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Sogdiana vs Qizilqum - H2H Analysis, Preview & Predictions

Uzbekistan Uzbekistan

Super League Sogdiana Sport Complex, Jizzakh
Sogdiana Logo

Sogdiana

2 - 1
FT
Qizilqum Logo

Qizilqum

Our Tip

Match Events

39' Event
Doriev L.
46'
Sub
Ratkovic L. In: Roziev R.
Out: Ratkovic L.
50'
Soyibov N.
Summary Win Prob Goals Form H2H Tactics Players Indices Predictions Timeline Accuracy Compare

AI Match Summary

The Super League game between Sogdiana and Qizilqum finished 2-1, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Sogdiana.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

37%
Sogdiana
15%
Draws
48%
Qizilqum
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: Qizilqum

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

37% / Low Confidence
  • Sogdiana carry the better recent record into this one.
  • 37% chance of a draw — the model doesn't see a clear favorite.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.
  • History favors Sogdiana here — 4 wins from the last 5 head-to-heads.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 75%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 22%
Over 4.5 Goals 10%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 32.8%
Sogdiana Clean Sheet 68%
Qizilqum Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Sogdiana Qizilqum
Matches Played 29 27
Wins 11 10
Draws 4 4
Losses 14 13
Goals Scored 1.59 1.19
Goals Conceded 1.72 1.63
Expected Goals (xG) 1.69 1.31
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Aug 18, 2026 Super League
Sogdiana vs Qizilqum
2:1
Apr 13, 2026 Super League
Qizilqum vs Sogdiana
1:3
Nov 2, 2025 Super League
Sogdiana vs Qizilqum
3:0
Jun 24, 2025 Uzbekistan Cup
Sogdiana vs Qizilqum
4:1
Jun 14, 2025 Super League
Qizilqum vs Sogdiana
0:0

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Sogdiana Compare

Top Goalscorer Doriev L.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Zajmovic D.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.3
Avg xA / game 0.84

Qizilqum Compare

Top Goalscorer Jurakuziev O.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.19
Avg xA / game 0.73

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Sogdiana 41 / 100
Qizilqum 30 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Sogdiana Qizilqum

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Sogdiana Win (1)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 1:0
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Sogdiana scored in 76% of their last 29 games.

Qizilqum's defensive record shows goals conceded in 78% of 27 matches.

Games between these two average 3.00 goals.

Sogdiana has registered 3 games unbeaten in their last 5 outings.

Scoring Trends

Sogdiana VS Qizilqum
2 Goals Scored 1.63
1 Goals Conceded 1.38
75% Over 1.5 75%
63% Over 2.5 63%
38% Over 3.5 38%

Recent Form & Match History

Sogdiana

(Home)
20 Sept
Sogdiana
1 : 2
OKMK
10 Sept
Xorazm Urganch
0 : 0
Sogdiana
05 Sept
Sogdiana
5 : 2
Mashal Muborak
30 Aug
Sogdiana
2 : 0
Jayxun
23 Aug
Neftchi Fargona
3 : 0
Sogdiana
Page 1 of 6

Qizilqum

(Away)
21 Sept
Xorazm Urganch
1 : 3
Qizilqum
10 Sept
Din. Samarkand
1 : 0
Qizilqum
05 Sept
Qizilqum
3 : 2
Buxoro
26 Aug
Qizilqum
1 : 0
Nasaf Qarshi
18 Aug
Sogdiana
2 : 1
Qizilqum
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Neftchi Fargona 23 16 4 3 52:19 52
2 Pakhtakor 23 15 7 1 42:21 52
3 Navbahor Namangan 22 13 5 4 39:21 44
4 Nasaf Qarshi 23 10 7 6 35:22 37
5 Buxoro 23 11 4 8 35:31 37
6 Lok. Tashkent 22 10 5 7 36:28 35
7 OKMK 22 10 5 7 31:29 35
8 Din. Samarkand 23 8 6 9 34:36 30
9 Andijan 23 9 3 11 29:31 30
10 Qizilqum 22 9 2 11 23:30 29
11 Sogdiana 22 8 4 10 38:43 28
12 Termez Surkhon 22 7 5 10 19:28 26
13 Kokand 1912 23 5 8 10 22:30 23
14 Xorazm Urganch 23 5 7 11 20:34 22
15 Bunyodkor 23 7 1 15 23:39 22
16 Mashal Muborak 23 1 1 21 11:47 4
Promotion - AFC Champions League 2027/2028 (League phase)
Promotion - AFC Champions League 2 2027/2028 (Main)
Relegation - Pro Liga (Promotion)
Relegation - Pro Liga 2027 (Main)