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Stadium Background

Sogdiana vs Termez Surkhon

Uzbekistan Uzbekistan

Super League Sogdiana Sport Complex, Jizzakh
Our Tip

Match Events

11' Event
Doriev L.
Assist: Kakhramonov J.
15' Event
Kobilov I.
23'
Mulic F.

AI Match Summary

The Super League game between Sogdiana and Termez Surkhon finished 5-2, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Sogdiana.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

40%
Sogdiana
33%
Draws
27%
Termez Surkhon
Draw rate projection: 33% Favored: Sogdiana

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

70% / Medium Confidence
  • Termez Surkhon carry the better recent record into this one.
  • Win probability leans Sogdiana's way, sitting at 40%.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 99%
Over 1.5 Goals 94%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 22%
Over 4.5 Goals 10%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 34%
Sogdiana Clean Sheet 68%
Termez Surkhon Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Sogdiana Termez Surkhon
Matches Played 30 29
Wins 11 12
Draws 3 5
Losses 16 12
Goals Scored 2.13 1.38
Goals Conceded 2.13 1.63
Expected Goals (xG) 2.13 1.38
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 2.13 1.63

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Apr 28, 2026 Super League
Sogdiana vs Termez Surkhon
5:2
Oct 17, 2025 Super League
Sogdiana vs Termez Surkhon
2:1
May 16, 2025 Super League
Termez Surkhon vs Sogdiana
2:1
Nov 1, 2024 Super League
Sogdiana vs Termez Surkhon
2:4
May 31, 2024 Super League
Termez Surkhon vs Sogdiana
1:0

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Sogdiana Compare

Top Goalscorer Doriev L.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Kobilov I.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.64
Avg xA / game 1.06

Termez Surkhon Compare

Top Goalscorer Sherbutaev K.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Chinedu S.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.25
Avg xA / game 0.77

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Sogdiana 50 / 100
Termez Surkhon 26 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Sogdiana Termez Surkhon

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick SOG Win (1)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals & BTTS No
Correct Score 1:0
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

H2H data points to 4.00 goals as a typical output.

Sogdiana's goal record stands at 73% scoring rate across 30 recent games.

Defensive concern: Termez Surkhon conceded in 69% of 29 recent games.

Sogdiana has registered 3 games unbeaten in their last 5 outings.

Scoring Trends

Sogdiana VS Termez Surkhon
2.13 Goals Scored 1.38
2.13 Goals Conceded 1.63
100% Over 1.5 88%
88% Over 2.5 50%
63% Over 3.5 25%

Recent Form & Match History

Sogdiana

(Home)
21 Jul
Sogdiana
1 : 5
Neftchi Fargona
16 Jul
Sogdiana
2 : 0
Xorazm Urganch
02 May
Buxoro
2 : 1
Sogdiana
28 Apr
Sogdiana
5 : 2
Termez Surkhon
23 Apr
Navbahor Namangan
1 : 1
Sogdiana
Page 1 of 6

Termez Surkhon

(Away)
23 Jul
Termez Surkhon
1 : 2
Din. Samarkand
18 Jul
Andijan
1 : 2
Termez Surkhon
03 May
Termez Surkhon
1 : 1
Pakhtakor
28 Apr
Sogdiana
5 : 2
Termez Surkhon
22 Apr
Termez Surkhon
2 : 1
Mashal Muborak
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

PosTeamPWDLGDPts
1Neftchi Fargona13111132:534
2Pakhtakor1393125:1430
3Buxoro1372417:1323
4OKMK1364321:1722
5Navbahor Namangan1363417:1221
6Lok. Tashkent1354418:1819
7Bunyodkor1361614:1519
8Nasaf Qarshi1346316:1318
9Andijan1352620:1617
10Din. Samarkand1352621:2317
11Termez Surkhon1343614:2115
12Qizilqum1342710:1814
13Xorazm Urganch1334610:1713
14Sogdiana1333722:3012
15Kokand 19121325611:2011
16Mashal Muborak1311116:224
Promotion - AFC Champions League 2027/2028 (League phase)
Promotion - AFC Champions League 2 2027/2028 (Main)
Relegation - Pro Liga (Promotion)
Relegation - Pro Liga 2027 (Main)