Sport Picks

England

FA Cup St. Mary's Stadium, Southampton

Southampton

2 - 1

Arsenal

Our Tip

Match Events

27'

Manning R.

35'

Stewart R.

Assist: Bree J.

60'

Sub

Gabriel Jesus In: Gyökeres V.

Out: Gabriel Jesus

Summary Win Prob Goals Form H2H Tactics Players Indices Predictions Timeline Accuracy Compare

AI Match Summary

This match ends 2-1, with Southampton advancing. Cup football at its most decisive.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

40%

Southampton

33%

Draws

27%

Arsenal

Draw rate projection: 33% Favored: Southampton

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

70% / Medium Confidence

Southampton's 1.63 goals per match outpaces what Arsenal have produced (1.38).
40% — that's where the model lands on Southampton taking it.
Both sides arrive with similar form. In a knockout tie, that makes this genuinely unpredictable.
Historical meetings favor Arsenal, who have won 1 of the last 5 encounters.
High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%

Over 1.5 Goals 82%

Over 2.5 Goals 78%

Over 3.5 Goals 25%

Over 4.5 Goals 11%

Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 75%

Southampton Clean Sheet 19%

Arsenal Clean Sheet 14%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric	Southampton	Arsenal
Matches Played	28	30
Wins	20	20
Draws	6	5
Losses	2	5
Goals Scored	1.63	1.38
Goals Conceded	1.13	0.5
Expected Goals (xG)	1.63	1.38
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA)	1.13	0.50

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Apr 4, 2026 FA Cup

Southampton vs Arsenal

2:1

May 25, 2025 Premier League

Southampton vs Arsenal

1:2

Oct 5, 2024 Premier League

Arsenal vs Southampton

3:1

Apr 21, 2023 Premier League

Arsenal vs Southampton

3:3

Oct 23, 2022 Premier League

Southampton vs Arsenal

1:1

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Southampton Compare

Top Goalscorer Stewart R.

1 Goals

Assists Leader Charles S.

1 Ast

Avg xG / game 1.25

Avg xA / game 0.81

Arsenal Compare

Top Goalscorer Gyökeres V.

1 Goals

Avg xG / game 1.25

Avg xA / game 0.77

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Southampton 40 / 100

Arsenal 27 / 100

How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

Southampton Arsenal

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick SOU Win (1)

Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals & BTTS Yes

Correct Score 2:1

BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)

Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Southampton scored in 96% of their last 28 games.

Historical meetings average 3.60 goals per match.

Solid form: Southampton remains unbeaten in 5 of 5 recent matches.

Arsenal has conceded goals in 53% of their last 30 outings.

Scoring Trends

Southampton VS Arsenal

1.63 Goals Scored 1.38

1.13 Goals Conceded 0.5

75% Over 1.5 50%

75% Over 2.5 38%

50% Over 3.5 0%

Recent Form & Match History

Southampton

(Home)

24 Jul

Braunschweig

0 : 1

Southampton

18 Jul

Eastleigh

1 : 3

Southampton

12 May

Southampton

2 : 1

Middlesbrough

09 May

Middlesbrough

0 : 0

Southampton

02 May

Preston

1 : 3

Southampton

Page 1 of 6

Arsenal

(Away)

