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Smederevo vs Dinamo Jug

Serbia Serbia

Mozzart Bet Prva Liga 2025/2026 Stadion FK Smederevo
Our Tip

AI Match Summary

Smederevo play Dinamo Jug in the Mozzart Bet Prva Liga 2025/2026. It looks like a close match. Recently, Smederevo averaged 1.45 goals scored and 0.97 conceded. Dinamo Jug averaged 1.17 goals scored and 0.69 conceded. In past meetings, Smederevo won 2, Dinamo Jug won 0, and they drew 1. Their last match on May 2, 2026 ended 2:1. Our numbers estimate xG of 0.94 for Smederevo and 1.06 for Dinamo Jug. This points to a Smederevo double chance or over markets.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

35%
Smederevo
31%
Draws
34%
Dinamo Jug
Draw rate projection: 31% Favored: Smederevo

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

69% / Medium Confidence
  • Smederevo picked up more points recently compared to Dinamo Jug.
  • Model forecasts higher goal threat for the host (0.94 vs 1.06 xG).
  • Past meetings show a clear pattern favoring the home side.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 59%
Over 2.5 Goals 39%
Over 3.5 Goals 23%
Over 4.5 Goals 12%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 36%
Smederevo Clean Sheet 22%
Dinamo Jug Clean Sheet 16%
First Half Goal 53%
Second Half Goal 56%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Smederevo Dinamo Jug
Matches Played 29 29
Wins 13 13
Draws 6 11
Losses 10 5
Goals Scored 1.45 1.17
Goals Conceded 0.97 0.69
Expected Goals (xG) 1.38 0.75
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.38 0.50

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

May 2, 2026 Mozzart Bet Prva Liga
Smederevo vs Dinamo Jug
2:1
Nov 2, 2025 Mozzart Bet Prva Liga
Dinamo Jug vs Smederevo
2:2
Aug 2, 2025 Mozzart Bet Prva Liga
Smederevo vs Dinamo Jug
2:0

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Smederevo Compare

Top Goalscorer Spiridonovic S.
2 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.06
Avg xA / game 0.69

Dinamo Jug Compare

Top Goalscorer Djurickovic P.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 0.68
Avg xA / game 0.42

Sokapicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Smederevo 36 / 100
Dinamo Jug 34 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Smederevo Dinamo Jug

Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Double Chance: Smederevo or Draw (1X)
Secondary Pick Under 3.5 Goals
First Half Result Home Win (HT)
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

Value Bet Detector (+EV)

Matches where our model probability exceeds implied bookmaker odds

1X2 Home Win
Value Edge +29.5%
3.70
Goals Over/Under Over 2.5 Goals
Value Edge +18.2%
3.03
*EV represents Expected Value. A positive value edge means the bookmaker has priced the selection significantly below its true statistical likelihood.

Attacking Heatmaps & Shot Locations

Dynamic heat overlays computed from tactical zone entries

Smederevo attacking → ← attacking Dinamo Jug

Sokapicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Smederevo scored in 55% of their last 29 games.

Dinamo Jug let in goals in 48% of their last 29 matches.

Games between these two average 3.00 goals.

Smederevo went unbeaten in 4 of their last 5 games.

Dinamo Jug lost 0 of their last 5 games.

Interactive Team Comparison Slider

Side-by-side comparison of team metrics

45 Points in last 5 50
1.38 Goals expected (xG) 0.75
1.38 Goals conceded expected (xGA) 0.50