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South Hobart vs Launceston City

Australia Australia

NPL Tasmania 2025 Darcy Street
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AI Match Summary

South Hobart play Launceston City in the NPL Tasmania 2025. It looks like a close match. Recently, South Hobart averaged 3.07 goals scored and 1.47 conceded. Launceston City averaged 3.59 goals scored and 1.38 conceded. In past meetings, South Hobart won 3, Launceston City won 1, and they drew 1. Their last match on May 9, 2026 ended 1:8. Our numbers estimate xG of 3.06 for South Hobart and 1.88 for Launceston City. This points to a Launceston City double chance or over markets.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

41%
South Hobart
15%
Draws
44%
Launceston City
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: Launceston City

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

70% / Medium Confidence
  • South Hobart picked up more points recently compared to Launceston City.
  • Model forecasts higher goal threat for the host (3.06 vs 1.88 xG).
  • Past meetings show a clear pattern favoring the visitors.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 86%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 90%
Over 1.5 Goals 97%
Over 2.5 Goals 86%
Over 3.5 Goals 52%
Over 4.5 Goals 26%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 77%
South Hobart Clean Sheet 10%
Launceston City Clean Sheet 10%
First Half Goal 87%
Second Half Goal 92%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric South Hobart Launceston City
Matches Played 30 29
Wins 18 22
Draws 4 1
Losses 8 6
Goals Scored 3.07 3.59
Goals Conceded 1.47 1.38
Expected Goals (xG) 4.00 2.88
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 0.88 2.13

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

May 9, 2026 NPL Tasmania
Launceston City vs South Hobart
1:8
Aug 9, 2025 NPL Tasmania
South Hobart vs Launceston City
1:3
Jun 14, 2025 NPL Tasmania
Launceston City vs South Hobart
1:2
Apr 6, 2025 NPL Tasmania
South Hobart vs Launceston City
2:2
Sep 7, 2024 NPL Tasmania
South Hobart vs Launceston City
2:1

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

South Hobart Compare

Top Goalscorer Wright E.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 3.08
Avg xA / game 2

Launceston City Compare

Top Goalscorer Swaby T.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Simeoni T.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 2.62
Avg xA / game 1.6

Sokapicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

South Hobart 39 / 100
Launceston City 42 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
South Hobart Launceston City

Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Double Chance: Launceston City or Draw (X2)
Secondary Pick Under 3.5 Goals
First Half Result Draw (HT)
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

Value Bet Detector (+EV)

Matches where our model probability exceeds implied bookmaker odds

1X2 Home Win
Value Edge +24.2%
3.03
Goals Over/Under Over 2.5 Goals
Value Edge +7.5%
1.25
*EV represents Expected Value. A positive value edge means the bookmaker has priced the selection significantly below its true statistical likelihood.

Attacking Heatmaps & Shot Locations

Dynamic heat overlays computed from tactical zone entries

South Hobart attacking → ← attacking Launceston City

Sokapicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

South Hobart scored in 90% of their last 30 games.

Launceston City let in goals in 79% of their last 29 matches.

Games between these two average 4.60 goals.

South Hobart went unbeaten in 4 of their last 5 games.

Launceston City lost 2 of their last 5 games.

Interactive Team Comparison Slider

Side-by-side comparison of team metrics

58 Points in last 5 67
4.00 Goals expected (xG) 2.88
0.88 Goals conceded expected (xGA) 2.13