30 May

PSG

2 : 1

Arsenal

24 May

Crystal Palace

1 : 2

Arsenal

18 May

Arsenal

1 : 0

Burnley

10 May

West Ham

0 : 1

Arsenal

05 May

Arsenal

1 : 0

Atl. Madrid

Page 1 of 6

Tournament Bracket & Draw

Scroll horizontally to view stages →

1/128-finals

Wrexham-

TBD-

Nottingham-

Ipswich-

TBD-

Blackpool1

Scunthorpe0

Reading2

Carlisle3

Hull City-

TBD-

Blackburn-

Charlton-

TBD-

Chelsea-

Port Vale5

Maldon & Tiptree1

Bromley1

Bristol Rovers2

Fleetwood Town2

Barnet1

Luton4

Forest Green3

Bristol City-

TBD-

Watford-

Colchester2

Milton Keynes Dons3

Oldham3

Northampton1

TBD-

Oxford Utd-

Everton-

TBD-

Sunderland-

Boreham Wood3

Crawley Town0

Newport3

Gillingham2

Brackley3

Notts County2

Burton6

St. Albans0

West Ham-

TBD-

QPR-

Slough Town2

Altrincham1

Macclesfield6

AFC Totton3

TBD-

Crystal Palace-

Sheffield Wed-

TBD-

Brentford-

Tranmere1

Stockport County3

Cambridge Utd3

Chester0

TBD-

Birmingham-

Derby-

TBD-

Leeds-

Norwich-

TBD-

AFC Wimbledon0

Gateshead2

Eastleigh0

Walsall3

Swansea-

TBD-

West Brom-

Tottenham-

TBD-

Aston Villa-

Newcastle Utd-

TBD-

Bournemouth-

Manchester City-

TBD-

Halifax0

Exeter2

Wycombe2

Plymouth0

Salford2

Lincoln City1

Tamworth0

Leyton Orient1

Rotherham1

Swindon2

Bolton2

Huddersfield1

Grimsby3

Ebbsfleet1

Wealdstone1

Southend0

Chelmsford4

Braintree1

Weston-super-Mare2

Aldershot1

Wolves-

TBD-

Sutton2

Telford1

South Shields1

Shrewsbury3

Liverpool-

TBD-

Peterborough1

Cardiff0

Barnsley3

York City2

Manchester United-

TBD-

Brighton-

Stoke City-

TBD-

Coventry-

Fulham-

TBD-

Middlesbrough-

Stevenage0

Chesterfield1

Crewe1

Doncaster2

TBD-

Southampton-

Cheltenham1

Bradford City0

Buxton2

Chatham1

TBD-

Leicester-

Burnley-

TBD-

Millwall-

Sheffield Utd-

TBD-

Gainsborough1

Accrington2

Mansfield3

Harrogate2

Portsmouth-

TBD-

Arsenal-

Preston-

TBD-

Wigan2

Hemel Hempstead1

Spennymoor0

Barrow2

1/64-finals

Wrexham-

TBD-

Nottingham-

Ipswich-

TBD-

Blackpool4

Carlisle1

Hull City-

TBD-

Blackburn-

Charlton-

TBD-

Chelsea-

Port Vale1

Bristol Rovers0

Fleetwood Town3

Luton2

Bristol City-

TBD-

Watford-

Milton Keynes Dons3

Oldham1

TBD-

Oxford Utd-

Everton-

TBD-

Sunderland-

Boreham Wood3

Newport0

Brackley1

Burton3

West Ham-

TBD-

QPR-

Slough Town1

Macclesfield3

TBD-

Crystal Palace-

Sheffield Wed-

TBD-

Brentford-

Stockport County0

Cambridge Utd1

TBD-

Birmingham-

Derby-

TBD-

Leeds-

Norwich-

TBD-

Gateshead0

Walsall2

Swansea-

TBD-

West Brom-

Tottenham-

TBD-

Aston Villa-

Newcastle Utd-

TBD-

Bournemouth-

Manchester City-

TBD-

Exeter4

Wycombe0

Salford4

Leyton Orient0

Swindon4

Bolton0

Grimsby4

Wealdstone0

Chelmsford0

Weston-super-Mare2

Wolves-

TBD-

Sutton1

Shrewsbury2

Liverpool-

TBD-

Peterborough0

Barnsley1

Manchester United-

TBD-

Brighton-

Stoke City-

TBD-

Coventry-

Fulham-

TBD-

Middlesbrough-

Chesterfield1

Doncaster2

TBD-

Southampton-

Cheltenham6

Buxton2

TBD-

Leicester-

Burnley-

TBD-

Millwall-

Sheffield Utd-

TBD-

Accrington2

Mansfield3

Portsmouth-

TBD-

Arsenal-

Preston-

TBD-

Wigan3

Barrow2

1/32-finals

Wrexham4

Nottingham3

Ipswich2

Blackpool1

Hull City1

Blackburn0

Charlton1

Chelsea5

Port Vale1

Fleetwood Town0

Bristol City5

Watford1

Milton Keynes Dons1

Oxford Utd2

Everton1

Sunderland2

Boreham Wood0

Burton5

West Ham2

QPR1

Macclesfield2

Crystal Palace1

Sheffield Wed0

Brentford2

Cambridge Utd2

Birmingham3

Derby1

Leeds3

Norwich5

Walsall1

Swansea2

West Brom3

Tottenham1

Aston Villa2

Newcastle Utd4

Bournemouth3

Manchester City10

Exeter1

Salford3

Swindon2

Grimsby3

Weston-super-Mare2

Wolves6

Shrewsbury1

Liverpool4

Barnsley1

Manchester United1

Brighton2

Stoke City1

Coventry0

Fulham3

Middlesbrough1

Doncaster2

Southampton3

Cheltenham0

Leicester2

Burnley5

Millwall1

Sheffield Utd3

Mansfield4

Portsmouth1

Arsenal4

Preston0

Wigan1

1/16-finals

Wrexham1

Ipswich0

Hull City0

Chelsea4

Port Vale1

Bristol City0

Oxford Utd0

Sunderland1

Burton0

West Ham1

Macclesfield0

Brentford1

Birmingham1

Leeds2

Norwich3

West Brom1

Aston Villa1

Newcastle Utd3

Manchester City2

Salford0

Grimsby0

Wolves1

Liverpool3

Brighton0

Stoke City1

Fulham2

Southampton2

Leicester1

Burnley1

Mansfield2

Arsenal4

Wigan0

1/8-finals

Wrexham2

Chelsea4

Port Vale1

Sunderland0

West Ham3

Brentford2

Leeds3

Norwich0

Newcastle Utd1

Manchester City3

Wolves1

Liverpool3

Fulham0

Southampton1

Mansfield1

Arsenal2

Quarter-finals

Chelsea7

Port Vale0

West Ham2

Leeds3

Manchester City4

Liverpool0

Southampton2

Arsenal1

Semi-finals

Chelsea1

Leeds0

Manchester City2

Southampton1

Final

Chelsea0

Manchester City1

Southampton vs Arsenal

England

Southampton

Arsenal

Match Events

AI Match Summary

Win Probability Meter

Model Confidence

Goal Probability Engine

Recent Team Form Analysis

H2H

Key Player Impact Analysis

Southampton Compare

Arsenal Compare

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Attack & Defence Capability Index

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Scoring Trends

Recent Form & Match History

Southampton

Arsenal

Tournament Bracket & Draw

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