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South Korea U23 vs China U23 - H2H Analysis, Preview & Predictions

Asia Asia

Asian Games Yanmar Stadium Nagai, Osaka
South Korea U23 Logo

South Korea U23

2 - 1
FT
China U23 Logo

China U23

Our Tip

Match Events

18'
Xu Bin
23' Event
Wang Y.
Assist: Mao W.
33' Event
Lee Young-Jun
Assist: Eom Ji-Sung
Summary Win Prob Goals Form H2H Tactics Players Indices Predictions Timeline Accuracy Compare

AI Match Summary

First leg ended 2-1. This leg finished 2-1.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

43%
South Korea U23
30%
Draws
27%
China U23
Draw rate projection: 30% Favored: South Korea U23

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

43% / Low Confidence
  • China U23 haven't matched South Korea U23's recent run of results.
  • South Korea U23 are the model's pick here, at 70%.
  • South Korea U23 have the better recent form, but knockout football is a different beast — one bad day ends the campaign.
  • Historical meetings favor South Korea U23, who have won 1 of the last 5 encounters.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).
  • These two have met 5 times recently and South Korea U23 have taken 4 of them.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 25%
Over 4.5 Goals 11%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 26.8%
South Korea U23 Clean Sheet 68%
China U23 Clean Sheet 13%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric South Korea U23 China U23
Matches Played 32 30
Wins 19 17
Draws 4 8
Losses 9 5
Goals Scored 1.88 1.53
Goals Conceded 1.16 0.7
Expected Goals (xG) 1.13 1.38
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Sep 30, 2026 Asian Games
South Korea U23 vs China U23
2:1
Apr 19, 2024 AFC Asian Cup U23
China U23 vs South Korea U23
0:2
Oct 1, 2023 Asian Games
China U23 vs South Korea U23
0:2
Jun 19, 2023 Friendly International
China U23 vs South Korea U23
1:0
Jun 15, 2023 Friendly International
China U23 vs South Korea U23
1:3

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

South Korea U23 Compare

Top Goalscorer Lee Young-Jun
1 Goals
Assists Leader Bae Jun-Ho
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 0.87
Avg xA / game 0.56

China U23 Compare

Top Goalscorer Wang Y.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.25
Avg xA / game 0.77

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

South Korea U23 77 / 100
China U23 14 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
South Korea U23 China U23

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick South Korea U23 Win (1)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 3:0
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

South Korea U23 went unbeaten in 5 of their last 5 games.

South Korea U23 scored in 75% of their last 32 games.

Games between these two average 2.40 goals.

Defensive concern: China U23 conceded in 43% of 30 recent games.

Scoring Trends

South Korea U23 VS China U23
2.13 Goals Scored 1.5
1.25 Goals Conceded 0.13
88% Over 1.5 50%
63% Over 2.5 38%
50% Over 3.5 0%

Recent Form & Match History

South Korea U23

(Home)
06 Oct
Australia U23
2 : 2
South Korea U23
03 Oct
South Korea U23
1 : 0
Japan U23
03 Oct
Australia U23
1 : 2
South Korea U23
30 Sept
South Korea U23
2 : 1
China U23
25 Sept
South Korea U23
4 : 0
Vietnam U23
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China U23

(Away)
03 Oct
China U23
3 : 2
Uzbekistan U23
30 Sept
South Korea U23
2 : 1
China U23
26 Sept
China U23
3 : 0
Thailand U23
23 Sept
China U23
0 : 0
United Arab Emirates U23
20 Sept
Iran U23
0 : 0
China U23
Page 1 of 6

Tournament Bracket & Draw

Quarter-finals
South Korea U23 4
Vietnam U23 0
China U23 3
Thailand U23 0
Uzbekistan U23 3
Saudi Arabia U23 0
Japan U23 1
North Korea U23 0
Semi-finals
South Korea U23 2
China U23 1
Uzbekistan U23 1
Japan U23 2
Final
South Korea U23 1
Japan U23 0
China U23 3
Uzbekistan U23 2