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Stadium Background

South Korea U23 vs Japan U23 - H2H Analysis, Preview & Predictions

Asia Asia

Asian Games Toyota Stadium, Toyota City
South Korea U23 Logo

South Korea U23

1 - 0
FT
Japan U23 Logo

Japan U23

Our Tip

Match Events

28'
Sub
Nwadike B. In: Fukunaga Y.
Out: Nwadike B.
29'
Lee Gi-Hyuk
57'
Sub
Lee Gi-Hyuk In: Hwang Do-Yun
Out: Lee Gi-Hyuk
Summary Win Prob Goals Form H2H Tactics Players Indices Predictions Timeline Accuracy Compare

AI Match Summary

First leg ended 1-0. The second leg ended 1-0.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

44%
South Korea U23
15%
Draws
41%
Japan U23
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: South Korea U23

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

41% / Low Confidence
  • Japan U23 carry the better recent record into this one.
  • Model puts this one close, with a 39% draw probability.
  • Japan U23 arrive in better shape, but cup ties don't always follow form.
  • Historical meetings favor South Korea U23, who have won 2 of the last 5 encounters.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 69%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 22%
Over 4.5 Goals 10%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 25.6%
South Korea U23 Clean Sheet 10%
Japan U23 Clean Sheet 68%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric South Korea U23 Japan U23
Matches Played 30 30
Wins 17 24
Draws 4 3
Losses 9 3
Goals Scored 1.73 2.27
Goals Conceded 1.13 0.47
Expected Goals (xG) 0.94 2.13
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Oct 3, 2026 Asian Games
South Korea U23 vs Japan U23
1:0
Jan 20, 2026 AFC Asian Cup U23
Japan U23 vs South Korea U23
1:0
Apr 22, 2024 AFC Asian Cup U23
Japan U23 vs South Korea U23
0:1
Oct 7, 2023 Asian Games
South Korea U23 vs Japan U23
2:1
Jun 12, 2022 AFC Asian Cup U23
South Korea U23 vs Japan U23
0:3

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

South Korea U23 Compare

Top Goalscorer Eom Ji-Sung
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 0.72
Avg xA / game 0.47

Japan U23 Compare

Avg xG / game 1.94
Avg xA / game 1.18

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

South Korea U23 30 / 100
Japan U23 41 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
South Korea U23 Japan U23

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Japan U23 Win (2)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 0:1
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

South Korea U23 went unbeaten in 5 of their last 5 games.

South Korea U23 scored in 73% of their last 30 games.

Games between these two average 1.80 goals.

Japan U23's defensive record shows goals conceded in 37% of 30 matches.

Scoring Trends

South Korea U23 VS Japan U23
1.63 Goals Scored 2.5
1.75 Goals Conceded 0.25
75% Over 1.5 63%
63% Over 2.5 50%
50% Over 3.5 25%

Recent Form & Match History

South Korea U23

(Home)
06 Oct
Australia U23
2 : 2
South Korea U23
03 Oct
South Korea U23
1 : 0
Japan U23
03 Oct
Australia U23
1 : 2
South Korea U23
30 Sept
South Korea U23
2 : 1
China U23
25 Sept
South Korea U23
4 : 0
Vietnam U23
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Japan U23

(Away)
03 Oct
South Korea U23
1 : 0
Japan U23
30 Sept
Uzbekistan U23
1 : 2
Japan U23
26 Sept
Japan U23
1 : 0
North Korea U23
23 Sept
Japan U23
3 : 0
Thailand U23
20 Sept
Kyrgyzstan U23
0 : 7
Japan U23
Page 1 of 6

Tournament Bracket & Draw

Quarter-finals
South Korea U23 4
Vietnam U23 0
China U23 3
Thailand U23 0
Uzbekistan U23 3
Saudi Arabia U23 0
Japan U23 1
North Korea U23 0
Semi-finals
South Korea U23 2
China U23 1
Uzbekistan U23 1
Japan U23 2
Final
South Korea U23 1
Japan U23 0
China U23 3
Uzbekistan U23 2