Sport Picks

Stadium Background

Sliven vs Karnobat

Bulgaria Bulgaria

Third League - South-East 2023/2024 Hadzhi Dimitar Stadium, Sliven
Our Tip

AI Match Summary

Sliven in this Third League - South-East 2023/2024 matchup, with the score ending 2-1 — backing the pre-match view that favored Sliven.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

85%
Sliven
15%
Draws
0%
Karnobat
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: Sliven

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

85% / Very High Confidence
  • Karnobat haven't matched Sliven's recent run of results.
  • Sliven are the model's pick here, at 60%.
  • Regular Third League - South-East 2023/2024 form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 93%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 99%
Over 1.5 Goals 100%
Over 2.5 Goals 93%
Over 3.5 Goals 50%
Over 4.5 Goals 23%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 64.6%
Sliven Clean Sheet 10%
Karnobat Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Sliven Karnobat
Matches Played 30 32
Wins 9 2
Draws 5 1
Losses 16 29
Goals Scored 1.47 0.41
Goals Conceded 2.27 3.16
Expected Goals (xG) 2.10 4.00
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Apr 27, 2024 Third League - South-East
Sliven vs Karnobat
2:1
Oct 15, 2023 Third League - South-East
Karnobat vs Sliven
2:0
Mar 25, 2023 Third League - South-East
Karnobat vs Sliven
1:4
Sep 11, 2022 Third League - South-East
Sliven vs Karnobat
0:0
Mar 13, 2016 Third League - South-East
Sliven vs Karnobat
0:5

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Sliven 56 / 100
Karnobat 18 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Sliven Karnobat

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Sliven Win (1)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Karnobat let in goals in 94% of their last 32 matches.

Karnobat's recent record shows 5 losses from the last 5 matches.

Sliven scored in 63% of their last 30 games.

These sides typically produce 3.00 goals when they meet.

Scoring Trends

Sliven VS Karnobat
0 Goals Scored 0
13 Goals Conceded 3
100% Over 1.5 100%
100% Over 2.5 100%
100% Over 3.5 0%

Recent Form & Match History

Sliven

(Home)
27 Jan
Beroe
13 : 0
Sliven
25 Jan
Chernomorets 1919
5 : 3
Sliven
17 Jul
Sozopol
4 : 2
Sliven
01 Jun
Sekirovo Rakovski
2 : 0
Sliven
25 May
Sliven
5 : 2
Levski Karlovo
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Karnobat

(Away)
31 May
Maritsa Milevo
3 : 0
Karnobat
24 May
Karnobat
0 : 3
Dimitrovgrad
17 May
Karnobat
0 : 3
OFC Haskovo
14 May
Yambol 1915
3 : 0
Karnobat
10 May
Karnobat
0 : 3
Spartak Plovdiv
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League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Nesebar 38 29 8 1 121:39 95
2 OFC Haskovo 38 30 3 5 97:26 93
3 Spartak Plovdiv 38 29 6 3 122:22 93
4 Gigant Saedinenie 38 21 8 9 81:43 71
5 Zagorets 38 21 6 11 79:42 69
6 Dimitrovgrad 38 19 10 9 60:40 67
7 Botev II 38 18 7 13 84:55 61
8 Atletik Kuklen 38 18 4 16 60:71 58
9 Rozova Dolina 38 17 5 16 60:50 56
10 Rodopa Smolyan 38 15 6 17 64:63 51
11 Asenovets 38 14 6 18 59:73 48
12 Lok. Plovdiv II 38 14 5 19 65:59 47
13 Sozopol 38 12 10 16 57:53 46
14 Sekirovo Rakovski 38 11 7 20 59:75 40
15 Levski Karlovo 38 11 5 22 56:91 38
16 Yambol 1915 38 9 10 19 49:82 37
17 Karnobat 38 11 1 26 46:106 34
18 Sliven 38 8 6 24 42:127 30
19 Sokol Markovo 38 8 3 27 36:98 27
20 Beroe II 38 6 2 30 26:108 20
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