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Smorgon vs FC Minsk - H2H Analysis, Preview & Predictions

Belarus Belarus

Belarusian Cup Yunost Stadium, Smorgon
Smorgon Logo

Smorgon

3 - 4
FT
FC Minsk Logo

FC Minsk

Our Tip

Match Events

18' Event
Dukso M.
40' Event
Dieye M.
45' Event
Sokol A.
Summary Win Prob Goals Form H2H Tactics Players Indices Predictions Timeline Accuracy Compare

AI Match Summary

First leg ended 3-4. This leg finished 3-4.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

47%
Smorgon
20%
Draws
33%
FC Minsk
Draw rate projection: 20% Favored: Smorgon

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

47% / Medium Confidence
  • Form's been kind to FC Minsk lately — more wins on the board than Smorgon.
  • Model gives Smorgon a 47% chance of winning this.
  • FC Minsk arrive in better shape, but cup ties don't always follow form.
  • Historical meetings favor FC Minsk, who have won 2 of the last 5 encounters.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 6.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 3%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 67.8%
Smorgon Clean Sheet 20%
FC Minsk Clean Sheet 12%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Smorgon FC Minsk
Matches Played 28 29
Wins 10 12
Draws 6 5
Losses 12 12
Goals Scored 1.54 1.24
Goals Conceded 1.32 1.24
Expected Goals (xG) 1.19 0.81
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Jul 18, 2026 Belarusian Cup
Smorgon vs FC Minsk
3:4
Feb 28, 2026 Club Friendly
FC Minsk vs Smorgon
0:1
Oct 24, 2025 Vysshaya Liga
FC Minsk vs Smorgon
2:2
Jun 1, 2025 Vysshaya Liga
Smorgon vs FC Minsk
0:2
Feb 22, 2025 Club Friendly
FC Minsk vs Smorgon
0:0

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Smorgon Compare

Top Goalscorer Dukso M.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Yablonskiy M.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 0.92
Avg xA / game 0.59

FC Minsk Compare

Top Goalscorer Dieye M.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Sokol A.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 0.74
Avg xA / game 0.45

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Smorgon 49 / 100
FC Minsk 22 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Smorgon FC Minsk

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Smorgon Win (1)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Smorgon found the back of the net in 75% of recent matches (28 games).

FC Minsk has conceded goals in 72% of their last 29 outings.

These sides typically produce 2.80 goals when they meet.

Smorgon has registered 4 games unbeaten in their last 5 outings.

Scoring Trends

Smorgon VS FC Minsk
1.38 Goals Scored 0.75
0.88 Goals Conceded 1
75% Over 1.5 50%
25% Over 2.5 38%
13% Over 3.5 0%

Recent Form & Match History

Smorgon

(Home)
03 Oct
Smorgon
2 : 0
Osipovichi
25 Sept
FK Lida
2 : 1
Smorgon
19 Sept
Smorgon
1 : 0
Niva Dolbizno
12 Sept
SKA-1938 Minsk
0 : 2
Smorgon
06 Sept
Smorgon
1 : 1
Slutsk
Page 1 of 6

FC Minsk

(Away)
10 Oct
FC Minsk
0 : 1
Zhodino
03 Oct
FC Minsk
0 : 0
Arsenal Dzerzhinsk
18 Sept
Belshina
2 : 0
FC Minsk
11 Sept
FC Minsk
1 : 0
Slavia Mozyr
06 Sept
Naftan
0 : 3
FC Minsk
Page 1 of 6

Tournament Bracket & Draw

1/32-finals
Shchuchyn 3
FK Lida 4
TBD -
Zhodino -
BGU Minsk 0
Osipovichi 2
TBD -
Dnepr Mogilev -
Technolog Mogilev 0
FC Slonim 6
TBD -
Isloch Minsk -
Polotsk 0
Uni X Labs 2
TBD -
FK Baranovici -
Bobovnya 0
BumProm Gomel 2
TBD -
Arsenal Dzerzhinsk -
Leskhoz 0
Soligorsk 3
TBD -
Neman -
Drut Belynichi 0
Orsha 7
TBD -
Naftan -
Urozhaynaya 0
Molodechno 3
TBD -
BATE -
Gazovik Vitebsk 1
Volna Pinsk 4
TBD -
Slavia Mozyr -
Stanles Pinsk 1
Krumkachy 4
TBD -
Dynamo Brest -
Neman Mosty 1
Niva Dolbizno 4
TBD -
FC Gomel -
Krechet 0
Ostrovets 8
TBD -
Vitebsk -
Ivatsevichi 1
Slutsk 3
TBD -
Din. Minsk -
Minskoe More 0
SKA-1938 Minsk 3
TBD -
ML Vitebsk -
Viktoria Maryina Gorka 1
Nadezhda Baranovici 0
TBD -
Belshina -
Vertical Kalinkovichi 0
Smorgon 7
TBD -
FC Minsk -
1/16-finals
FK Lida 0
Zhodino 4
Osipovichi 1
Dnepr Mogilev 3
FC Slonim 0
Isloch Minsk 1
Uni X Labs 1
FK Baranovici 4
BumProm Gomel 0
Arsenal Dzerzhinsk 1
Soligorsk 1
Neman 2
Orsha 3
Naftan 2
Molodechno 1
BATE 4
Volna Pinsk 0
Slavia Mozyr 5
Krumkachy 0
Dynamo Brest 5
Niva Dolbizno 2
FC Gomel 3
Ostrovets 2
Vitebsk 3
Slutsk 0
Din. Minsk 2
SKA-1938 Minsk 3
ML Vitebsk 5
Viktoria Maryina Gorka 1
Belshina 8
Smorgon 3
FC Minsk 4
1/8-finals
Zhodino 1
Dnepr Mogilev 2
Isloch Minsk 1
FK Baranovici 2
Arsenal Dzerzhinsk 2
Neman 3
Orsha -
BATE -
Slavia Mozyr 2
Dynamo Brest 1
FC Gomel 1
Vitebsk 2
Din. Minsk -
ML Vitebsk -
Belshina 1
FC Minsk 2
Quarter-finals
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
Semi-finals
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
Final
TBD -
TBD -