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South Africa W vs Madagascar W - H2H Analysis, Preview & Predictions

World World

Olympic Games Women
Tue, Oct 13, 2026
VS
04:00 PM
Our Tip

AI Match Summary

The first leg ended 0-4. The second leg of this knockout tie follows. History leans heavily one way in this fixture. South Africa W have averaged 2.72 scored and 0.75 conceded recently, against Madagascar W's 1.3 scored and 1.35 conceded. Past meetings favor South Africa W slightly — 4-0-0 in wins/losses/draws. They last met on Oct 9, 2026, ending 0:4. xG projections (1.27 - 0.81) back South Africa W to edge this. Home (1) are the model's selection here, or BTTS: GG.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

47%
South Africa W
20%
Draws
33%
Madagascar W
Draw rate projection: 20% Favored: South Africa W

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

47% / Medium Confidence
  • South Africa W have won more games recently than Madagascar W.
  • Model gives South Africa W a 47% chance of winning this.
  • South Africa W have the better recent form, but knockout football is a different beast — one bad day ends the campaign.
  • Historical meetings favor South Africa W, who have won 3 of the last 4 encounters.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).
  • These two have met 4 times recently and South Africa W have taken 4 of them.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 15%
Over 4.5 Goals 7%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 67%
South Africa W Clean Sheet 20%
Madagascar W Clean Sheet 11%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric South Africa W Madagascar W
Matches Played 36 20
Wins 26 7
Draws 4 3
Losses 6 10
Goals Scored 2.72 1.3
Goals Conceded 0.75 1.35
Expected Goals (xG) 1.27 0.81
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Oct 9, 2026 Olympic Games Women
Madagascar W vs South Africa W
0:4
Oct 7, 2023 COSAFA Cup Women
South Africa W vs Madagascar W
3:1
Aug 5, 2019 COSAFA Cup Women
South Africa W vs Madagascar W
3:0
Sep 12, 2018 COSAFA Cup Women
South Africa W vs Madagascar W
2:1

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

South Africa W 85 / 100
Madagascar W 10 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
South Africa W Madagascar W

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick South Africa W Win (1)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Attacking prowess: South Africa W scored in 97% of their last 36 outings.

These sides typically produce 3.50 goals when they meet.

Madagascar W let in goals in 65% of their last 20 matches.

Recent resilience: South Africa W stayed unbeaten in 4 of the last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

South Africa W VS Madagascar W
1.38 Goals Scored 0.5
1.13 Goals Conceded 1.17
88% Over 1.5 50%
38% Over 2.5 17%
13% Over 3.5 17%

Recent Form & Match History

South Africa W

(Home)
09 Oct
Madagascar W
0 : 4
South Africa W
13 Aug
South Africa W
2 : 1
Nigeria W
08 Aug
Morocco W
2 : 1
South Africa W
04 Aug
Burkina Faso W
0 : 1
South Africa W
31 Jul
South Africa W
2 : 2
Ivory Coast W
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Madagascar W

(Away)
09 Oct
Madagascar W
0 : 4
South Africa W
09 Jun
Madagascar W
1 : 0
South Sudan W
06 Jun
South Sudan W
1 : 1
Madagascar W
25 Feb
Mozambique W
2 : 0
Madagascar W
23 Feb
Namibia W
0 : 1
Madagascar W
Page 1 of 4

Tournament Bracket & Draw

1/16-finals
Tunisia W -
TBD -
TBD -
Senegal W -
Benin W -
TBD -
TBD -
Mali W -
Congo W -
TBD -
TBD -
Morocco W -
Sudan W 0
Comoros W 30
TBD -
Nigeria W -
Guinea W -
TBD -
TBD -
Cameroon W -
D.R. Congo W -
TBD -
TBD -
Ivory Coast W -
Central Africa W -
TBD -
TBD -
Algeria W -
Burkina Faso W -
TBD -
TBD -
Equatorial Guinea W -
Rwanda W -
TBD -
TBD -
Ethiopia W -
Botswana W -
TBD -
TBD -
Tanzania W -
Angola W -
TBD -
TBD -
Namibia W -
South Sudan W 1
Madagascar W 2
TBD -
South Africa W -
Seychelles W -
TBD -
TBD -
Kenya W -
Malawi W -
TBD -
TBD -
Zimbabwe W -
Uganda W -
TBD -
TBD -
Zambia W -
Mauritius W 3
Djibouti W 1
TBD -
Ghana W -
1/8-finals
Tunisia W 0
Senegal W 1
Benin W 3
Mali W 1
Congo W -
Morocco W -
Comoros W 0
Nigeria W 2
Guinea W -
Cameroon W -
D.R. Congo W 1
Ivory Coast W 4
Central Africa W 0
Algeria W 8
Burkina Faso W 3
Equatorial Guinea W 1
Rwanda W 0
Ethiopia W 1
Botswana W 0
Tanzania W 1
Angola W 0
Namibia W 0
Madagascar W 0
South Africa W 4
Seychelles W 0
Kenya W 11
Malawi W 2
Zimbabwe W 0
Uganda W 2
Zambia W 1
Mauritius W 0
Ghana W 3
Quarter-finals
TBD -
TBD -
Morocco W -
TBD -
Cameroon W -
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
Semi-finals
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
Final
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -