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Solomon Islands W vs Samoa W

Australia & Oceania Australia & Oceania

OFC Nations Cup Women
Our Tip

AI Match Summary

Solomon Islands W play Samoa W in the OFC Nations Cup Women. It looks like a close match. Recently, Solomon Islands W averaged 1.47 goals scored and 2.5 conceded. Samoa W averaged 1.53 goals scored and 2 conceded. In past meetings, Solomon Islands W won 3, Samoa W won 2, and they drew 0. Their last match on Mar 5, 2026 ended 2:1. Our numbers estimate xG of 1.94 for Solomon Islands W and 2.00 for Samoa W. This points to a Samoa W double chance or over markets.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

42%
Solomon Islands W
15%
Draws
43%
Samoa W
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: Samoa W

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

69% / Medium Confidence
  • Solomon Islands W picked up more points recently compared to Samoa W.
  • Model forecasts higher goal threat for the host (1.94 vs 2.00 xG).
  • Past meetings show a clear pattern favoring the visitors.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 67%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 83%
Over 2.5 Goals 67%
Over 3.5 Goals 40%
Over 4.5 Goals 20%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 52%
Solomon Islands W Clean Sheet 10%
Samoa W Clean Sheet 10%
First Half Goal 75%
Second Half Goal 79%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Solomon Islands W Samoa W
Matches Played 32 32
Wins 13 14
Draws 3 3
Losses 16 15
Goals Scored 1.47 1.53
Goals Conceded 2.5 2
Expected Goals (xG) 2.00 1.50
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 2.50 1.88

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Mar 5, 2026 World Cup Women
Samoa W vs Solomon Islands W
2:1
Jul 16, 2025 OFC Nations Cup Women
Solomon Islands W vs Samoa W
2:1
Feb 16, 2024 Olympic Games Women
Solomon Islands W vs Samoa W
2:0
Jul 30, 2022 OFC Nations Cup Women
Samoa W vs Solomon Islands W
1:2
Jul 11, 2015 Pacific Games Women
Samoa W vs Solomon Islands W
2:1

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Solomon Islands W Compare

Top Goalscorer Moffat Pegi I.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.54
Avg xA / game 1

Samoa W Compare

Top Goalscorer Kitiona O.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.36
Avg xA / game 0.83

Sokapicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Solomon Islands W 40 / 100
Samoa W 41 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Solomon Islands W Samoa W

Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Double Chance: Samoa W or Draw (X2)
Secondary Pick Under 3.5 Goals
First Half Result Draw (HT)
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

Value Bet Detector (+EV)

Matches where our model probability exceeds implied bookmaker odds

1X2 Home Win
Value Edge +23.5%
2.94
Goals Over/Under Over 2.5 Goals
Value Edge +9.9%
1.64
*EV represents Expected Value. A positive value edge means the bookmaker has priced the selection significantly below its true statistical likelihood.

Attacking Heatmaps & Shot Locations

Dynamic heat overlays computed from tactical zone entries

Solomon Islands W attacking → ← attacking Samoa W

Sokapicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Solomon Islands W scored in 75% of their last 32 games.

Samoa W let in goals in 69% of their last 32 matches.

Games between these two average 2.80 goals.

Solomon Islands W went unbeaten in 0 of their last 5 games.

Samoa W lost 3 of their last 5 games.

Interactive Team Comparison Slider

Side-by-side comparison of team metrics

42 Points in last 5 45
2.00 Goals expected (xG) 1.50
2.50 Goals conceded expected (xGA) 1.88