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Sousense vs Castro Daire Prediction & H2H Stats

Portugal Portugal

Campeonato de Portugal - Group B
Our Tip

Match Events

73' Event
Marcel

AI Match Summary

The Campeonato de Portugal - Group B game between Sousense and Castro Daire finished 0-1, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Castro Daire.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

16%
Sousense
20%
Draws
64%
Castro Daire
Draw rate projection: 20% Favored: Castro Daire

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

20% / Low Confidence
  • Sousense carry the better recent record into this one.
  • Model puts this one close, with a 40% draw probability.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 38%
Over 3.5 Goals 22%
Over 4.5 Goals 10%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 67%
Sousense Clean Sheet 15%
Castro Daire Clean Sheet 11%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Sousense Castro Daire
Matches Played 30 29
Wins 6 5
Draws 4 7
Losses 20 17
Goals Scored 0.73 0.79
Goals Conceded 1.93 1.28
Expected Goals (xG) 1.25 1.54
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Aug 22, 2026 Campeonato de Portugal - Group B
Sousense vs Castro Daire
0:1

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Sousense Compare

Avg xG / game 0.96
Avg xA / game 0.63

Castro Daire Compare

Top Goalscorer Marcel
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.4
Avg xA / game 0.86

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Sousense 31 / 100
Castro Daire 28 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Sousense Castro Daire

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Draw (X)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 1:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Defensive concern: Castro Daire conceded in 76% of 29 recent games.

Away concern: Castro Daire has suffered 3 losses in 5 recent matches.

Sousense's goal record stands at 53% scoring rate across 30 recent games.

Historical meetings average 1.00 goals per match.

Scoring Trends

Sousense VS Castro Daire
1 Goals Scored 1.25
1.83 Goals Conceded 1.5
83% Over 1.5 75%
50% Over 2.5 50%
17% Over 3.5 38%

Recent Form & Match History

Sousense

(Home)
13 Sept
Sousense
3 : 3
Uniao Lamas
06 Sept
UD Ovarense
2 : 0
Sousense
30 Aug
SC Salgueiros
2 : 1
Sousense
22 Aug
Sousense
0 : 1
Castro Daire
16 Aug
Cinfaes
2 : 0
Sousense
Page 1 of 6

Castro Daire

(Away)
19 Sept
Castro Daire
0 : 1
Portimonense
13 Sept
Beira Mar
1 : 1
Castro Daire
22 Aug
Sousense
0 : 1
Castro Daire
16 Aug
Castro Daire
0 : 2
UD Ovarense
31 Aug
Castro Daire
1 : 2
Anadia
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 UD Ovarense 4 4 0 0 8:0 12
2 Machico 4 2 2 0 5:2 8
3 Camacha 4 2 2 0 6:4 8
4 Florgrade 4 2 1 1 4:2 7
5 SC Salgueiros 4 1 3 0 4:3 6
6 Cinfaes 4 1 2 1 6:5 5
7 Sanjoanense 4 1 2 1 5:5 5
8 Uniao Lamas 4 1 2 1 5:5 5
9 Castro Daire 3 1 1 1 2:3 4
10 Beira Mar 4 0 3 1 4:6 3
11 FC Alpendorada 4 1 0 3 4:7 3
12 Estrela Calheta 3 0 2 1 2:5 2
13 Guarda FC 4 0 1 3 2:5 1
14 Sousense 4 0 1 3 3:8 1
Promotion - Campeonato de Portugal - Group A (Promotion Group)
Relegation - Campeonato de Portugal - Relegation Group 2026/2027 (Main)