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South Melbourne vs South Island United

Australia & Oceania Australia & Oceania

OFC Pro League
Our Tip

Match Events

21' Event
Giannakopoulos T.
Own Goal
25' Event
Uchida Y.
33' Event
Jankovic M.

AI Match Summary

The OFC Pro League game between South Melbourne and South Island United finished 4-1, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward South Melbourne.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

90%
South Melbourne
6%
Draws
4%
South Island United
Draw rate projection: 6% Favored: South Melbourne

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

95% / Very High Confidence
  • Look at the last few games and South Melbourne come out ahead of South Island United on wins alone.
  • Win probability leans South Melbourne's way, sitting at 90%.
  • Regular OFC Pro League form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).
  • History favors South Melbourne here — 2 wins from the last 3 head-to-heads.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 56.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 25%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 75.8%
South Melbourne Clean Sheet 13%
South Island United Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric South Melbourne South Island United
Matches Played 31 18
Wins 15 6
Draws 4 5
Losses 12 7
Goals Scored 2 1.25
Goals Conceded 2.13 2.5
Expected Goals (xG) 2.00 1.25
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 2.13 2.50

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

May 9, 2026 OFC Pro League
South Melbourne vs South Island United
4:2
Feb 27, 2026 OFC Pro League
South Melbourne vs South Island United
4:1
Feb 1, 2026 OFC Pro League
South Island United vs South Melbourne
3:3

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

South Melbourne Compare

Top Goalscorer Uchida Y.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Jankovic M.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.54
Avg xA / game 1

South Island United Compare

Avg xG / game 1.14
Avg xA / game 0.69

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

South Melbourne 84 / 100
South Island United 10 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
South Melbourne South Island United

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick SOU Win (1)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals & BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Defensive concern: South Island United conceded in 83% of 18 recent games.

H2H data points to 5.67 goals as a typical output.

South Melbourne found the back of the net in 77% of recent matches (31 games).

South Melbourne has registered 4 games unbeaten in their last 5 outings.

Scoring Trends

South Melbourne VS South Island United
2 Goals Scored 1.25
2.13 Goals Conceded 2.5
100% Over 1.5 50%
100% Over 2.5 50%
63% Over 3.5 50%

Recent Form & Match History

South Melbourne

(Home)
18 Jul
South Melbourne
0 : 0
Preston Lions
10 Jul
Dandenong City SC
0 : 2
South Melbourne
05 Jul
South Melbourne
1 : 0
Dandenong Thunder
28 Jun
South Melbourne
1 : 2
Green Gully
19 Jun
Bentleigh Greens
1 : 5
South Melbourne
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South Island United

(Away)
20 May
Auckland FC 2
1 : 0
South Island United
12 May
Auckland FC 2
5 : 2
South Island United
09 May
South Melbourne
4 : 2
South Island United
06 May
Bula
0 : 1
South Island United
21 Apr
South Island United
1 : 3
Auckland FC 2
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League Standings

PosTeamPWDLGDPts
1Auckland FC 214102226:1032
2South Melbourne1474340:1825
3Bula1463514:1521
4South Island United1455424:2620
5Solomon Kings1453614:2118
6Tahiti United1445520:2817
7Vanuatu United1434720:2513
8PNG Hekari14221014:298
Promotion - OFC Pro League (Winners stage)
Relegation - OFC Pro League (Losers stage)