Sport Picks

Stadium Background

South Korea vs Japan

Asia Asia

EAFF E-1 Football Championship Yongin Mireu Stadium
Our Tip

AI Match Summary

South Korea play Japan in the EAFF E-1 Football Championship. It looks like a close match. Recently, South Korea averaged 1.84 goals scored and 0.77 conceded. Japan averaged 2.48 goals scored and 0.52 conceded. In past meetings, South Korea won 2, Japan won 3, and they drew 0. Their last match on Jul 15, 2025 ended 0:1. Our numbers estimate xG of 1.06 for South Korea and 1.44 for Japan. This points to a Japan double chance or over markets.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

40%
South Korea
15%
Draws
45%
Japan
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: Japan

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

71% / Medium Confidence
  • South Korea picked up more points recently compared to Japan.
  • Model forecasts higher goal threat for the host (1.06 vs 1.44 xG).
  • Past meetings show a clear pattern favoring the visitors.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 91%
Over 1.5 Goals 73%
Over 2.5 Goals 48%
Over 3.5 Goals 29%
Over 4.5 Goals 14%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 28%
South Korea Clean Sheet 16%
Japan Clean Sheet 14%
First Half Goal 66%
Second Half Goal 69%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric South Korea Japan
Matches Played 31 31
Wins 19 22
Draws 6 6
Losses 6 3
Goals Scored 1.84 2.48
Goals Conceded 0.77 0.52
Expected Goals (xG) 1.63 2.13
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 0.75 0.50

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Jul 15, 2025 EAFF E-1 Football Championship
South Korea vs Japan
0:1
Jul 27, 2022 EAFF E-1 Football Championship
Japan vs South Korea
3:0
Mar 25, 2021 Friendly International
Japan vs South Korea
3:0
Dec 18, 2019 EAFF E-1 Football Championship
South Korea vs Japan
1:0
Dec 16, 2017 EAFF E-1 Football Championship
Japan vs South Korea
1:4

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

South Korea Compare

Avg xG / game 1.25
Avg xA / game 0.81

Japan Compare

Top Goalscorer Germain R.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.94
Avg xA / game 1.18

Sokapicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

South Korea 39 / 100
Japan 43 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
South Korea Japan

Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Double Chance: Japan or Draw (X2)
Secondary Pick Under 3.5 Goals
First Half Result Draw (HT)
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

Value Bet Detector (+EV)

Matches where our model probability exceeds implied bookmaker odds

1X2 Home Win
Value Edge +25.2%
3.13
Goals Over/Under Over 2.5 Goals
Value Edge +14.2%
2.38
*EV represents Expected Value. A positive value edge means the bookmaker has priced the selection significantly below its true statistical likelihood.

Attacking Heatmaps & Shot Locations

Dynamic heat overlays computed from tactical zone entries

South Korea attacking → ← attacking Japan

Sokapicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

South Korea scored in 77% of their last 31 games.

Japan let in goals in 35% of their last 31 matches.

Games between these two average 2.60 goals.

South Korea went unbeaten in 3 of their last 5 games.

Japan lost 1 of their last 5 games.

Interactive Team Comparison Slider

Side-by-side comparison of team metrics

63 Points in last 5 72
1.63 Goals expected (xG) 2.13
0.75 Goals conceded expected (xGA) 0.50