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Sodupe vs SD Erandio - H2H Analysis, Preview & Predictions

Spain Spain

Tercera RFEF - Group 4
Sat, Oct 17, 2026
VS
04:00 PM
Our Tip

AI Match Summary

Sodupe host SD Erandio in the Tercera RFEF - Group 4. Little to choose between these two on current form. Recent numbers: Sodupe at 0.97 goals for, 1.34 against; SD Erandio at 0.97 for, 1.62 against. These two haven't met recently, so form does most of the talking. The numbers (1.25 xG vs 1.13) point toward Sodupe. The prediction model leans Draw; both defenses could hold firm.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

50%
Sodupe
20%
Draws
30%
SD Erandio
Draw rate projection: 20% Favored: Sodupe

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

20% / Low Confidence
  • Sodupe and SD Erandio have been evenly matched lately, statistically speaking.
  • 40% chance of a draw — the model doesn't see a clear favorite.
  • Regular Tercera RFEF - Group 4 form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 70%
Over 4.5 Goals 32%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 66.2%
Sodupe Clean Sheet 20%
SD Erandio Clean Sheet 11%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Sodupe SD Erandio
Matches Played 29 29
Wins 7 7
Draws 7 5
Losses 15 17
Goals Scored 0.97 0.97
Goals Conceded 1.34 1.62
Expected Goals (xG) 1.25 1.13
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Sodupe 32 / 100
SD Erandio 28 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Sodupe SD Erandio

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Draw (X)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:2
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

SD Erandio's defensive record shows goals conceded in 72% of 29 matches.

Recent resilience: Sodupe stayed unbeaten in 3 of the last 5 games.

SD Erandio lost 4 of their last 5 games.

Sodupe's goal record stands at 59% scoring rate across 29 recent games.

Scoring Trends

Sodupe VS SD Erandio
1.5 Goals Scored 0.75
1.5 Goals Conceded 1
100% Over 1.5 63%
63% Over 2.5 25%
25% Over 3.5 13%

Recent Form & Match History

Sodupe

(Home)
10 Oct
Sodupe
1 : 0
Touring KE
04 Oct
Alaves C
5 : 1
Sodupe
26 Sept
Sodupe
0 : 3
Aurrera de Vitoria
20 Sept
Amurrio Club
0 : 0
Sodupe
13 Sept
Sodupe
1 : 1
Eibar C
Page 1 of 6

SD Erandio

(Away)
10 Oct
SD Erandio
0 : 2
Alaves C
03 Oct
Aurrera de Vitoria
2 : 1
SD Erandio
26 Sept
SD Erandio
2 : 0
Amurrio Club
19 Sept
Eibar C
3 : 1
SD Erandio
12 Sept
SD Erandio
0 : 1
Real Union B
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Aurrera de Vitoria 6 4 1 1 10:8 13
2 Leioa 6 3 3 0 16:6 12
3 Derio 6 3 3 0 8:3 12
4 Real Sociedad C 6 3 2 1 11:8 11
5 UD Aretxabaleta 6 3 2 1 8:5 11
6 Alaves C 6 3 1 2 13:6 10
7 Pasaia 6 3 1 2 9:10 10
8 San Ignacio 6 2 2 2 10:8 8
9 Touring KE 6 2 2 2 7:6 8
10 Sodupe 6 2 2 2 5:9 8
11 SCD Durango 6 1 4 1 9:9 7
12 Beasain 6 2 1 3 7:8 7
13 Lagun Onak 6 2 1 3 6:9 7
14 SD Erandio 6 2 0 4 6:8 6
15 Santurtzi 6 2 0 4 3:7 6
16 Eibar C 6 1 2 3 9:10 5
17 Real Union B 6 1 2 3 7:12 5
18 Amurrio Club 6 0 1 5 1:13 1
Promotion - Tercera RFEF - Group 4 (Play Offs)