651018:516
3Chelsea W642020:314
4Bayern Munich W641114:1313
5Arsenal W640211:612
6Manchester United W64027:912
7Real Madrid W632113:711
8Juventus W631213:810
9Wolfsburg W630313:109
10Paris FC W62226:98
11Atl. Madrid W621313:97
12Leuven W61325:106
13Valerenga W61144:94
14AS Roma W61149:194
15Twente W60334:103
16SL Benfica W60244:112
17PSG W60244:122
18St. Polten W60153:281