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Sp. Luqueno vs Libertad Asuncion

Paraguay Paraguay

Copa de Primera Estadio Feliciano Cáceres
Our Tip

Match Events

12'
Sub
Maiz A. In: Bogado G.
Out: Maiz A.
25' Event
Diaz S.
Assist: Maggi I.
29' Event
Melgarejo L.
Assist: Fretes A.

AI Match Summary

The Copa de Primera game between Sp. Luqueno and Libertad Asuncion finished 2-3, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Libertad Asuncion.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

50%
Sp. Luqueno
28%
Draws
22%
Libertad Asuncion
Draw rate projection: 28% Favored: Sp. Luqueno

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

76% / High Confidence
  • Look at the last few games and Libertad Asuncion come out ahead of Sp. Luqueno on wins alone.
  • 50% — that's where the model lands on Sp. Luqueno taking it.
  • European nights carry their own weight — this Copa de Primera fixture won't be treated like a routine game.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 73%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 22%
Over 4.5 Goals 10%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 32.8%
Sp. Luqueno Clean Sheet 68%
Libertad Asuncion Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Sp. Luqueno Libertad Asuncion
Matches Played 30 32
Wins 7 11
Draws 7 4
Losses 16 17
Goals Scored 1.14 1.5
Goals Conceded 1.29 1.75
Expected Goals (xG) 1.14 1.50
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.29 1.75

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

May 10, 2026 Copa de Primera
Sp. Luqueno vs Libertad Asuncion
2:3
Mar 7, 2026 Copa de Primera
Libertad Asuncion vs Sp. Luqueno
1:0
Sep 13, 2025 Copa de Primera
Sp. Luqueno vs Libertad Asuncion
1:4
Jul 5, 2025 Copa de Primera
Libertad Asuncion vs Sp. Luqueno
0:1
May 11, 2025 Copa de Primera
Sp. Luqueno vs Libertad Asuncion
1:0

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Sp. Luqueno Compare

Top Goalscorer Diaz S.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Quintana S.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 0.88
Avg xA / game 0.57

Libertad Asuncion Compare

Top Goalscorer Melgarejo L.
2 Goals
Assists Leader Fretes A.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.36
Avg xA / game 0.83

Sokapicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Sp. Luqueno 59 / 100
Libertad Asuncion 22 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Sp. Luqueno Libertad Asuncion

Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick SPO Win (1)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals & BTTS No
Correct Score 1:0
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

Sokapicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Sp. Luqueno found the back of the net in 67% of recent matches (30 games).

Defensive concern: Libertad Asuncion conceded in 75% of 32 recent games.

H2H data points to 2.60 goals as a typical output.

Solid form: Sp. Luqueno remains unbeaten in 3 of 5 recent matches.

Scoring Trends

Sp. Luqueno VS Libertad Asuncion
1.14 Goals Scored 1.5
1.29 Goals Conceded 1.75
71% Over 1.5 75%
71% Over 2.5 63%
14% Over 3.5 50%

League Standings

PosTeamPWDLGDPts
1Olimpia Asuncion22154337:1749
2Nacional Asuncion22109331:2239
3Cerro Porteno22115630:2238
4Sportivo Ameliano2289527:2133
5Sportivo Trinidense2288630:2432
6Libertad Asuncion2294934:2631
7Guarani2278727:2329
8Recoleta22841035:3228
9Rubio Nu22651115:2623
102 de Mayo22571018:3522
11Sp. Luqueno22551224:3320
12San Lorenzo22361314:4115