Sport Picks

Stadium Background

Sogdiana vs Termez Surkhon

Uzbekistan Uzbekistan

Super League Sogdiana Sport Complex
Our Tip

Match Events

11' Event
Doriev L.
Assist: Kakhramonov J.
15' Event
Kobilov I.
23'
Mulic F.

AI Match Summary

The Super League game between Sogdiana and Termez Surkhon finished 5-2, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Sogdiana.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

80%
Sogdiana
11%
Draws
9%
Termez Surkhon
Draw rate projection: 11% Favored: Sogdiana

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

93% / Very High Confidence
  • Sogdiana's 2.13 goals per match outpaces what Termez Surkhon have produced (1.25).
  • Win probability leans Sogdiana's way, sitting at 80%.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 98%
Over 1.5 Goals 87.5%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 22%
Over 4.5 Goals 10%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 32%
Sogdiana Clean Sheet 68%
Termez Surkhon Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Sogdiana Termez Surkhon
Matches Played 30 31
Wins 12 12
Draws 3 7
Losses 15 12
Goals Scored 2.13 1.25
Goals Conceded 2.13 1.5
Expected Goals (xG) 2.13 1.25
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 2.13 1.50

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Apr 28, 2026 Super League
Sogdiana vs Termez Surkhon
5:2
Oct 17, 2025 Super League
Sogdiana vs Termez Surkhon
2:1
May 16, 2025 Super League
Termez Surkhon vs Sogdiana
2:1
Nov 1, 2024 Super League
Sogdiana vs Termez Surkhon
2:4
May 31, 2024 Super League
Termez Surkhon vs Sogdiana
1:0

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Sogdiana Compare

Top Goalscorer Doriev L.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Kobilov I.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.64
Avg xA / game 1.06

Termez Surkhon Compare

Top Goalscorer Sherbutaev K.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Chinedu S.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.14
Avg xA / game 0.69

Sokapicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Sogdiana 86 / 100
Termez Surkhon 10 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Sogdiana Termez Surkhon

Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick SOG Win (1)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals & BTTS No
Correct Score 1:0
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

Sokapicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

H2H data points to 4.00 goals as a typical output.

Sogdiana's goal record stands at 73% scoring rate across 30 recent games.

Defensive concern: Termez Surkhon conceded in 65% of 31 recent games.

Sogdiana has registered 3 games unbeaten in their last 5 outings.

Scoring Trends

Sogdiana VS Termez Surkhon
2.13 Goals Scored 1.25
2.13 Goals Conceded 1.5
100% Over 1.5 75%
88% Over 2.5 38%
63% Over 3.5 25%

League Standings

PosTeamPWDLGDPts
1Neftchi Fargona12101127:431
2Pakhtakor1283123:1327
3Navbahor Namangan1262416:1120
4Buxoro1262416:1320
5OKMK1254317:1619
6Bunyodkor1261514:1419
7Lok. Tashkent1253415:1518
8Nasaf Qarshi1245315:1217
9Andijan1251617:1316
10Termez Surkhon1243513:1915
11Din. Samarkand1242619:2214
12Xorazm Urganch123459:1513
13Qizilqum124179:1713
14Sogdiana1233621:2512
15Kokand 19121225510:1611
16Mashal Muborak1210115:213