Sport Picks

Stadium Background

Slovenia vs Norway

Europe Europe

UEFA Nations League 2024/2025 Stadion Stozice
Our Tip

AI Match Summary

Slovenia play Norway in the UEFA Nations League 2024/2025. It looks like a close match. Recently, Slovenia averaged 1.03 goals scored and 1.07 conceded. Norway averaged 2.66 goals scored and 1.1 conceded. In past meetings, Slovenia won 1, Norway won 2, and they drew 2. Their last match on Nov 14, 2024 ended 1:4. Our numbers estimate xG of 0.93 for Slovenia and 1.77 for Norway. This points to a Norway double chance or over markets.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

27%
Slovenia
33%
Draws
40%
Norway
Draw rate projection: 33% Favored: Norway

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

75% / High Confidence
  • Slovenia picked up more points recently compared to Norway.
  • Model forecasts higher goal threat for the host (0.93 vs 1.77 xG).
  • Past meetings show a clear pattern favoring the visitors.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 56%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 90%
Over 1.5 Goals 77%
Over 2.5 Goals 56%
Over 3.5 Goals 34%
Over 4.5 Goals 17%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 58%
Slovenia Clean Sheet 11%
Norway Clean Sheet 16%
First Half Goal 69%
Second Half Goal 73%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Slovenia Norway
Matches Played 30 29
Wins 10 19
Draws 13 5
Losses 7 5
Goals Scored 1.03 2.66
Goals Conceded 1.07 1.1
Expected Goals (xG) 0.86 2.25
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.29 1.00

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Nov 14, 2024 UEFA Nations League
Slovenia vs Norway
1:4
Oct 10, 2024 UEFA Nations League
Norway vs Slovenia
3:0
Sep 24, 2022 UEFA Nations League
Slovenia vs Norway
2:1
Jun 9, 2022 UEFA Nations League
Norway vs Slovenia
0:0
Nov 16, 2018 UEFA Nations League
Slovenia vs Norway
1:1

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Slovenia Compare

Avg xG / game 0.66
Avg xA / game 0.43

Norway Compare

Top Goalscorer Nusa A.
2 Goals
Assists Leader Haaland E.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 2.05
Avg xA / game 1.25

Sokapicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Slovenia 27 / 100
Norway 39 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Slovenia Norway

Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Double Chance: Norway or Draw (X2)
Secondary Pick Under 3.5 Goals
First Half Result Draw (HT)
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

Value Bet Detector (+EV)

Matches where our model probability exceeds implied bookmaker odds

1X2 Home Win
Value Edge +42%
5.26
Goals Over/Under Over 2.5 Goals
Value Edge +12%
2.00
*EV represents Expected Value. A positive value edge means the bookmaker has priced the selection significantly below its true statistical likelihood.

Attacking Heatmaps & Shot Locations

Dynamic heat overlays computed from tactical zone entries

Slovenia attacking → ← attacking Norway

Sokapicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Slovenia scored in 70% of their last 30 games.

Norway let in goals in 66% of their last 29 matches.

Games between these two average 2.60 goals.

Slovenia went unbeaten in 3 of their last 5 games.

Norway lost 1 of their last 5 games.

Match Risk Analysis

Assessing potential disruptors and external variables affecting prediction reliability

Risk Level: Moderate
Risk Factor

Busy schedule: Managers might rest key players, which can affect team cohesion.

Risk Factor

European tournament. Big stakes for both clubs, so expect a tense, high-pressure match.

Risk Factor

Pressure: A tense match where mistakes or cards can change things quickly.

Interactive Team Comparison Slider

Side-by-side comparison of team metrics

43 Points in last 5 62
0.86 Goals expected (xG) 2.25
1.29 Goals conceded expected (xGA) 1.00

League Standings

PosTeam P W D L GD Pts
1Czech Republic63219:811
2Ukraine62228:88
3Georgia62137:67
4Albania62134:67
PosTeam P W D L GD Pts
1England650116:315
2Greece650111:415
3Ireland62043:126
4Finland60062:130
PosTeam P W D L GD Pts
1Norway641115:713
2Austria632114:511
3Slovenia62227:98
4Kazakhstan60150:151
PosTeam P W D L GD Pts
1Wales63309:412
2Turkey63219:611
3Iceland621310:137
4Montenegro61054:93