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South Africa vs Kenya - H2H Analysis, Preview & Predictions

Africa Africa

Africa Cup of Nations
South Africa Logo

South Africa

Wed, Nov 11, 2026
VS
05:00 PM
Kenya Logo

Kenya

Our Tip
Summary Win Prob Goals Form H2H Tactics Players Indices Predictions Timeline Accuracy Compare

AI Match Summary

A one-off knockout match in the Africa Cup of Nations. This looks like a genuine coin-flip fixture. Recent numbers: South Africa at 1.4 goals for, 0.86 against; Kenya at 1.06 for, 1.39 against. Head-to-head, South Africa have won 2 to Kenya's 0, with 0 draws. They last met on Oct 16, 2012, ending 1:2. Model xG sits at 0.63 vs 1.13, favoring South Africa. AI prediction: Home (1) Win — correct score tipped at 2-1.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

47%
South Africa
30%
Draws
23%
Kenya
Draw rate projection: 30% Favored: South Africa

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

47% / Medium Confidence
  • South Africa carry the better recent record into this one.
  • South Africa are the model's pick here, at 60%.
  • South Africa have the better recent form, but knockout football is a different beast — one bad day ends the campaign.
  • Historical meetings favor South Africa, who have won 1 of the last 2 encounters.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 6.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 3%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 67.8%
South Africa Clean Sheet 20%
Kenya Clean Sheet 20%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric South Africa Kenya
Matches Played 43 33
Wins 19 9
Draws 14 10
Losses 10 14
Goals Scored 1.4 1.06
Goals Conceded 0.86 1.39
Expected Goals (xG) 0.63 1.13
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Oct 16, 2012 Friendly International
Kenya vs South Africa
1:2
Feb 9, 2011 Friendly International
South Africa vs Kenya
2:0

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

South Africa 58 / 100
Kenya 20 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
South Africa Kenya

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick South Africa Win (1)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

South Africa scored in 67% of their last 43 games.

Defensive concern: Kenya conceded in 70% of 33 recent games.

H2H data points to 2.50 goals as a typical output.

Solid form: South Africa remains unbeaten in 4 of 5 recent matches.

Scoring Trends

South Africa VS Kenya
0.63 Goals Scored 1.25
1 Goals Conceded 0.63
63% Over 1.5 63%
13% Over 2.5 38%
0% Over 3.5 13%

Recent Form & Match History

South Africa

(Home)
04 Oct
Egypt
0 : 1
South Africa
30 Sept
Eritrea
0 : 5
South Africa
26 Sept
South Africa
2 : 1
Guinea
28 Jun
South Africa
0 : 1
Canada
25 Jun
South Africa
1 : 0
South Korea
Page 1 of 9

Kenya

(Away)
05 Oct
Rwanda
0 : 0
Kenya
01 Oct
Guinea
1 : 0
Kenya
26 Sept
Kenya
1 : 1
Eritrea
07 Jun
Kenya
4 : 0
Lesotho
04 Jun
Lesotho
1 : 1
Kenya
Page 1 of 7

League Standings (Group 1)

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Morocco 2 2 0 0 4:0 6
2 Gabon 2 1 0 1 2:2 3
3 Niger 2 1 0 1 2:3 3
4 Lesotho 2 0 0 2 1:4 0
Promotion - Africa Cup of Nations (Main)

League Standings (Group 2)

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Egypt 2 1 1 0 5:0 4
2 Angola 2 1 1 0 3:1 4
3 Malawi 2 1 0 1 3:4 3
4 South Sudan 2 0 0 2 1:7 0
Promotion - Africa Cup of Nations (Main)

League Standings (Group 3)

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Ivory Coast 2 2 0 0 4:0 6
2 Gambia 2 2 0 0 6:3 6
3 Somalia 2 0 0 2 1:4 0
4 Ghana 2 0 0 2 2:6 0
Promotion - Africa Cup of Nations (Main)

League Standings (Group 4)

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 South Africa 2 2 0 0 7:1 6
2 Guinea 2 1 0 1 2:2 3
3 Eritrea 2 0 1 1 1:6 1
4 Kenya 2 0 1 1 1:2 1
Promotion - Africa Cup of Nations (Main)

League Standings (Group 5)

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 D.R. Congo 2 2 0 0 4:1 6
2 Zimbabwe 2 1 0 1 4:4 3
3 Equatorial Guinea 2 1 0 1 1:2 3
4 Sierra Leone 2 0 0 2 2:4 0
Promotion - Africa Cup of Nations (Main)

League Standings (Group 6)

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Benin 2 1 1 0 3:2 4
2 Burkina Faso 2 1 1 0 2:1 4
3 Mauritania 2 1 0 1 4:3 3
4 Central Africa 2 0 0 2 1:4 0
Promotion - Africa Cup of Nations (Main)

League Standings (Group 7)

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Cameroon 2 1 1 0 4:2 4
2 Comoros 2 1 0 1 2:3 3
3 Namibia 2 1 0 1 1:1 3
4 Congo 2 0 1 1 1:2 1
Promotion - Africa Cup of Nations (Main)

League Standings (Group 8)

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Uganda 2 1 1 0 2:1 4
2 Botswana 2 0 2 0 4:4 2
3 Tunisia 2 0 2 0 3:3 2
4 Libya 2 0 1 1 2:3 1
Promotion - Africa Cup of Nations (Main)

League Standings (Group 9)

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Algeria 2 1 1 0 5:3 4
2 Zambia 2 1 0 1 3:3 3
3 Togo 2 1 0 1 1:2 3
4 Burundi 2 0 1 1 2:3 1
Promotion - Africa Cup of Nations (Main)

League Standings (Group 10)

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Senegal 2 1 1 0 2:1 4
2 Mozambique 2 1 1 0 5:2 4
3 Sudan 2 1 0 1 2:4 3
4 Ethiopia 2 0 0 2 0:2 0
Promotion - Africa Cup of Nations (Main)

League Standings (Group 11)

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Rwanda 2 2 0 0 5:2 6
2 Mali 2 2 0 0 4:1 6
3 Cape Verde 2 0 0 2 2:5 0
4 Liberia 2 0 0 2 1:4 0
Promotion - Africa Cup of Nations (Main)

League Standings (Group 12)

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Guinea Bissau 2 2 0 0 5:0 6
2 Nigeria 2 1 0 1 2:4 3
3 Tanzania 2 0 1 1 1:3 1
4 Madagascar 2 0 1 1 2:3 1
Promotion - Africa Cup of Nations (Main)