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Solomon Islands vs New Caledonia

World World

World Championship 2026 PNG Football Stadium, Port Moresby
Our Tip

Match Events

6' Event
Athale J.
(Penalty)
9' Event
Le'ai R.
39' Event
Wae J.
Assist: Kaua A.

AI Match Summary

The World Championship 2026 game between Solomon Islands and New Caledonia finished 2-3, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward New Caledonia.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

16%
Solomon Islands
30%
Draws
54%
New Caledonia
Draw rate projection: 30% Favored: New Caledonia

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

54% / Medium Confidence
  • New Caledonia's 2.33 goals per match outpaces what Solomon Islands have produced (1.78).
  • 54% — that's where the model lands on New Caledonia taking it.
  • Continental football usually means sharper preparation from both sides.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 56.5%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 19%
Over 4.5 Goals 9%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 30.400000000000002%
Solomon Islands Clean Sheet 15%
New Caledonia Clean Sheet 68%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Solomon Islands New Caledonia
Matches Played 27 18
Wins 11 11
Draws 2 1
Losses 14 6
Goals Scored 1.78 2.33
Goals Conceded 1.85 1.22
Expected Goals (xG) 0.81 1.56
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Nov 14, 2025 Friendly International
Solomon Islands vs New Caledonia
0:0
Nov 14, 2024 World Championship
Solomon Islands vs New Caledonia
2:3
Jun 21, 2024 OFC Nations Cup
New Caledonia vs Solomon Islands
0:0
Dec 1, 2023 Pacific Games
New Caledonia vs Solomon Islands
3:2
Oct 14, 2023 Friendly International
New Caledonia vs Solomon Islands
0:1

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Solomon Islands Compare

Top Goalscorer Le'ai R.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Wae J.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 0.62
Avg xA / game 0.41

New Caledonia Compare

Top Goalscorer Waia G.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.42
Avg xA / game 0.87

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Solomon Islands 11 / 100
New Caledonia 86 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Solomon Islands New Caledonia

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick New Caledonia Win (2)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 0:1
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Attacking prowess: Solomon Islands scored in 74% of their last 27 outings.

New Caledonia's defensive record shows goals conceded in 61% of 18 matches.

These sides typically produce 2.20 goals when they meet.

Recent resilience: Solomon Islands stayed unbeaten in 2 of the last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Solomon Islands VS New Caledonia
1.13 Goals Scored 0.63
2.5 Goals Conceded 0.5
75% Over 1.5 38%
50% Over 2.5 25%
38% Over 3.5 0%

Recent Form & Match History

Solomon Islands

(Home)
18 Sept
Fiji
3 : 3
Solomon Islands
30 Mar
Saint Kitts and Nevis
4 : 2
Solomon Islands
27 Mar
Solomon Islands
2 : 10
Bulgaria
22 Nov
Fiji
1 : 1
Solomon Islands
20 Nov
Vanuatu
2 : 1
Solomon Islands
Page 1 of 6

New Caledonia

(Away)
27 Mar
New Caledonia
0 : 1
Jamaica
08 Oct
Gibraltar
0 : 2
New Caledonia
24 Mar
New Caledonia
0 : 3
New Zealand
21 Mar
New Caledonia
3 : 0
Tahiti
17 Nov
Fiji
1 : 1
New Caledonia
Page 1 of 4

League Standings (Group 1)

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 New Caledonia 3 2 1 0 7:4 7
2 Fiji 3 1 2 0 5:4 5
3 Solomon Islands 3 1 0 2 4:5 3
4 Papua New Guinea 3 0 1 2 5:8 1
Promotion - World Championship 2026 (Third stage)

League Standings (Group 2)

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 New Zealand 3 3 0 0 19:1 9
2 Tahiti 3 2 0 1 5:3 6
3 Vanuatu 3 1 0 2 5:11 3
4 Samoa 3 0 0 3 1:15 0
Promotion - World Championship 2026 (Third stage)